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Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm
Posts: 4110
Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Yeah, the audience I saw The Bucket List really, really LOVED it, so I see it having really long legs. $100 million might be a bit of a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibility.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:29 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) MTC Tracking (4-Day): CLOVERFIELD: 41 27 DRESSES: 26 MAD MONEY: 5 http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?0114141949.notfabio
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 3:39 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) I can't believe tracking shows $41M and $26M openers over MLK Weekend. These look like tracking numbers for a weekend in June or something.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 3:47 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Magnus wrote: Jeff wrote: I'd be willing to almost bet money it won't break $30 million over the 4-day.
Anyone remember Snakes on a Plane? Or Grindhouse? The thing is though is that it's a easier film to sell than both of those. I mean, monster-attacks-NYC. It's been done before. This is just doing it at a different angle. Snakes on a Plane was a DTV film that was pushed as a major film. And mainstream people didn't know what the hell Grindhouse was. It's going to break 35m+ 4-day for sure. But it may not be the mega-opener some are predicting. I've got money on the line it won't.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 3:58 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) I'm not feeling CLOVERFIELD at all. I think it's being highly overpredicted. It's like SNAKES ON A PLANE. I really want to see it, but I don't hear anyone talking about it. I work at a video store and have heard several customers mentioning 27 DRESSES, but nobody is mentioning CLOVERFIELD. And the people I work with don't think it looks very good.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 5:02 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) 27 DRESSES will be the 100 Million grosser of January. There's no way it isn't making 100 Million. CLOVERFIELD likely won't. Mark my words  . The only way it would is if it happens to have some insanely huge opening, like over 60 Million. THE BUCKET LIST has a better chance at making 100 Million.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 5:14 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) I'm surprised Mad Money is tracking so low. I was expecting it to open between $8,000,000-$10,000,000. Oh well, Bombs away! 
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 5:45 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) It looks like a bomb from the ads. I was expecting 4-5 Million. Who is going to go see that for their chick flick when they could go see 27 DRESSES? There really isn't anyone left to see MAD MONEY if both CLOVERFIELD and DRESSES end up being hits.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 5:51 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Yeah that's true.
Anyway, YAY for Katherine Heigl.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 5:57 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23386
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Told you guys - the Oz opening bodes extremely well for 27D. It beat American Gangster!!! It basically tied I Am Legend's 2nd weekend gross coming off a record opening. So there is plenty of demand for it. Expect over $30m for the 4day.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 7:08 pm |
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Michael.
No Wire Tampons!
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am
Posts: 23283
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Libs wrote: filmboy wrote: I am not sure if 27 Dresses will do that well. First of all they are having way to many SP for the films. Sp are mostly done to get word out on the film. Now they are doing another SP. WOM is that this film is nothing new nor a film to rush out and see. The reviews at rotten tomatoes are not looking good as well. It has 27% on rotten tomatoes. All these SP will take away money from the film and also putting this film out with another Chick Flick called Mad Money was stupid. That might be the reason why tracking is going down. I see a 14 million for a 4 day. I think this movie will do Because I said so numbers. It not like women are craving for a Chick Flick, they just had one called PS I Love You. Uh, thanks for the exposition. But, anyway, I am quite sure you are incorrect. How do you know women aren't craving a chick flick? P.S. I Love You doing as well as it is despite ghastly reviews is probably an indication that they are craving one. Ghastly is an over-statement. And PS I Love You is actually very well liked and spoken of. I think the fact its a "weepy" one has worked strongly in its favour. 27 Dresses certainly wont have its longevity.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 8:56 pm |
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Michael.
No Wire Tampons!
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am
Posts: 23283
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) By the way.
I am now feeling 27 Dresses might be one of those movies that is over-estimated then dissapoints. Either that or its going to bow to around $30m.
So right now, either $28m on way to $95m-$110m
or
$17 on road to $65
I think that this kind of romantic comedy at this time of year is clever. And the marketing has been good. Heigl is weird, i dont think women love her as much as studios put out, but they do RECOGNISE her and know her weekly on Greys and i think thats helping a lot. Certainly shes a softer, more friendly prospect than say a tabloid queen from a similar show like Eva Longoria.
I think the Desperate Housewives cast are unfortunately too old to share the crossover appeal the Greys cast enjoy.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:03 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) *****MY PREDICTIONS*****
27 DRESSES - 27.8 Million (3-Day)/32.5 Million (4-Day)
CLOVERFIELD - 19.7 Million (3-Day)/22.7 Million (4-Day)
MAD MONEY - 5.5 Million (3-Day)/6.6 Million (4-Day)
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:36 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
Posts: 8202
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Mike wrote: *****MY PREDICTIONS*****
27 DRESSES - 27.8 Million (3-Day)/32.5 Million (4-Day)
CLOVERFIELD - 19.7 Million (3-Day)/22.7 Million (4-Day)
MAD MONEY - 5.5 Million (3-Day)/6.6 Million (4-Day) That would be something.
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:43 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Mike wrote: *****MY PREDICTIONS*****
27 DRESSES - 27.8 Million (3-Day)/32.5 Million (4-Day)
CLOVERFIELD - 19.7 Million (3-Day)/22.7 Million (4-Day)
MAD MONEY - 5.5 Million (3-Day)/6.6 Million (4-Day) laughable cloverfield prediction, I would not be surprised if the film tripled your prediction. 60m+ for sure  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Jan 14, 2008 11:49 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) You know, it could explode and do great, but there's even more of a chance that it will be a disappointment. So I'm going to have to brave the ridicule for now and we'll see what happens.
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:07 am |
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JMorphin
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:58 am
Posts: 1335
Location: Austin, TX
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) I wouldn't be suprised if Cloverfield and 27 Dresses were neck-and-neck for 30 4-day, I mean that would be amazing already 
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:18 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) JMorphin wrote: I wouldn't be suprised if Cloverfield and 27 Dresses were neck-and-neck for 30 4-day, I mean that would be amazing already ha, Cloverfield is going to blow the doors of the record _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:37 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) ALL 3-day
CLoverfieLd - 33m
27 Dresses - 19m
The Bucket List - 36% drop
First Sunday - 54% drop
Juno - 25% drop
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:38 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) the wimpy predictions so remind BJ of 300 last year, a 60m+ wknd is assured  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:40 am |
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Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm
Posts: 4110
Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) This doesn't have as much real world buzz as 300. I heard people I know who don't really give a rat's ass about movies talking about 300 a couple months before it even came out. On the other hand, the only place away from the Internet I've heard anyone talk about Cloverfield was inside the auditorium Transformers showed in back in July.
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:42 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Webslinger wrote: This doesn't have as much real world buzz as 300. I heard people I know who don't really give a rat's ass about movies talking about 300 a couple months before it even came out. On the other hand, the only place away from the Internet I've heard anyone talk about Cloverfield was inside the auditorium Transformers showed in back in July. Im sure there were similar opinions of 300 vs sin city last year. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:45 am |
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Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm
Posts: 4110
Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) No, it was pretty clear that 300 would easily pass up Sin City.
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:54 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Webslinger wrote: No, it was pretty clear that 300 would easily pass up Sin City. show me. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 1:02 am |
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Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm
Posts: 4110
Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
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Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend) Industry expectations generally had it passing Sin City's $29 million start. On top of that, tracking was in the 40's if I recall correctly. It was pretty clear that 300 was going to be big, just not as big as it was.
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| Tue Jan 15, 2008 1:04 am |
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