Even though Moviefone was a disaster last week (did show Doogal's weakness somewhat), Block Party's appearance is more significant since there isn't any ad about the film on moviefone, and it's not the type of film that is usually shows up early (Madea didn't appear until Wednesday night).

BOM has upped Block Party's estimated theater count to 1,200. No actual counts for the openers yet.

And I agree Aquamarine looks like a turd and will be a derby killer for non-KJers.

It might just be me, but does anyone else feel like this week (last week too) is ridiculously boring? I almost want to yawn when I'm predicting.

I can't say I really have even a passing interest in anything opening. Maybe Block Party when it comes to DVD.

Block Party could possibly take the weekend now with a theater count like that. I don't think 16 Blocks will be as strong as some predict.

16 Blocks 14.0 million
Block Party 10.0 million (its a shame it didnt jump to 1800 theaters,it would of been number 1)
Aquamarine 5.0 million
Ultraviolent 11.0 million

I think Pulse could have done well this weekend if Dimension hadn't moved it to July.

Lee's Early Predictions

1. Block Party - $14.3 (NEW)
2. Madea's Family Reunion - $12.2 (-59%)
3. Eight Below - $10.4 (-34%)
4. The Pink Panther - $8.2 (-26%)
5. 16 Blocks - $7.2 (NEW)
6. Ultraviolet - $6.4 (NEW)
7. Aquamarine - $5.5 (NEW)

Looks good to me.

Hes expecting a 11,916 PTA for Block Party?

Lee is funny. I'm willing to bet anything that Ultraviolet won't be that low. Could say the same thing regarding 16 Blocks, but I'm feeling even more confident with Ultra. Block Party and Aqua look fine.

Why not? The Original Kings of Comedy had a $13,000 PTA, and Dave Chappelle is kinda more popular.

I didnt do a research on that but how many theaters did Kings of Comedy get. $10,000 PTA for a small movie playing in 1200 seems like an extreme amount. As I have mentioned, I dont doubt his popularity, its just the genre itself getting that much in in only that amount of theaters

August 18-20, 2000
1 N The Cell NL $17,515,050 - 2,411 - $7,264 $17,515,050 $57 1
2 N The Original Kings of Comedy Par. $11,053,832 - 847 - $13,050 $11,615,070 $13 1

I think that 1,200 theater count is official. Rogue is a division of Focus, and the theater counts for BBM and Something New have been released. Also, the movie's main page says it's 132 among Widest Opening Independent Releases:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=blockparty.htm

Don't underestimate Chapelle. His tv show's first season is the best selling tv show dvd of all time and the second season broke records for opening day/week and was last year's top tv dvd seller. If Madea's Family Reunion can have a $13,687 PTA in double the theaters, Chapelle certainly could match that.

xiayun, Ultraviolet could easily bomb.

The PTA range is $2000 to $5000. If Keira could only open Domino with a $2000-ish PTA, I don't see why Milla will necessarily open Ultraviolet any higher. The only thing it has going for it is a more marketable/appealing (to the general public, that is) premise and style. But it's still coming across like a poor man's Aeon Flux or Elektra (both of which were poor man's action flicks), which bumps it back (IMO) to the Domino range...

I think the very highest Ultraviolet can do is $10-11M, honestly.

I just can't imagine why this would appeal to any respectable action fan. I mean, it looks like a *ripoff* of Aeon Flux.

Domino is rated R with an overwrought trailer. Ultraviolet's trailer isn't much better, but I don't see a similarity between it and Domino (that would be Running Scared). Aeon Flux is clearly the best comparison, and Ultraviolet's marketing campaign made up the few deficiencies it had else where.

Ultraviolet is PG-13, will be in 300 more hundreds, has a lot more marketing than Domino did (we're comparing Sony to New Line here...), and let's not forget that Aeon Flux had a $4800 PTA in the first weekend of December, a dead weekend.

$4000 PTA minimum.

Aquamarine's HSX price just increased again, and I just don't get it. This is the surest short if I've ever seen one. I was writing my upcoming article, and I couldn't find one justification that its PTA will be bigger than $3,000.

I agree UV will make or break everyone's derby. I think Milla is much more popular, and there is aboslutely nothing out for teens.

xiaun, I'm taking advantage of Aquamarine too.

Based on theatre counts:

16 Blocks - 15.9 (up)
Dave Chappelle ($13m)
Uv - 12.5 (down)
Aquamarine 4.5m (=)

I agree with Getluv that Milla is popular among teens for her work in the RE films. She certainly would seem more popular than Theron although Ultraviolet looks so similar at points to Aeon Flux it could be a sequel; especially the droll voiceover in the trailer and the overhead view of the city. I'm betting it'll be better (wouldn't take much as Flux was awful).

3 openers are on moviefone.

16 Blocks - $13.2m
Ultraviolet - $9.1m