I just checked the facebook page. Interesting that it's not listed on any Japanese movie site for that date, yet, though. Maybe it was posted very recently?

August 1st would be a good release date. It's in the middle of Summer vacation and right before the start of Obon Week. However, it's also sandwiched between Memories of Marnie, Pokemon, and the first CGI Doraemon film in that spot. Late July/Early August is the busiest time at the box-office, so it should still do best there.

Why not? Such an established market.

I understand the Japanese don't particularly like Dreamworks, but it still feels like they are some of the "bigger" Hollywood pictures in terms of worldwide appeal. Just not getting a release at all is quite astounding, revealing and rather pathetic.

Because they've largely disappointed/bombed in the past and likely cost everyone involved with the release money. Dreamworks/Blue Sky/Sony Animation, etc. have zero films in Japan's Top 100 Animated Films.

A lot of Hollywood comedies don't receive theatrical releases for the same reason. Or if they do, it's a very limited release.

Never lose your faith in Dreamworks

Mad 3 beat Brave in 2012

Only because Brave was a huge bomb and became Pixar's lowest-grossing, least-attended film ever. Its performance is still pretty baffling. It grossed less than ¥1 billion to rank outside the Top 60 of 2012.

Excluding Disney/Pixar, other imported-animated films (Dreamworks, Blue Sky, etc.) simply have a limit to their box-office potential (¥2/2.5 billion):

Highest-Grossing Non-Disney/Pixar Imported-Animated Films (2000-)

¥2.50 billion - Despicable Me 2 (2013)
¥2.50 billion - Shrek 2 (2004)
¥2.27 billion - Shrek (2001)
¥2.05 billion - Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (2012)
¥2.00 billion - Kung Fu Panda (2008)
¥1.95 billion - Ice Age (2002)
¥1.88 billion - Shark Tale (2005)
¥1.55 billion - Shrek the Third (2007)
¥1.45 billion - Happy Feet (2007)
¥1.40 billion - Robots (2005)
¥1.20 billion - Despicable Me (2010)
¥1.17 billion - Puss in Boots (2012)
¥1.10 billion - Over the Hedge (2006)
¥1.08 billion - Kung Fu Panda 2 (2011)
¥1.05 billion - The Polar Express (2004)
¥1.02 billion - Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (2009)
¥1.00 billion - Corpse Bride (2005)
¥1.00 billion - Shrek Forever After (2011)

Shrek 2 and Despicable Me 2 are the only two on the list to even make the Yearly Top 20 in their respective years, ranking 18th and 19th.

Everything else like all the Ice Age sequels, Bee Movie, The Croods, Megamind, How to Train Your Dragon, Hotel Transylvania, etc. either flat-out bombed or weren't released.

Weekend Forecast [05/17-18]

01 (01) ¥649 million ($6.4 million), -12%, ¥18.40 billion ($180.7 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 10
02 (02) ¥201 million ($2.0 million), -21%, ¥3.50 billion ($34.3 million), Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 4
03 (03) ¥128 million ($1.2 million), -30%, ¥2.55 billion ($25.1 million), The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) Week 4
04 (04) ¥126 million ($1.2 million), -26%, ¥3.70 billion ($36.1 million), Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 5
05 (--) ¥90 million ($890,000), 0, Ushijima the Loan Shark 2 (Toho) NEW
06 (05) ¥75 million ($740,000), -31%, ¥1.75 billion ($17.2 million), Partners the Movie 3 (Toei) Week 4
07 (06) ¥71 million ($700,000), -34%, ¥270 million ($2.6 million), Wood Job! (Toho) Week 2
08 (--) ¥65 million ($640,000), 0, Mobile Suit Gundam UC: Episode 7 - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) NEW
09 (07) ¥61 million ($600,000), -32%, ¥1.55 billion ($15.0 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toho) Week 5
10 (08) ¥51 million ($500,000), -30%, ¥660 million ($6.4 million), Enchanted Kingdom 3D (Toho-Towa) Week 3

>Frozen exceeded ¥17.6 billion ($173 million) on Thursday to overtake both Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets and Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! to become the #6 Film of All-Time.

Most-Consecutive Weeks at #1 [1998-]

16 - Spirited Away [July 21-22 to Nov. 03-04] (2001)
14 - Armageddon [Dec. 12-13 to Mar. 13-14] (1998-1999)
10 - Frozen [Mar. 15-16 to May 17-18] (2014)
10 - Avatar [Dec. 26-27 to Feb. 27-28] (2009-2010)
9 - Howl's Moving Castle [Nov. 20-21 to Jan. 15-16] (2004-2005)
9 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! [July 19-20 to Sept. 13-14] (2003)
9 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets [Nov. 23-24 to Jan. 18-19] (2002-2003)
9 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone [Dec. 01-02 to Jan. 26-27] (2001-2002)
9 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace [July 10-11 to Sept. 04-05] (1999)
8 - The Eternal Zero [Dec. 21-22 to Feb. 08-09] (2013-2014)
8 - The Wind Rises [July 20-21 to Sept. 07-08] (2013)
7 - Alice in Wonderland [Apr. 17-18 to May 29-30] (2010)
7 - Hero [Sept. 08-09 to Oct. 20-21] (2007)
7 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [Feb. 14-15 to Mar. 27-28] (2004)
7 - Spider-Man [May 11-12 to June 22-23] (2002)
6 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides [May 21-22 to June 25-26] (2011)
6 - Umizaru: The Last Message [Sept. 18-19 to Oct. 23-24] (2010)
6 - 20th Century Boys: The Last Chapter [Aug. 29-30 to Oct. 03-04] (2009)
6 - Ponyo [July 19-20 to Aug. 23-24] (2008)
6 - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [Mar. 03-04 to Apr. 08-09] (2006)
6 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [Nov. 26-27 to Jan. 07-08] (2005-2006)
6 - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith [July 09-10 to Aug. 13-14] (2005)
6 - Monsters, Inc. [Mar. 09-10 to Apr. 13-14] (2002)
6 - The Sixth Sense [Oct. 30-31 to Dec. 04-05] (1999)
6 - The Matrix [Sept. 11-12 to Oct. 16-17] (1999)
6+

Frozen will earn its 10th-consecutive week on top this weekend, and will also be #1 next weekend to make it 11-consecutive weeks. And if it holds off All-Around Appraiser Q on May 31st, then it'll be aiming for 12+ straight weeks atop the box-office. And as I've mentioned before, there is potential for it to remain at #1 until July.

It's early, but Frozen appears slightly up over last Saturday. So if Sunday is at least on par with last week, then it could certainly see a small weekend increase again.

A 10th weekend possibly over ¥700 million ($7 million+), and after already having two major Holiday frames (Spring Break and Golden Week)... granted, it hasn't really lost a single screen or showtime since opening, rather picking up more along the way most weeks, it's still unprecedented for any film to remain so strong after back-to-back Holiday frames at this level.

¥700 million is about the equivalent of a $60/70 million weekend in the US and Frozen hasn't fallen below this since opening. Japan's weekends have a much greater variation and are generally weaker than weekday grosses, but most years only sees 4/5 films have weekends above the ¥700 million mark which has been the norm for $60/70 million openers in the US in recent years.

Corpse,
I see a week of holidays for schools in Japan from 24th May to 1st June(Summer Mid-term). Does that help with weekdays BO?

Where do you see that at? The new school year just began last month.

There are no holidays until July 21st.

What do you mean by this?

I mean that most years at the Japan Box Office only have 4/5 films open over ¥700 million, some years just 2/3 films.

If you compare this with opening weekends in the US in recent years, then it would be about the same as a $60/70 million opener or weekend. Frozen has been at or above this mark since it opened, 10 weeks ago.

It's kinda like, say Godzilla or any other film, opening to $60/70 million in the US and then having 10-consecutive weekends above $60/70 million, too. It hasn't been done before.

$200 million is a lock then. Does it have a shot at $250 million?

Sky's the limit in Japan!

Well, I'm going to post Weekend Estimates shortly and they have Frozen increasing once again. Biggest 10th-weekend by a wide-margin.

The sky I suppose is really the limit here. I mean, these types of legs have happened a few other times, but not still while earning so much over the weekend (10th weekend may have beaten its opening weekend). Only one weekend, its 9th, has been weaker than its opening weekend.

It's going to cruise past ¥20 billion ($200 million) and become the #3 film of all-time, and certainly has a legitimate chance of beating Titanic's ¥26.2 billion gross for the #2 spot. Beating Titanic's admissions (16.83 million) is a lock now, too.

Either way, ¥24/25 billion ($230/240 million) does look reasonable, which will be close to 20 million admissions, so most-attended imported film is assured.

Weekend Estimates [05/17-18]

01 (01) ¥788 million ($7.7 million), +07%, Frozen (Disney) Week 10
02 (02) ¥201 million ($2.0 million), -22%, Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 4
03 (--) ¥151 million ($1.5 million), 0, Mobile Suit Gundam UC: Episode 7 - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) DEBUT
04 (03) ¥125 million ($1.2 million), -31%, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) Week 4
05 (04) ¥119 million ($1.1 million), -30%, Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 5
06 (--) ¥117 million ($1.1 million), 0, Ushijima the Loan Shark 2 (Toho) DEBUT
07 (05) ¥78 million ($770,000), -28%, Partners the Movie 3 (Toei) Week 4
08 (06) ¥73 million ($720,000), -32%, Wood Job! (Toho) Week 2
09 (07) ¥55 million ($540,000), -39%, Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toho) Week 5
10 (08) ¥50 million ($490,000), -31%, Enchanted Kingdom 3D (Toho-Towa) Week 3
-¥48 million ($470,000), -29%, My Little Nightmare (Toho) Week 3

>There's nothing left to describe or to compare Frozen to. Even after Spring Break and Golden Week, it refuses to slow down and continues to post figures as high as when it first opened back in March. It has truly reached unprecedented territory now and we're just along for the ride. Its total should be around ¥18.5 billion ($181/182 million) and 14.6 million admissions after 10 weeks with a lot more to come.

>Ushijima the Loan Shark 2 enjoyed a healthy increase over its predecessor. It'll have no problems outgrossing it by the end of the month, too.

>And that's crazy if the estimate for Mobile Suit Gundam UC is accurate. It's only playing on 35 screens, so that'd be a 2-day psa of ¥4.31 million ($42,400).

It should be renamed to Frozen:Unstoppable in Japan

Will Godzilla top Pacific Rim's gross in Japan?

Frozen's Path to ¥20 billion+ ($200 million+)

¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)
¥788 million ($7.7 million), +07%, ¥18.50 billion ($181.6 million) *Estimate*

Top 10-All Time


May have to change its path to ¥25 billion ($245 million).

That should be easy considering Pacific Rim disappointed as expected since it borrowed so heavily from their own creations like Evangelion.

Although, Godzilla could still see its fair share of backlash as well. I read an article recently that polled fans of Godzilla and they still prefer the old Godzilla (body suit) to the design of the new one. A lot of them commented that he looked "too fat" or "American". I think there were some issues regarding his "roar" as well. Haruo Nakajima, the original Godzilla, is already coming out against the new film. *Shrug*

I thought the new film was leagues better than the 1998 version, though, and I think Japanese audiences will like it overall if they give it a chance.

It is interesting to note also that Toho (which created Godzilla) renamed the "Godzilla" in the 1998 version to simply "Zilla" to differentiate it from the original. Toho was part of the production team for the new film though, and they'll be distributing it in Japan.

Disney reports $7.8m/$179.6m...

Again, their weekend number is fine but they're underestimating its total a little bit like last weekend and the week before.

It was at ¥17.68 billion ($173.5 million) on Thursday, so Friday would have taken it close to or just over ¥17.8 billion (~$174.5 million). So if it added ¥780/790 million ($7.7/7.8 million) over the weekend as estimates and Disney have it, it'll be at ¥18.5/18.6 billion (~$182 million) as of Sunday.

I believe you, I just want to complete the picture with Disney's numbers...

It's run is unbelievable. It could end up above Titanic and come very close to Spirited Away.

We might see final figures of:

Gross: ¥27 billion ($265 million)
Admissions: 21 million
Multiplier: 35.4

Other achievements:
18 Weeks at #1
25+ Weeks in the Top 10.
Biggest 7th to unknown (so far 7th-10th) weekends.

And remember it's only playing in 347 theaters. That's very wide for any film in Japan, but compared to China, Russia, UK, and I'm sure France, Germany, and other markets, it's very small.

"Let It Go" and the soundtrack are also setting their own records. The song (Japanese version) has been #1 for almost 2 months now I believe, and the soundtrack (after just 2 weeks) became the best-selling soundtrack for an animated film of all-time. It'll end up selling well over 1 million copies.