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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 25332
Location: Classified
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread New Prediction - $66M opening, $330M total. Lack of marketing up to this point will keep it from reaching it's potential.
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| Sun Jul 26, 2009 4:57 pm |
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WarMaster506
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2009 2:38 am
Posts: 92
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Thats what im talking about. If Avatar makes this, i will be in shock. 525m domestic 750 OS 1275 WW
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| Sun Jul 26, 2009 5:13 pm |
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Lotan
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:25 pm
Posts: 1222
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread ChipMunky wrote: That was pathetic.
You're now officially the worst member of KJ. Who was before him?
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 1:39 am |
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critch
Speed Racer
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 10:36 am
Posts: 124
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread I've come around, hopefully if FOX decides to market this it'll get a huge opening, but at the very least with some trailers and tv presence and if the looks are what people say they are, 75 mil. Legs are going to be insane. The story is excellent, and some of the things I'm not even sure how they're going to pull off. 350-400 finish. WW will top a billion.
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 6:39 am |
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Lotan
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:25 pm
Posts: 1222
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread 600 Int.? Why would a world care that much about USA sci-fi non-sequel/franchise without stars? Except if Japan pulls 100mln+.
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 7:04 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread 200-250 Million Domestically if this is lucky for people outside the Comic-Con crowd if they even show interest in this.. Unfortunately, even if for the grace of God I were lucky and was actually right in my prediction, I'd have to declare this movie a BOMB based on how much this cost to make + the marketing cost which all together will be around 350 Million or more.. This movie would have to make at LEAST 450 Million domestically or more to even make a profit and that's not happening..
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 7:23 am |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread The Incredible Hulk:
budget: $150m + God knows hoch much for marketing = at least $200m
domestic gross: $135m
BOMB!
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:08 am |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread MR. GREEN wrote: 200-250 Million Domestically if this is lucky for people outside the Comic-Con crowd if they even show interest in this.. Unfortunately, even if for the grace of God I were lucky and was actually right in my prediction, I'd have to declare this movie a BOMB based on how much this cost to make + the marketing cost which all together will be around 350 Million or more.. This movie would have to make at LEAST 450 Million domestically or more to even make a profit and that's not happening.. So when Avatar breaks out will you use the sheep mentality excuse or Titanic nostalgia? I just want to be ready.
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:48 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread I might have to reconsider just because I'm predicting the same thing as BKB now. Maybe.
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:45 am |
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Nebs
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:01 pm
Posts: 6385
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread $65m/$200m
_________________
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 11:37 am |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 9998
Location: Australia
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread I think a record breaking opening is gauranteed, it'll beat I Am Legend for sure.
I'm thinking $75-80m OW with a total gross north of $340m.
_________________
Im Archangel. Telin le thaed.
Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are
Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart
If I had only felt how it feels to be yours
I would have known what I've been living for all along
What I've been living for
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 11:24 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Opening: $56.6 million
Total: $275.1 million (4.86)
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| Mon Jul 27, 2009 11:32 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread MR. GREEN wrote: 200-250 Million Domestically if this is lucky for people outside the Comic-Con crowd if they even show interest in this.. Unfortunately, even if for the grace of God I were lucky and was actually right in my prediction, I'd have to declare this movie a BOMB based on how much this cost to make + the marketing cost which all together will be around 350 Million or more.. This movie would have to make at LEAST 450 Million domestically or more to even make a profit and that's not happening.. Well, first of all: the budget is currently being speculated as between: 190m-240m, so you're counting on between 110m-160m worth of marketing? Yikes. Secondly, a movie has to make at least 100m more than the budget+marketing cost domestically to turn a profit? Wow, if that's the case I'm amazed movies are still being made considering how few films actually manage to do that. BKB: there are things called "International" release, which should garner at least 300m+ (could be way more, I don't follow foreign very closely) and then there's DVD sales and rentals (where the moneys really at) plus toys and other small sales that will be the icing on the cake. It looks to me like Avatar can make 200m domestically and still easily turn a profit. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 12:04 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread loyalfromlondon wrote: MR. GREEN wrote: 200-250 Million Domestically if this is lucky for people outside the Comic-Con crowd if they even show interest in this.. Unfortunately, even if for the grace of God I were lucky and was actually right in my prediction, I'd have to declare this movie a BOMB based on how much this cost to make + the marketing cost which all together will be around 350 Million or more.. This movie would have to make at LEAST 450 Million domestically or more to even make a profit and that's not happening.. So when Avatar breaks out will you use the sheep mentality excuse or Titanic nostalgia? I just want to be ready.
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 3:13 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread John Savage wrote: MR. GREEN wrote: 200-250 Million Domestically if this is lucky for people outside the Comic-Con crowd if they even show interest in this.. Unfortunately, even if for the grace of God I were lucky and was actually right in my prediction, I'd have to declare this movie a BOMB based on how much this cost to make + the marketing cost which all together will be around 350 Million or more.. This movie would have to make at LEAST 450 Million domestically or more to even make a profit and that's not happening.. Well, first of all: the budget is currently being speculated as between: 190m-240m, so you're counting on between 110m-160m worth of marketing? Yikes. Secondly, a movie has to make at least 100m more than the budget+marketing cost domestically to turn a profit? Wow, if that's the case I'm amazed movies are still being made considering how few films actually manage to do that. BKB: there are things called "International" release, which should garner at least 300m+ (could be way more, I don't follow foreign very closely) and then there's DVD sales and rentals (where the moneys really at) plus toys and other small sales that will be the icing on the cake. It looks to me like Avatar can make 200m domestically and still easily turn a profit. 
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 3:14 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread zingy wrote: I might have to reconsider just because I'm predicting the same thing as BKB now. Maybe.
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 3:16 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread MR. GREEN wrote: zingy wrote: I might have to reconsider just because I'm predicting the same thing as BKB now. Maybe. You're predicting what I'm predicting, buddy. 
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 11:07 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread I figure since we predicted it first, we should be safe from BKB's curse.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 11:57 am |
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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am
Posts: 5264
Location: Wakanda
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread I think Cameron got lucky with the "Titanic", so there has to be a ying to his yang. With a little over four month's to go, this movie has no buzz outside of the internet and his fanbase and we see how that worked out for "SOAP" If this stays with it's December release date It will bomb to something like 40/150. Most likely I see this being pushed back to next summer for a much better opening and marketing strategy if that happens I see 100/300+
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:14 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
Posts: 8202
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Passionate Thug wrote: I think Cameron got lucky with the "Titanic", so there has to be a ying to his yang. With a little over four month's to go, this movie has no buzz outside of the internet and his fanbase and we see how that worked out for "SOAP" If this stays with it's December release date It will bomb to something like 40/150. Most likely I see this being pushed back to next summer for a much better opening and marketing strategy if that happens I see 100/300+ When will it release next summer? I don't see any spot. Maybe they should take July 1st or release it on the weekend Predators comes out. Move Predators to 2011.
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:18 pm |
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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am
Posts: 5264
Location: Wakanda
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread LadiesMan217 wrote: Passionate Thug wrote: I think Cameron got lucky with the "Titanic", so there has to be a ying to his yang. With a little over four month's to go, this movie has no buzz outside of the internet and his fanbase and we see how that worked out for "SOAP" If this stays with it's December release date It will bomb to something like 40/150. Most likely I see this being pushed back to next summer for a much better opening and marketing strategy if that happens I see 100/300+ When will it release next summer? I don't see any spot. Maybe they should take July 1st or release it on the weekend Predators comes out. Move Predators to 2011. That's what I would do. They could launch the trailer during the Superbowl in Feburary and really set this thing up with the right awareness with 6 month's worth of marketing. I don't see Predators as a tentpole film anyway, move it to January
Last edited by Passionate Thug on Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:21 pm |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread you guys are way too panicky. At least wait until Avatar Day.
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:22 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
Posts: 8202
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Passionate Thug wrote: LadiesMan217 wrote: Passionate Thug wrote: I think Cameron got lucky with the "Titanic", so there has to be a ying to his yang. With a little over four month's to go, this movie has no buzz outside of the internet and his fanbase and we see how that worked out for "SOAP" If this stays with it's December release date It will bomb to something like 40/150. Most likely I see this being pushed back to next summer for a much better opening and marketing strategy if that happens I see 100/300+ When will it release next summer? I don't see any spot. Maybe they should take July 1st or release it on the weekend Predators comes out. Move Predators to 2011. That's what I would do. They could launch the trailer during the Superbowl in Feburary and really set this thing up with the right awareness with 6 month's worth of marketing. I don't see Predators as a tentpole film anyway, move it to January Predators hasn't even started shooting. LOL No casting has been announced nothing. I think that will be delayed to August, September or October 2010. August would be brilliant as Predators would be the last action movie of summer.
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:24 pm |
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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am
Posts: 5264
Location: Wakanda
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread loyalfromlondon wrote: you guys are way too panicky. At least wait until Avatar Day. That's the thing only Fanboys will care about avatar day, plus it's still a closed Trailer, so even if it's good how do you market it after that especially if no official trailer follows immediately after that. All you'll have is the internet boards lighting up but you won't be able to reshow the footage or analyze it. I hope someone leaks it on torrents virally
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:26 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
Posts: 8202
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread loyalfromlondon wrote: you guys are way too panicky. At least wait until Avatar Day. Hopefully you,me,nazgul,bj etc who are supporting this film won't be dissapointed on avatar day. I will just watch the teaser trailer. Not sure if I should watch 15 minutes footage in theatre as that could spoil some stuff. Hopefully fox & JC have cut one hell of a teaser trailer.
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| Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:26 pm |
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