But, but it's FANtastic

What kind of WOM is kicking in lol? Not many disliked it. We just have never had a 135 million opening weekend before. Anyone not expecting drops the first few weeks is just wrong. Sure we can compare the last Weekend Record Breakers but it's not fair. Look how frontloaded most large movies were this year with the exception of Cars.

I'm sorry, but the position that this will not hit at least the close vicinity of 400M at this point is I think barely tenable at this point, and thinking its going to finish under the 380M is just not realistic. Especially when you factor what the actual grosses are into this question in addition to the %. Its pulling in over 6M a day still. Look at the other second Wednesday's on the Mojo chart: Shrek 2 is the only other film well over 5M on dailes at this point, with SM2 being the only other one over the 5M mark.

Using the Mojo face off as a reference: This is remains ahead in the dailes against both Sith and SM2, both of which did over 100M from this point forward (second Wednesday). That alone would put this over 380M. Quote Competition unquote is no more going to impact this than any other Uber blockbuster, its not like they operated in a vacuum. If anything, the competition for this film is far weaker. If WOM were such a factor, I fail to see how it did not kick in over last weekend. I think folks are too fascinated over it not having as good WOM as the first one. It would shock me if it did, and frankly it does need that type of WOM. It just needs to something considered in the same league as the first, and I think it is clear it is regarded that way. To Paraphrase Mr. Gibbs: It doesnt have to be good, just good enough. I see no realistic reason to think this will continue dropping harder from a % standpoint once it reaches down to more "normal" levels, which won't be until next week at earliest, its coming from numbers that are way too high for anything else to be happening here. Expecting an X3 tailspin is simply not a good comparison - this is broad audience film. X3's totals, as its predecessor are demonstrably fanboy fueled.

In brief - if this thing were going to stall out, it would have done so last week. This is following the general curve one would expect in this day and age for a borad audience uber blockbuster. Its making 400M. The only question is where exactly that curve plays to, but that curve is pointing pretty clearly at 395-430. And at both the high and low end of that curve, Disney has incentive to push it over the line. To expect this to stall out below the Sith/ROTK/POTC/SM2 range, sorry just don't see it happening.

Edited to correct incorrect reference and thanks to mdana for pointing it out.

Excuse me? SM2 had over $5m its third Wed. as did POTC.

You are correct. I was thinking of saying something else initially that involved the Thursday number and misreferenced when I typed this.

I was initially going to say even if this would need to drop more than 20% today to drop under Shrek's number, and that was the only film other film to stay above 5M on its second thursday. This doesn't really fit with what I was trying to say. My apologies.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAA

See i am going to be 100% right about my prediction. POTC 2 won't touch $400 million mark PERIOD.

And then i will laugh at all POTC fans especially BJ and DIB2!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DIE PIARTES DIE!!!!!!!!

You know...I didn't even like POTC2...but ashwani - you're just plain wrong. This baby's sailing over $400M. Probably in the vicinity of $410-425M.

I dont get how you can say Im just throwing out numbers. Im giving its best Comparison. The extra two days Spide 2 had are inconsequential. Do you really not think that Spidey would have opened near what Pirates did on Friday, They are at the same spot. But even if you want to, Spidey made 100 more from this period, if Pirates gets that lucky, that will be 380 million. But spidey was better reviewed and performing better than Pirates, and had less competition. Is it going to do much worst, no, but it will do worst. Its already showing that it is. 372 million is a very reasonable projection from this point.And Im sorry but Pirates wont increase 45% on Friday. It increased 50% last week, and you think 4 openers that all cut into Pirates crowd will only hurt it by 5%, it will be closer to 15%. It will be near another 53% drop this weekend. After that it will start loosing theaters because of almost 1200 theaters are going out this week. Then Miami Vice and John Tucker must die will hurt it, Then of course Talladega Nights the week after. Pirates unfortunately has a lot of competition that will hurt its overall gross.

I honestly don't understand it...

But anyways... just editing projections now...

Thursday- $6.3 mil
Friday- $9.2 mil (45% increase)
Saturday- $12.9 mil (40% increase)
Sunday- $9.7 mil (25% decrease)

Weekend- $31.7 mil

Total after 3rd weekend- $318.3 mil

It's gauranteed $400 mil.

2nd Week- $28.2 mil
3rd Week- $14.5 mil
4th Week- $8.0 mil
5th Week- $5.0 mil
6th Week- $3.0 mil
7th Week- $1.7 mil
8th Week- $1.0 mil
4th Weekend- $16.8 mil
5th Weekend- $9.0 mil
6th Weekend- $5.0 mil
7th Weekend- $3.0 mil
8th Weekend- $1.7 mil
9th Weekend- $1.0 mil

Total after 3rd weekend + only weekends- $354.8 mil
Total- $416.2 mil

I think that's LOW.

Thegun...

From Spidey2's 13th day... it made $111 mil more til the end of it's run.

If we used that number we get $391 mil for Pirates2.

BUT! Pirates2 is making MORE daily than Spidey2.

Pirates2 will make about $1.5 mil more on it's 2nd Thursday than Spidey2 did... if you don't count it's opening weekend Thursday.

Pirates2's 3rd weekend will be about $6 mil MORE than Spidey2's 3rd weekend.

How can you say it will make LESS than $400 mil?!

See, I see a 28.5 weekend with these numbers, only 3.5 more than Spidey, and I think they will be even the 4th at around 15 million each. Unless pirates falls over 50% again, we'll have to see.

With your 53% drop... in your last post... it would make about $29.5 mil...

Hmmm, yea, than it will be higher than 53%. Im seeing an 8.5 Friday, increase to about 11.5 and drop to 8.7. I think a 28.7 weekend sounds about right to me.

I think alot of you are overeacting. Its not alarming at all seeing that we dont know how much it will rise on Friday.

Plus its right inline with my $390 prediction so im happy

Some of these comments are not correct. When you are looking at daily numbers, you really have to look at them in context to the day. Dailies can fluctuate a lot more as a whole, since it is one single box office day during the week. When about half the films in the top 10 area dropped nearly 10% or more, and films like Cars and the Devil Wears Prada are falling 8% (despite both normally being strong weekday performers due to demographic), a 13.9% drop is not the sky falling.

Another thing, something that I remember seeing xiayun (I think) trying to drill into people's heads, dailies, as a singular day, mean just about nothing when it comes to the weekend, because the friday increase and individual fluctuation on the weekend can totally change things. I remember so many times people declaring doom and gloom for any movie (totally unrelated to Pirates 2) during the week, and then being totally surprised on the weekend when their "projections" are wrong.

And wow, there are STILL Pirates 2 haters here trying to justify their hate and pick at Pirates 2 like crazy? I thought you guys got weeded out after this film killed at the box office?

PEACE, Mike.

Honestly I don't think 400 mil is a lock at this point, there's still a chance that it falls barely short.

Spiderman II was more frontloaded and fell harder than what Pirates has so far, but that had incredible WOM surpassing the first that kicked in as the weeks went on. Honestly, I think the WOM for DMC is good, but it's not quite up to Spiderman 2 level. It could fall as hard as that movie, really.

I am going to laugh. Hard. When DMC crosses $400m.

I don't understand how people don't change their perceptions when the numbers are released. This movie should be doing as well as SM2 and Sith. It appeals to kids, families and women much more than those two blockbusters, yet it is not doing as well. Both SM2 and Sith were seen as a improvements over SM and AOTC, this movie is not seen as good or an improvement over POTC.

POTC2 made more on its first Wednesday than POTC did on its opening day. Now on POTC's second Wednesday it made only $1.37m more than POTC's third Wednesday. Are people going to state that POTC 2 will make another $150m, because it is making more on an individual day than POTC?

Sith's 2nd Wednesday Week to Week drop-53.7%
Sith's 3rd weekend multiplier-2.88
SM 2's 2nd Wednesday Week to Week drop-49.8%
SM 2's 3rd weekend multiplier-2.88
HP 3's 2nd Wednesday Week to Week drop-47.3%
SM 2's 3rd weekend multiplier-3.25
Shrek 2's 2nd Wednesday Week to Week drop-32.6%
Shrek 2's 3rd weekend multiplier-3.34

Again all of these were sequels, as liked or better than the previous installment. For POTC 2 to break $400m it will have to better Sith's multiplier which is slightly inflated. Sith opened in May and it had Summer in front of it, which it didn't have its first 3 weeks. POTC2 is the one movie of the group that is not as well liked as the previous installment. It is the one that has had the biggest drops its second week, yet it is going to start having better drops as more movies flood the marketplace? I don't understand the reasoning.

How can you state that? SM2 has been performing around 72% of what Pirates was able to perform on most dates. That percentage has creeped up in the past week. I would argue, Pirates has not performed as well as SM2. SM2 did 12.5% on its 15th day (3rd Wednesday) of release of what it did its opening day. Pirates is doing 11.5% of what it did its opening day on its 13th day (2nd Wednesday). You can factor in the difference between a Friday opening and Wednesday opening, but I don't see how you can state there is that much difference.

It's not doing as well? Are you high?

It was fastest to $100 mil, tied fastest to $200 mil, and will be fastest to $300 mil. It opened higher than any movie ever. For it to get fastest to $300 mil after only TYING fastest to $200 mil it has to have some great legs. And obviously does.

The only one of those movies that is going to beat Pirates2 is Shrek2... and that's not even a gaurantee if better legs kick in.

And something else. If Movie A (Pirates2) is making MORE money than Movie B (SM2) at a certain point in each of their runs (let's say... NOW) then Movie A is performing BETTER than Movie B. No matter what the drops say. We've never had a movie make as much Pirates is making in it's first 3 weeks. How it acts is unpredictable.

Thegun, I've showed you that even with 50% drops for its entire run (pretty damn frontloaded), it'll still make $380 million. And you think every movie released is going to hurt Pirates? Miami Vice, John Tucker Must Die, Talladega Nights... everything is going to hurt it? You act like blockbusters have never survived with competition. Shrek 2 had freakin' Harry Potter in its third weekend and that was a post-Memorial Day weekend and it still avoided a 50% drop. All blockbusters face competition, but you don't see all of them dropping 50% each week. That's just kind of absurd, especially for Pirates, which has a huge family audience.

In addition, don't pretend Spider-Man 2 had less competition because it didn't. When you face three straight $50 million openers straight, that's one hell of a competition.

However, if Movie A has always been making more money then exactly what are you comparing? If A is making $100m the first week and B is making $70m the first week, do we state in week 2 that A is performing better, because B is only making $50m to A's $70m. No, usually we are like B (Prada) is kicking the shit out of A (SR). Capeche?

Yeah POTC 2 is real unpredictable, maybe if you are high.

POTC 2's second Friday increase, posted before Thursday's numbers were released



POTC 2's Thurs. $12.36m
POTC 2's Fri. $18.54m +50.1%

Monday's number





Tuesday's numbers



So, yes if you close your eyes and wish for the best, the numbers are extremely unpredictable. If you keep your eyes open and wish for the best, you sometimes realize it's not going to happen.

Yes, every movie that opens is going to hurt it. My parents have never seen Star Wars/Shrek/Spiderman. They have seen POTC, they go to Prada and Prarie Home Companion. My Aunt and Uncle went to POTC they haven't been to a movie in 25 years. Pirates is impacted by every movie, because it draws potential customers. I don't understand why so many posters don't realize this... The other blockbusters aren't competing with every movie Spiderman is not competing with Prada or Sleepover. Pirates actually is...