Thank God there's no World Cup in 2015 so it's a 12 month year instead of a 11 month release schedule...

Damn! 2015 is shaping to be HUGE.

With so many movies in 2015, I foresee a drop in both 3D supply and demand. Supply, because there will be so many movies that the BTCs could end up eliminating redundant realD showings to open up auditoriums for more movies. Demand, because audiences may well forego 3D even more than they do now, so they can afford to see all these movies.

I would not be surprised if the BTCs cut ticket and concession prices to stimulate demand. With the packed schedule, people could go to the movies more, feel that it's more "affordable," and yet end up spending MORE per capita.

Are these predictions totally insane, or could anyone else see them happening?

Possibly... But cutting concession prices? Heck no. More people are going to be going regardless. If anything, there could be a slight increase.

How many $300m movies are we looking at right now?

The YOY decline from 2015 to 2016 is going to be very depressing.

We don't yet know what mid-level movies are coming out, so it's too early to worry about top-heaviness. The problem with 2012 wasn't that the big releases crowded out the smaller ones; it was the lack of GOOD mid-range films or upper mid-range hits, at least after March. (Leaving out THG, April '12 may have been worse than this last April.) Instead of stuff like 42, The Great Gatsby, Now You See Me, This Is the End, or The Heat, we had American Reunion, The Three Stooges, Dark Shadows, What to Expect When You're Expecting, That's My Boy, Rock of Ages, and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter. Instead of World War Z, we had Prometheus.

If there are good smaller movies and midrange/upper midrange hits, 2015 won't be another 2012. We'll see.

Agree with TServo - too early to call the year top heavy as the jury is still out on mid level releases. Granted it will likely be top heavy due to the sheer size of the top films but how top heavy is to be determined.

Still, everything else would just have to bomb. Even the worst-case scenario probably looks like this:

Finding Dory - $300 million

Independence Day 2 - $250 million

Mockingjay 2 - $350 million

The Avengers 2 - $500 million

Star Wars: Episode VII - $350 million

Pirates of the Caribbean 5 - $200 million

James Bond 24 - $250 million

Inside Out - $200 million

Jurassic Park IV - $150 million

Kung Fu Panda 3 - $150 million

Thats $2.7 billion just from these ten movies. I believe my predictions above are, for the most part, laughably low. I am pretty sure these ten will gross $3+ billion.

Finding Dory - 510m

Independence Day 2 - 240m

Mockingjay 2 - 450m

The Avengers 2 - 560m

Star Wars: Episode VII - 625m

Pirates of the Caribbean 5 - 210m

James Bond 24 - 350m

Inside Out - 350m

Jurassic Park IV - 185m

Kung Fu Panda 3 - 180m

3.31b, that's more like it

2.25b from BV/Pixar alone, hopefully they keep this schedule, will easily be the biggest year for a studio even when adjusted.

Why would Inside Out make $350 million? No original Pixar film made $300 million except for Finding Nemo. Also, $500+ million for Finding Dory is insanity.

Disney/Pixar is gonna have a very strong 2015 fo sho.

Dory will make $350+ mil. $500 mil? I don't think so.

This year is going to be INSANE!, but it's still another year filled with nothing but sequels, remakes/reboots and superhero movies and I am honestly getting tired of it. I mean do we really need another Terminator or Pirates movie ? Nope

Now I know Hollywood is all about making money, but more originality wouldn't hurt once in a while.

Just look at next years line up. Pretty abysmal if you ask me.

November is nuts!

Mocking Jay 2, Bond and Finding Dory. Plus..... Ant Man and Peanuts. They just need to get the latter two out of Bond's weekend - or atleast Antman needs to move back a week or two.

Finding Dory - $350 million

Independence Day 2 - $250 million

Mockingjay 2 - $350 million

The Avengers 2 - $550 million

Star Wars: Episode VII - $500 million

Pirates of the Caribbean 5 - $200 million

James Bond 24 - $250 million

Inside Out - $300 million

Jurassic Park IV - $150 million

Kung Fu Panda 3 - $150 million

Agree I just added 300m to your list above without trying. I guess there is Man of Steel 2 as well as the live action Cinderella etc that can do well.

Yeah they are lining up a string cast and will make that March slot work.

I don't think Cinderella has the visual-effects-appeal appeal or the cast of Alice in Wonderland or Oz: The Great and Powerful. It will be closer to Mirror Mirror in gross than to Oz, though it will still pass $100 million.

1. Star Wars - 225m/600m
2. Avengers 2 - 230m/550m
3. Mockingjay Pt.2 - 200m/450m
4. Finding Dory - 125m/400m
5. Independence Day sequel - 135m/350m
6. Bond 24 - 115m/300m
7. Inside Out - 75m/300m
8. Jurassic Park 4 - 85m/275m
9. Pirates 5 - 70m/200m

Quinto said that Trek 3 would be filming next year. Could Paramount get that out for Christmas 2015? It's not like summer helped Into Darkness much.

Actually, that wouldn't be a bad idea. Paramount has switched Trek from summer to the holiday season twice, and both times the gross and the admissions both increased. IV opened at Thanksgiving 1986, 2 1/2 years after III (whose admissions drop from II mirrors that of STID from ST09) and it improved; VI opened in December 1991, 2 1/2 years after the frontloaded bad-WOM disaster that was V, and it improved. If it's a good movie, I could see it working.

It's either that or M:I 5; they're both Paramount/Bad Robot, so I guess it ultimately depends on when/if Cruise is available for M:I. And where Star Wars opens.

While Abrams-directed Star Wars and Abrams-produced M:I 5 could conceivably coexist like Spielberg-directed Temple of Doom and Spielberg-produced Gremlins did in summer '84, Abrams would not allow the next Trek to be scheduled anywhere near Episode VII - not because of conflict of interest, but because he's smart enough to understand that if the two were in close proximity, Trek would be absolutely murdered. Even if it opened before SW, it's run would basically be over as soon as SW opened (think ASM when TDKR dropped).

If Avengers 2 starts May 2015 and EpVII finishes it, Trek would be caught in the crossfire.

My prediction is Trek 3 in Christmas 2015, M:I 5 either in July 2015 if it gets made quickly, and summer 2016 if it doesn't. (Or put it in August 2015 in the "Bourne" slot - with so much stuff in May-July, 2015 may see the return of higher-profile August releases like in the late 90s and the 2000s...)

But the 50 year anniversary for STAR TREK is 2016...

You know, I actually think Star Wars shoudl take Pirates' slot and Pirates 5 should go for December. I think it'd be a good time for it.

How did I forget about the Trek anniversary? In that case, Trek WILL open in 2016.

Agreed re: Star Wars in 2016.