How dare you see my most anticipated of the year 2 days before me! ](*,)

28.5 million opening weekend 90 million total

Don't worry, I'll PM you all the spoilers

Muahahaha

Ok after superbowl ad and reading in some boards i think it will cross 100 Mio
So my prediction is 40/101 ( :wink: )

Why? I dont see any competiton in the near future for this "popcorn, nice CGI, a bit Horro, nice action" entertaining movie.
Im maybe wrong but all I hear is . " Theres nothing else out like this and it looks actually pretty cool" Normaly thats a good sign \:D/

There is a free preview screening at my school this Wednesday but I had class when they handed out the tickets. =(

Should have a higher 3-day than the original Matrix.

I'm drastically changing my prediction...

Opening: $13.9
Total: $35.0

The Matrix has ruined Keanu Reeves' dark action movie career, plus the heaven/hell action is not a very good draw. The average movie goer would see this as a Matrix spinoff.

This one of many movies in the past months that are mostly internet audience based that have performed in the $11 to $16 million opening range such as: Elektra, Blade Trinity, Team America, Sky Captain, and even Alexander...

I really cant see it opening that low,Micasey. Well not that low considering it was also shown with the Superbowl ads and the trailers have been shown since summer. Thats quite alot of marketing for the movie. Not to mention it borders on the horror terriotory and the trailers have been getting quite some positive reaction

Il probably go with a 26 million opening, I hope I dont regret it

This seems like Pitch Black, which opened to $11 million on the exact same day and weekend in 2000.

The success to recent horror films is their simplicity in the concept. Constantine seems really complex and its effects look choppy.

The movie is shown as a horror movie. Hell, even Exorcist opened to $18 million. Yes, I know that was probably off of the name only, but it's still a decent opening. Constantine has been showing teasers, commercials, and trailers since May 2004. The awareness is high, since they show the trailer with almost all movies (especially the recent horror ones, which were hits). It's definently a different type of movie, more similar to End of Days. End of Days opened to $20 million during Thanksgiving, which is not really the greatest time for this type of movie. Also, Constatine has the pleasure of being released on a 4-day President's Day weekend, with hardly any competition, since Boogeyman and Hide and Seek will both be dead by then. Hitch may affect it, but that's a completely different genre which will be in it's second weekend anyways.

The only restricting thing against Constantine is the R rating, which certainly didn't affect Hide and Seek like most said it would. I don't see this opening lower than $20 million, but that's just me.

Dark Shape, did you see it yet?

Pitch Black opened in 1,832 theaters, at a time when Vin Diesel wasn't even known. It had a strong $6,000+ PTA. Constantine opens in 3,000+ theaters next weekend, so if it had the exact same PTA, it would open to $18.9 million. Now, obviously, that won't be the case considering that this is 5 years later, when moviegoing is bigger, and horror movies get consistantly impressive openings.

By the way, would the new Batman trailer be shown with Constantine? I mean the one with Scarecrow

That's what I heard.

Any recent horror movie is a bad comparison. People went to those movies solely for the jumps and to be really scared.

People will not go to Constantine to be scared. They will go for the action. A good comparison is Van Helsing, with its irregular name and choppy effects. But Van Helsing had three very nice advantages: first movie of May, classic movie monsters, and a actor coming off of a well-liked movie (X2). Reeves is coming off of the last two Matrices, which didn't get that well of a reception.

Movies like Spawn, Hellboy, and LXG (all comic book adaptations) had no trouble topping $20 million. Well, Spawn made $19 million, but in 1997. These movies all seem similar to Constantine in terms of action/comic book/special effects type movies. LXG had the summer, but it was still impressive. Hellboy opened in April with lots of advertising. Spawn... I can't remember.

I dont think most of the audience cared much for the classic monsters for Van Helsing. What brought them in was the hype and constant advertising for 6 months end. I cant see a movie like Constantine that had trailers playing for more than 6 months grossing below 20 million. Say what you will about Keanu Reeves but he sure picks some excellent movies for all the slack he gets from his critics. Nobody seemed to question his potential in Speed.

Argh! I have to do a comparison chart now. Thanks a lot, MG. :razz: :wink:

Title - Opening Weekend - PTA - Theater Count - Total Gross - Year

Blade - $17,073,856 - $7,353 - 2,322 - $70,087,718 - 1998
Blade II - $32,528,016 - $12,016 - 2,707 - $82,348,319 - 2002
Blade: Trinity - $16,061,271 - $5,515 - 2,912 - $52,152,644 - 2004
Hellboy - $23,172,440 - $7,652 - 3,028 - $59,623,958 - 2004
Spawn - $19,738,749 - $7,783 - 2,536 - $54,870,175 - 1997
LXG - $23,075,892 - $7,686 - 3,002 - $66,465,204 - 2003
Pitch Black - $11,577,688 - $6,319 - 1,832 - $39,240,659 - 2000
The Chronicles of Riddick - $24,289,165 - $8,809 - 2,757 - $57,761,012 - 2004
End of Days - $20,523,595 - $7,915 - 2,593 - $66,889,043 - 1999

Wouldnt End of Days be a good comparison? Though its not based on a comic book or anything, im sure most people who go see this movie wont know its based on a comic book.

I forgot about that. Thanks.

I saw some awesome TV spots today, by the way. It looks to be great.

For comparison:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?pa ... vocate.htm

:wink:

Hmm.. that may actually be a good one too. :razz:

Though, that was playing in 2100 theaters, in 1997, when Keanu Reeves wasn't as big as he is now. Also, this one looks more cooler. :razz: It's got a lot more special effects for all the action fans out there. The Devil's Advocate didn't. :wink:

Pitch Black had a 15 million ad campaign, no big stars in it, lots of competition, and under 2,000 screens. Constantine has nearly 3 times the ad campaign, at least one big star who has consistently drawn in audiences (it's not like the Matrix sequels bombed :razz:), and will play in 1,200 more theaters. That and it's been getting pretty good WOM, thus WB giving it so many free screenings (I'm probably going to see it next Tuesday).

Yeah, but its a good comparison because here you can see that it opened pretty good, although Keanu wasn't a big star back in 1997...

How do you guys get these free screening passes?! I want to go.

Hmm, the Devil's Advocate one really did it for me. I will raise my prediction.

Opening: $16.8
Total: $41.0