76.5/273.2

So you think the sequal to to film with some of the best legs of summer 03 can not top the first :?: thats crazy its now to the point that if the first makes a lot of money the sequal will make as much or more. In spideys case the first one had made a killing at the box office. As I said befor Pirates 2 will easily top the first. It will open well over 100m and manage a nice 2.5-3.0 multiplyer 8) The first film made 70m in five days I think the second can make over 100m in three because there will be a large rush factor to the movie. Thats why it will be lucky to get a multiplyer over 3.0 8) You said already that 300m is much easyer to get now yet you still think this film will not get over 300m I just dont understand that :?

Well, I do think that it will open with $95-105 million, but I don't see it getting a 3-multiplier

By the way, why dont you come over to that 2006-thread of mine. I'm wondering abour some of your predictions there.

lol there to high to post as of now but I expect the opening for the big films of 06 to be massive Im talking opening wknds over 100m and first wks well over 150m but consistent 50% drops after that I dont expect there to be legs after this year there will be openings then plunges. How much a film makes will soon depend on how much it opens with. I think that the opening wknd record will be broken by two films in 06 both being friday releases of couse 8) theases two films wont just breat the record they will smash it, Then they will plunge 8) one scoreing around the 350m area and the other not getting past 300m. Ill post them soon just to show you how I think the average blockbuster will perform soon 8)

Okay. I expect 60% to become a regular drop for blockbusters in the summer, though.

I posted check it out :wink:

I would argue the reason the Spiderman 2 couldn't beat the original was for the same reason that the Harry Potter sequels couldn't. Both Spiderman and Harry Potter were anticipated films. The hype before each was huge. Everyone knew they were coming out. Therefore, they did not have the ability to expand the fanbase much on DVD. There were few people for both franchises that were entirely unfamiliar with the films or the source material before release. POTC on the other hand was something that did not have huge hype going into opening weekend. That's why it was able to add so many more fans over the course of its run, and why I'm certain it has more new fans on DVD. There are many people who no doubt had only heard of POTC from their friends, who probably loved it, and then checked it out on DVD.

Furthermore, many for Spiderman and Harry Potter saw them because of the hype. These were often people that might not have disliked the films, but they likely decided that it wasn't for them. For POTC the people who saw it were almost entirely people who did so because of WOM, or people who spread the WOM. In both cases they are likely to return. When people have a film recommended to them by their friends, their friends are usually right in thinking they will like it. So, POTC should retain much more of its audience for this reason.

Additionally, Spiderman might have had good WOM (Harry Potter did as well), but that's nothing compared to POTC. As I said, it had some of the most amazing legs in recent years; WOM was on an entirely different level then almost any other film. So, that alone is a huge difference compared to SM.

Finally, based on your arguement, how do you explain Shrek 2? It grossed far more then the original even though the original was huge. If a sequel to a 267m film could reach 441m, why couldn't a sequel to a 305m film?

How do you explain Meet the Fockers? It should finish with about the 280m you predict for POTC 2. If a sequel to a 165m (?) film can reach the 280m level, why would a sequel to a much bigger hit not earn more? Are you really going to tell me that POTC has not provided more potential for POTC 2 then Meet the Parents did for MTF?

Finally, how do you explain LOTR? Both sequels were able to gross more then their predecessors despite having those massive grosses. Also, even FOTR was anticipated with quite a bit of hype, and the fanbase from the books. Yet, it was still able to increase in gross with each film due to excellent reception. I expect POTC with equally good reception, to increase by more with the sequel as it was not a highly anticipated film.

By 2006 we should see quite a few drop 70%+ in their second weekends. I would guess that Superman will open with 125m, yet only finish with about 300m.

Yep the legs are going to get realy bad soon, realy soon 8)

We might have one this year.

yeah my prediction for The Ring 2 shows that its starting already 8) but its not going to start happening to every majore release for a while though 8)

You must have prepared it for a while, eh?

The Lord of the Rings is a phenomenon that I won't even get into a discussion over. The love that LOTR has received by EVERYONE cannot be matched by the praise any movie has ever received with the exception of Titanic I think. The major awards, surely didn't hurt either.

Shrek 2 is an exception that proves the rule. Also CGI animation is on a constant rise. Nowadays, CGI animated movies are all surefire hits. If the first Shrek was released this year, it'd have made $300+ million even without te predecessor's success.

Spider-Man had hype, a fanbase and amazing marketing. It opened HUGE and had good legs. In contrats to Harry Potter, though, it was ACTUALLY a well-liked movie. All fans loved it. Harry Potter 1 was received as rather mediocre as far as I remember.

Meet the Fockers is outgrossing the predecessor because $165 million isn't exactly a difficult gross to top, is it? It's on its course to break $270 million. At least the same will be achieved by Pirates 2 as well, but I doubt much more.

If well-loved originals guarantee successful sequels that outgrossed the originals, how come The Lost World: Jurassic Park didn't outgross Jurassic Park? Jurassic Park sure had legs no worse than Pirates of the Caribbean and it was an adventure movie too. There was enough time between the both to build up a fanbase.

How come Men in Black II didn't outgross MiB? That film sure had a following and was well-loved.

There are many of similar examples.

Well-loved originals do not guarantee successful sequels. Well-loved originals guarantee frontloaded sequels. After the opening weekend, the sequel is on its own, and has to generate its own legs on its own quality.

The love for MiB 1 was enough for a frontloaded weekend on MiB 2, but did MiB 2 sucked, and the legs showed it. We all know what happened to the Matrices. Jurassic Park is a special case. The love for the original JP was the CGI, not the story. Once CGI dinosaurs became old hat, people realized that they didn't care about JP, just CGI.

Sorry all, but there are too many variables to make a single-variable comparison. For example, PotC is likely to be a high-quality* sequel following a no-hype great-WOM original, with no new technology invovled. You have to compare PotC to a franchise where ALL the characteristics are similar, not just one. So, what other franchises had a no-hype great-WOM original and a high-quality sequel? Star Wars and Empire Strikes Back? Indiana Jones? They didn't have DVD to help out. LotR is similar but is a sort of exception. Reloaded would work if it had been a better movie. Most other franchises have pre-hype, or else they wouldn't have gotten made in the first place. And this doesn't even take release dates into account. It's a bloody mess, which is why I'm predicting that PotC 2 will make about the same as PotC 1, with inflation.

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*PotC has the same cast and creative team. Therefore, I'm assuming that PotC will be about the same quality as PotC 1, at least until I see a trailer.

It will not do over 60mill in its opening day,Why didnt SM2 do it?

I predict a 90mill opening and 270mill total.

People loved the story to Jurassic Park.

All the most popular sequels have had huge opening weekend day by days...if anything friday WILL help this movie for an overall total..

if Matrix can do 37 mill on a Thurs I dont see whay this cant do 37 mil on a Friday...
If Shrek 2 and spiderman 2 can make 44 million on a Sat i dont see why this cant make at least 40 mill on a Sat
and if spiderman shrek2 matrix can all do 25-30 mill on sunday this should be able as well

thus giving it a 100 - 112 opening weekend..

dont forget as well by 2006 there will be more theatres, prices will be more etc... I dont think its that far out there considering how frontloaded this movie will be I dont know of a single person that didnt like this movie *shrug*

I'd give Pirates at least $100 million on it's opening weekend. Barring some unforeseen disaster that is.

hm, after episode III's opening day this prediction seems somewhat posible now.

Exactly Episode II is what shows that it's impossible. POTC 2 will come NOWEHERE near ROTS' hype and you expect it to outdo its first day?

Also, you expect the opening weekend record to be beaten by over $40 million right away?

100/360.

Yes I do, Sith was a 4 day opener that suffered from having two bad prequals that came out before it, It might have got up to 60m if ep I and II had been better. This is a three day opener that is coming off one of the best films of all time. The first film is crazily beloved by a lot of the general movie going public, not to mention all the fanboys this franchise has gatherd over the past 2 years now. Lecter i think you will be very suprised next year when this film breezes past spiderman with ease. There are many films that would have done it by noiw if they had been released on a friday you know :wink:

bigger opening crappier legs.

90/265

Why would it have crappier legs? Hell, Shrek 2 pulled a 4x multiplier. I don't see why this can't achieve 3.6x.

Shrek/drek 2 = lucky POS anyways along with the crappy legs i also thing you should expect a 400m+ gross because this film is headed there :wink: