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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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 Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club I have the empty marketplace and the economy also factored in in making this prediction. 
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| Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:00 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Magnus wrote: 2001 wrote: This is more in Pirates 2 situation in terms of competition/hype and all. Agreed. Which is why the max TF2 can do is 450m. A POTC2 increase gives it 445m. There is no real reason why it should have a bigger increase than POTC2. The fact that has a year less inflation working for it, not as strong DVD sales, not as strong as WOM, and the big fact that Transformers was already a fanbase film whereas POTC had zero fanbase. are all reasons why getting a POTC2 increase is not likley. agreed. nice points. I don't think anyone can logically argue that this will decrease from the first, it has a lot more going for it, (just like New Moon will) but at the same time, it really shouldn't increase the way Shrek 2, or even POTC2 did. It's just a different scenario. 400m+? Sure. 500m+ not a popsicles chance in a grease fire. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:04 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23386
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club It doesnt need to increase as much as Shrek or POTC. An increase to $375m would be enough. The fact that June is rather week will only help it.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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| Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:11 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Magnus wrote: 2001 wrote: I have the empty marketplace and the economy also factored in in making this prediction. The empty marketplace doesn't work. While Transformers has an open marketplace leading up to it, it has tough competition after it opens. POTC2 had fairly strong competition before it opened, but had nothing after it. So that kind of negates that. The economy will help it...which is why I think it's going to have an increase in the high 20s instead of the low 20s. I know, but I think as long as it opens THIS huge, and has good WoM, the competition ahead may not matter that much.
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| Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:22 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club You have to admit though, this isn't opening in TDK's summer, where two films have already blasted past 300m (unless we have some huge suprises this year) when TF2 opens the biggest summer film will probably be only a little over 250m (that's my guess for UP) and could very well be less than that. Different kind of summer.
_________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:37 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club What about Shrek 2? WoM was never on TDK level and faced HP3. Anyways, the point of this club is the exclusivity of it, well, it's also the insanity  . Everyone would join a 400m+ club, 425m+ wouldn't be too risky. I'm not 100% confident in this happening and I will be satisfied with anything from 375m-425m. 425m+ and more would be fantastic.
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| Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:46 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club It has nothing to do with hype (well, not really). The Dark Knight made as much as it possible could. Again, just check the drops. Fri: 49 million Sat: 48 million Sun: 44 million Transformer WONT top that period for self explainatory reasons, but than it ALSO has more things going against it to make it even lower. Quote: Sure, but the first 'real' Transformers film just came out 2 years ago and is yet to stand the test of time. It's stupid compare it to Batman/Indy/Star Wars in terms of overall cinematic appeal. We can comapre the 1st film, and the 1st Bats/Indy/SW was much bigger than the 1st Transformers. I dont think Pirates is a good comparison for anything otuside of audience demographics; those movies had very different runs. A better comparison, even though they opened in dif. dates, would the original Mummy film Quote: You can't conclude with that yet, TF franchise has only released one film. Batman franchise may have 6 films already but is inconsistent in terms of popularity. You missed the point. TRANSFORMERS ISNT AS POPULAR AS TDK WAS. Period. Its star hasnt died. The marketing isnt nearly as good. The name isnt nearly as popular. And theres no fucking way this goes down in gross. Wednesday: 52 million (roughly 10 million from Midnights) Thursday: 29.4 (-30% from midnightless Friday) Friday: 34.3m (+17%) Saturday: 37.9m (+10%) Sunday: 31.4m (-17%) Opening weekend: 103.6 5 day: 185.0 6/29: 14.2 6/30: 13.0 7/1: 9.5 7/2: 8.5 7/3: 15.0 7/4: 16.0 7/5: 19.0 7/6: 15.0 7/7: 6.0 7/8: 5 7/9: 4.2 3rd weekend: 23 million Weekedays: 12 4th weekend: 14.2 Weekdays: 7.3 5th weekend: 9.3 Weekdays: 5.2 6th weekend: 6.8 Weeekdays: 4.8 7th weekend: 5.2 Rest of run: 18 million Total - 415. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:52 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Monsieur Marin wrote: You have to admit though, this isn't opening in TDK's summer, where two films have already blasted past 300m (unless we have some huge suprises this year) when TF2 opens the biggest summer film will probably be only a little over 250m (that's my guess for UP) and could very well be less than that. Different kind of summer. Transfoemr CANNOT do what TDK did, Its too late. We'd know by now. TDK had event status by March of 2008. Everybody knew about it. It had a SUPER rare combo of: -one of the greatest marketing campaigns of the century -best picture-esque reviews -7 month long media frenzy that sent buzz over the top. Imo the best test of whether a film has buzz (and not just hype) is talk. How often do you hear about it, and from whome? TDK was more talked about in 2008 than any movie I can recall. Not Sith or Kong in 05, Spidey in 04 or 02, or releaded in 2002 come close to the "public buzz" TDK had. Ok, maybe Spidey 1 does. The only I know that is really on TDKs level would be Harry Poter 1 and thats 8 years ago. But Transformers...if TDK was a 100, Transformers is about a 25. TDK film events are SUPER rare. Its a perfect storm of events the studio cant even control. Its when studio marketing and free marketing (media coverage and public buzz) reach maximum levels. NEITHER is happening with Transformers; seriously, where is the marketing? Transformers likely wont reach event status until May; hell probably not even June. There hasnt been enough marketing thus far. Itll change, but they still have missed a lot of time. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
Last edited by Excel on Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:58 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club GottaGetDat wrote: A better comparison, even though they opened in dif. dates, would the original Mummy film Now way.  GottaGetDat wrote: You missed the point. TRANSFORMERS ISNT AS POPULAR AS TDK WAS. Period. Its star hasnt died. The marketing isnt nearly as good. The name isnt nearly as popular. I never said Transformers is as popular as TDK. Watch the marketing explode (literally) come summer start. 
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| Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:01 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club 2001 wrote: Watch the marketing explode (literally) come summer start. I am sure it will, but it wont matter. Its missed too much time to possibly be able to make up that much room on TDK. I dont think you understand how rare box office openings like the one TDK had are. To expect arguably its most untouchable record-the 5 day gross-to fall within a year is just absurd. Really. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:04 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club GottaGetDat wrote: I dont think you understand how rare box office openings like the one TDK had are. To expect arguably its most untouchable record-the 5 day gross-to fall within a year is just absurd. Really. Same was said for every other film that broke records. You're making me say it again. SM2 5-day adjusts close to 200m+, that was 5 years ago. SM3 would have porbably done the same had it opened on a Wednesday, with more frontloading.
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| Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:13 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club And really, after his biggest success to date, never doubt the man himself. 
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| Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:21 am |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club GottaGetDat wrote: Monsieur Marin wrote: You have to admit though, this isn't opening in TDK's summer, where two films have already blasted past 300m (unless we have some huge suprises this year) when TF2 opens the biggest summer film will probably be only a little over 250m (that's my guess for UP) and could very well be less than that. Different kind of summer. Transfoemr CANNOT do what TDK did, Its too late. We'd know by now. TDK had event status by March of 2008. Everybody knew about it. It had a SUPER rare combo of: -one of the greatest marketing campaigns of the century -best picture-esque reviews -7 month long media frenzy that sent buzz over the top. Imo the best test of whether a film has buzz (and not just hype) is talk. How often do you hear about it, and from whome? TDK was more talked about in 2008 than any movie I can recall. Not Sith or Kong in 05, Spidey in 04 or 02, or releaded in 2002 come close to the "public buzz" TDK had. Ok, maybe Spidey 1 does. The only I know that is really on TDKs level would be Harry Poter 1 and thats 8 years ago. But Transformers...if TDK was a 100, Transformers is about a 25. TDK film events are SUPER rare. Its a perfect storm of events the studio cant even control. Its when studio marketing and free marketing (media coverage and public buzz) reach maximum levels. NEITHER is happening with Transformers; seriously, where is the marketing? Transformers likely wont reach event status until May; hell probably not even June. There hasnt been enough marketing thus far. Itll change, but they still have missed a lot of time. Wow, not the point I was making at all. If you looked at any of my prior posts, I was saying how ridiculous anything remotely near TDK is. I was simply saying competition is different, it's not opening in a summer where two HUGE event films have already landed. There will probably only be two films over the 200m mark when this hits (UP/T4) so it is a different ball game competition wise. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Mon Apr 06, 2009 12:28 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club It's happening, bitches.
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| Sat Apr 18, 2009 9:57 am |
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the ultimate biu
Star Trek XI
Joined: Sun Jun 08, 2008 3:37 am
Posts: 322
Location: London
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club I think I am in this club.....and after the showcase clip I am definitely thinking this could be a winning club. http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=54632_________________ I demand a SACRAFICE
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| Sat Apr 18, 2009 3:49 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club with 6-7pm showings
Tues: 26.5m
Wed: 55.5m +110%
Thur: 33.5m -40%
Fri: 38.0m +15%
Sat: 40.5m +5%
Sun: 36.5m -10%
5-Day: 230.5m
Mon: 20.05m -45%
Tue: 16.00m -20%
Opening Wk: 266.55m
Wed: 11.25m -35%
Thur: 10.00m -10%
9-Day: 287.80m
Fri: 20.00m +100%
10-Day: 307.80m
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:05 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40602
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club I'm waiting for the trailer, the first teaser unimpressed me. I'm gonna need TDK-level marketing to predict this
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:21 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club - NEW FOOTAGE!
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:33 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club - NEW FOOTAGE! Magnus wrote: People are aware. And people aren't changing their minds. 
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 2:08 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23386
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club - NEW FOOTAGE! That showcase clip makes the film look pretty damn amazing. $400m+ is looking better and better now.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 2:14 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club - NEW FOOTAGE! Magnus wrote: Every club needs an annoying naysayer. In the end though, you're one of them whose gonna regret this. 
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 11:57 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club - NEW FOOTAGE! 2001, when people make predictions assuming the unreleased trailers will amaze them...when they actually see the trailers, and are amazed, their predictions wont be going up.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 12:12 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club - NEW FOOTAGE! Magnus wrote: No K.G., no prob wrote: 2001, when people make predictions assuming the unreleased trailers will amaze them...when they actually see the trailers, and are amazed, their predictions wont be going up. Word. FAIL Shack wrote: I'm waiting for the trailer, the first teaser unimpressed me. I'm gonna need TDK-level marketing to predict this MadGez wrote: That showcase clip makes the film look pretty damn amazing. $400m+ is looking better and better now.
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 12:34 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club - NEW FOOTAGE! Magnus wrote: I was speaking for myself. I expect amazing marketing, so amazing marketing isn't going to change my mind. WRONG Magnus wrote: I do not expect an amazing marketing for Transformers 2, so an amazing marketing campaign may change my mind! _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 12:43 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/475m+ Club - NEW FOOTAGE! Magnus wrote: I was speaking for myself. I expect amazing marketing, so amazing marketing isn't going to change my mind. More shit blowing up in the trailers like you've always jerked about won't change you're mind?
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| Sun Apr 19, 2009 12:46 pm |
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