Alice aiming for $120+ million in Japan is kinda amazing. I'm really starting to think that thanks to the 3D boost, the next two Harry Potter films will make $120+ million there too.

I am, too, actually. Well, I'm not sold on over $120m for the first part, but final installments almost always see good increases in Japan. 3D looks to be the Hollywood film savior in the market, so far (82% of Alice's gross is from 3D).



http://www.nipponcinema.com/trailers/ka ... y-trailer/

As for this weekend, I'll post a forecast tomorrow night. Yazima Beauty Salon and Arthur opening day numbers might be available, too.

5/1-2 Weekend Forecast

The openers won't be having much of an impact on the top 10, just like the past few years. Yazima Beauty Salon's first day came in a little lower than expected, and it opened on Thursday, so it's weekend will naturally be deflated a bit. It's being distributed by Shochiku on 154 screens. Zebraman 2 looks to beat the original from several years back, but only it's following are likely to show up for this sequel (reviews are quite poor, too). None of the other openers are likely to debut in the Top 10.

It's being reported that moviegoers this week need to book their ticket in advance due to how crowded it's going to be (due to the top 3 again). Having three films of this size (especially Alice) is rare this time of year. Normally Detective Conan just repeats at No.1 during this week.


Projected Top 10:

1 Alice in Wonderland 3
2 Nodame Cantabile The Movie II 3
3 Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky 3
4 Gintama The Movie 2
5 Clash of the Titans 2
6 Crayon Shin-chan: Super Dimension 3
7 Shutter Island 4
8 Zebraman 2: Zebra City Strikes Back NEW
9 Yazima Beauty Salon The Movie NEW
10 Tida-kankan 2


Alice in Wonderland will likely be between $55-60m after this weekend, probably enough to stay ahead of every film after three weeks except for Howl's Moving Castle ($66m) and Spirited Away ($59m).

I'm going to start posting the Yen total (and weekend) totals for the current films in release. Then once tracking for them become unavailable, I'll add them to the Archive below (films under 250m aren't included) the current films. Mostly for my info, but anyone else who is interested as well. Starting with the totals after this past Sunday.

1b is generally seen as the success mark in the region. Eiren (Motion Picture Producers Association of Japan) will only include films that reached 1b or more in their yearly rankings, too.

Title/Yen Total/(Days in Release/tracking ends)

In Release:

Alice in Wonderland - 3,542,930,499 (9)
Doraemon: Nobita's South Sea Adventure - 3,053,679,923 (51)
Nodame Cantabile The Movie II - 1,357,390,262 (9)
Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky - 1,145,079,198 (9)
Shutter Island - 1,104,762,530 (17)
Pretty Cure DX2 All Stars - 1,095,176,100 (37)
____________________________________________________________
District 9 - 549,043,753 (16)
Crayon Shin-chan - 486,461,062 (9)
My Darling is a Foreigner - 429,585,211 (16)
Solanin - 405,834,962 (23)
Clash of the Titans - 283,769,697 (3)
Gintama The Movie - 199,081,781 (2)
Wolfman - 56,951,222 (3)
Tida-kankan - 49,707,432 (2)


2010 (Dec 09 included) Archive:

May Release Schedule

May 8th
-Trick: The Movie 3
-9
-The Box
-Yuriko no Aroma
-Hotel Chelsea

May 14th
-Green Zone

May 15th
-The Code (Thick as Thieves)
-From Paris With Love
-Ongakubito
-Bokutachi no Play Ball
-Shodo Girls!!
-To Walk Beside You
-The Big Tits Zombie 3D

May 22nd
-Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Episode Red
-Haru Tabi
-Mutant Girls Squad
-Whip It
-Tetsuo The Bullet Man
-Permanent Nobara
-The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day

May 28th
-Prince of Persia

May 29th
-The Hero Show
-The Postman to Heaven
-Railways The Movie
-The Last Zatoichi

Well, Alice sure isn't slowing down (it's growing):



The $12.7m could be a 3 or 4day weekend total (since it mentions "holiday period", and Golden Week Began on the 29th), but here are the biggest third weekends just in case the $12.7m is actually the 2day (if it is, $150m is going down):


Top 5 Third Weekends (2002-2010 + Spirited Away):

5/1-2 Admission Rankings:

1 1 Alice in Wonderland 3
2 2 Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky 3
3 3 Nodame Cantabile The Movie II 3
4 5 Clash of the Titans 2
5 6 Crayon Shin-chan 3
6 4 Gintama The Movie 2
7 7 Shutter Island 4
8 NEW Yazima Beauty Salon The Movie
9 9 District 9 4
10 8 Tida-kankan 2

Little change in the admission rankings this weekend. Gintama falls behind Clash of the Titans and Crayon Shin-chan, while Yazima Beauty Salon ranks 8th making it the only openers to make the Top 10. The Top 3 probably won't budge until at least May 22nd.

Still no numbers for Alice in Wonderland (or the rest of the Top 10), but THR and Variety both mentioned Alice in Wonderland did $12.7m over the "holiday period" and Clash of the Titans did $2.2m. Since Golden Week began on the 29th, I don't know if they're number start from that point making them 4day estimates, or if it's the actual 2day weekend estimates themselves. If they happen to be the 2day numbers, it'd be an increase for Alice while Clash stayed about flat. So I'd expect a huge weekend if that's the case since the other holdovers (except Gintama perhaps) will see increases over last weekend, too. In any case, numbers should be available this evening.

Zebramn 2 is No.12 in admissions, so even if it's tickets were a little higher than Tida-kankan, it's going to miss the Top 10 when numbers are released. It has to be one of the first big disappointments this year, even if it was only expected to debut in the lower half of the Top 10.

Nodame Cantabile The Movie II - 2.3b yen (or $24.5m) after three weeks. Very strong

This number tells me that the $12.7m is most likely the 2day number for Alice in Wonderland now because Nodame Cantabile The Movie II increased it's total by 70% for week three (1.3b to 2.3b). If Alice has a similar week (it's been having better weekly holds), it would have increased from it's two week total of 3.54b ($37.7m) to about 6b (or $65m).

That appears freakishly high, but using the $12.7m figure, Japan accounted for about 57% of Alice in Wonderland's total this past weekend. So if Alice in Wonderland grossed about $44m for the entire week internationally, and taking into account that Golden Week began on that Thursday meaning Japan's percentage of the $22m or so weekday total would be a little lower than the 57% during the weekend, it pretty much adds up about right I think.

If all of this is indeed accurate, Alice in Wonderland's crushed the third week and third weekend record, and for comparison purposes,

After three weeks,

Title/3week total/overall total

Howl's Moving Castle - $66m, $190m
Alice in Wonderland - Possibly mid 60's
Spirited Away - $59m, $234m
HP2 - $54m, $143m
Pirates 3 - $51m, $102m
Avatar - $50m, $164
Rookies - $50m, $95m
Bayside Shakedown 2 - $50m, $164.5m
Ponyo - $49m, $172m

Any official numbers?

Nope, nothing. When the Japanese are on vacation, they are really on vacation. News couldn't be slower. Hopefully soon though since GW ended.

Scratch that.

As of May 5th (end of Golden Week), Alice in Wonderland is understood to be at 7.6b yen or $81m USD, 5 million admissions, and 87% (up 5%) of it's gross from 3D. Disney was expecting this after this coming weekend, but it's far ahead of their expectations now.

It's over $30m ahead of Avatar for comparison. Disney is expecting it to cross 8b Yen on Saturday, and more than Avatar's 15.2b total before it's done (well no shit now).

Not sure what to say about this really, since it's so huge. The closest film is Howl's Moving Castle at $66m after three weeks.

I can't believe this is going to blow by $1 billion so swiftly now.

This is just crazy. it number from high thirties to 81M in just 10 days.

What kind of drop will it have over the weekend. it will probably stabilize after that. still disney expecting 165M+ seem optimistic.

Remember that when numbers are posted by BOM, THR, etc. it's going to be the Top 10 for just May 1-2, and the numbers above are the total as of May 5th.

So I'm actually a little wrong in saying it's so massive. It most certainly is, but the total as of May 2nd was probably in the high 60's, which is at least comparable with Howl's Moving Castle. I was giving Alice 3 extra holiday days above when I said it was the closest film to it after three weeks. Though the Avatar comparison still stands because it was a 5day opener, while Alice was a 2day. So this update for Alice makes for the perfect 19 day comparison between the two ($50m vs $81m est).

That pretty much guarantees a $150+ million finish.

Weekend Analysis



The last 10 days at the Japan Box Office have been incredible (actually, since the Top 3 below broke the weekend record three weeks ago). It's the largest GW to date, even bigger than when SM3 opened to $26m+ over it's 5days, and this when the biggest opener, Yazima Beauty Salon, "only" grossed $2.5m over the holiday period. That's how big the Top 3 have been.


Totals after GW (or as of May 5th):

1 1 Alice in Wonderland - 7,631,957,650b ($82.6M), 4,992,324 admissions, Week 3
2 2 Nodame Cantabile The Movie II - 2,650,049,060b ($28.7m), 2,199,216 admissions, Week 3
3 3 Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky - 2,503,532,800b ($27m), 2,154,623 admissions, Week 3
4 6 Crayon Shin-chan The Movie - 1,054,649,710b ($11.5m), 942,236 admissions, Week 3
NEW Yazima Beauty Salon The Movie - 231,820,400b ($2.5m), 198,365 admissions
NEW Zebraman 2 - 92,757,100 ($1m), 76,665 admissions


Again, just massive for Alice in Wonderland. After last weekend (4/24-25), Disney was expecting Alice to be at 7b ($75m), 4.5m admissions after May 8th, but it's far above their expectations once again. It's the largest 19 day total ever. Disney is now expecting a gross north of 15.2b Yen ($165m+).

But not to be overshadowed too much by Alice in Wonderland are Nodame Cantabile and Detective Conan. Nodame Cantabile II doubled it's 2 week total during the GW period, and is tracking about 35% ahead of the original which finished with 4b ($43m), and Toho is expecting it to eventually cross 6b Yen. And Detective Conan 14 has been running even with last year's record film in the franchise, but has now pulled slightly ahead and is tracking almost 10% ahead. Likely Totals for each of them: $60-65m for Nodame Cantabile/$40m Detective Conan.

Crayon Shin-chan is also doing very well, having nearly matched last year's film already. A total in the high teens is looking good.

Yazima Beauty Salon recovered from it's poor opening day, and earned a healthy $2.5m over the Holday Period. It's playing on 154 screens.

The only disappointment was Zebraman 2. It debuts outside the Top 10, even with it's solid 243 screen count.





Weekend Forecast

Projected Top 10 (5/8-9)

1. Alice in Wonderland
2. Trick: The Movie 3
3. Nodame Cantabile The Movie II
4. Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky
5. Clash of the Titans
6. Crayon Shin-chan
7. Shutter Island
8. Gintama The Movie
9. Yazima Beauty Salon The Movie
10. The Box

Here are the usuals, films that grossed over $150m (minus Princess Mononoke, HP1, and Titanic - and HP2 grossed $143m, close enough) that I used to compare Avatar's run to months ago, and their 4th weekend results. I didn't think comparisons with these films would have to happen so soon, and it's going to happen once again in July with Bayside Shakedown 3. What a year it's turning out to be.

Alice in Wonderland had Thursday and Friday to add to it's $82.6m Wednesday total, so it's already ahead of every film below except for Spirited Away (though technically it is at the same point in release). Disney is expecting Alice to cross 8b Yen on Saturday, which would put it at about $87/88m with Sunday to go. So Alice is locked to have the biggest 4 week total, beating Spirited Away. I think $92m is a good guess at the moment for Alice after 4 weeks.


1 1 Sen to Chihiro no Kamikakushi (Spirited Away) Toho $8,424,566 +6.4% 326 - $25,842 $87,493,934 4
1 1 Hauru no ugoku shiro (Howl's Moving Castle) Toho $9,165,808 -6.8% 450 - $20,368 $81,210,846 4
1 1 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets WB $7,662,108 -20.9% 849 +14 $9,025 $67,578,962 4
1 1 Gake no ue no Ponyo (Ponyo on a Cliff) Toho $7,012,713 -2.7% 481 - $14,579 $66,966,606 4
1 1 Avatar Fox $5,483,555 -19.9% 815 -25 $6,728 $63,779,197 4
1 1 Odoru daisosasen the movie 2: Rainbow Bridge wo fuusa seyo! (Bayside Shakedown 2) Toho $6,366,197 +6.4% 400 -8 $15,915 $60,351,470 4

Look at the Trick series:



Trick 3 is based on season 3,






Trick the Movie 3 Trailer



The original in 2002 grossed just over $10m, but the sequel in 2006 opened to almost $4m and finished with $20m.

Since local films have been seeing steady increase since then, an opening over $4m is likely and a total close to $30m would be in reach.

$5m fourth weekend, $89m total estimate after four weeks. Trick 3 might have gave it a run for 1st for the weekend. Trick 2 opened to $3.9m back in 2006.

Not sure of the drop since it's still not clear if the $12.7m reported last week was the actual 2day weekend or additional days being a Holiday Week. Alice is estimate at having the lowest fourth weekend among the films above, but it's total is greater than all of them, and much greater than the films below Howl's Moving Castle. Spirited Away and Howl's Moving Castle will quickly pass it though, and the others will eventually get there, too, since Alice had Golden Week. It looks headed into the $145-$175m range the lower tier settled in.

Goals for Alice in Wonderland's 5th Week,

1 1 Sen to Chihiro no Kamikakushi (Spirited Away) Toho $7,918,331 -6.0% 326 - $24,289 $108,516,372 5
1 1 Gake no ue no Ponyo (Ponyo on a Cliff) Toho $7,904,102 +12.7% 481 - $16,433 $92,309,426 5
1 1 Odoru daisosasen the movie 2: Rainbow Bridge wo fuusa seyo! (Bayside Shakedown 2) $7,383,069 +16.0% 408 +8 $18,096 $87,751,257 5
1 1 Avatar Fox $5,572,343 +1.6% 761 -54 $7,322 $75,272,427 5

No fifth weekend date for Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets or Howl's Moving Castle, unfortunately.

But as you can see, they're all going to catch up to Alice in Wonderland quickly. Spirited Away and Howl's Moving Castle will both be ahead of it before next weekend begins.

5/8-9, 2010



1 1 Alice in Wonderland Disney 4
2 NEW Trick the Movie 3 Toho
3 2 Nodame Cantable The Movie II Toho 4
4 3 Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky Toho 4
5 4 Clash of the Titans WB 3
6 6 Gintama The Movie WB 3
7 5 Crayon Shin-chan Toho 4
8 7 Shutter Island PPI 5
9 8 Yazima Beauty Salon the Movie Shochiku 2
10 NEW The Box


Trick the Movie 3 - Y366,408,980 ($3,928,210), 270,705 admissions
-Toho expecting it to reach Y2b ($22m).

Nodame Cantabile the Movie II - Y2,900,000+ ($31,000,000-$33,000,000) total.

The Box - Y100,000,000 est ($1,100,000 est)

This Weeks Openers




-Green Zone, The Code (Thick as Thieves), From Paris With Love, Ongakubito, Bokutachi no Play Ball, Shodo Girls!!, To Walk Beside You, The Big Tits Zombie 3D

oooh... The Big Tits Zombie 3D

3D Sex Films have joined the smaller release Softcore Porn genre that dates back to the 60's, and is in the midst of a revival of sorts this year with new releases.

Jason Gray (Tokyo correspondent for Screendaily and others) had an article about the sub-genre a few months ago.



http://jasongray.blogspot.com/

Don't expect to see any significant numbers though. They are only released in a handful of theaters.

According to HR update, Japan made 5.7m for the weekend and is currently at 91.7m. It will reach 100m there by next weekend.

So it continues to gross more than avatar(probably for the last time).