Weekend Forecast [04/05-06]



01 (01) ¥790 million ($7.7 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 4
02 (02) ¥210 million ($2.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 5
03 (03) ¥145 million ($1.4 million), Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) Week 2
04 (05) ¥105 million ($1.0 million), Team Batista: Final Kerberos's Portrait (Toho) Week 2
05 (04) ¥100 million ($980,000), The Snow White Murder Case (Shochiku) Week 2
06 (06) ¥75 million ($730,000), The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) Week 3
07 (07) ¥60 million ($580,000), Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 4
08 (--) ¥50 million ($340,000), One Third (Kadokawa) NEW
09 (08) ¥45 million ($430,000), God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) Week 3
10 (--) ¥40 million ($380,000), Cherry Blossoms Bloom (Toei) NEW

Dead weekend as usual to start April off.

Frozen exceeded ¥6 billion ($60 million) and 5 million admissions on Wednesday, its 20th-day in release, and outpaced last week's weekdays this past week, too, thanks to Tuesday being the first (a discount day).

It should be at ~¥6.8 billion ($66 million) or so heading into the weekend, so expect a massive four week total of around ¥7.5 billion ($73 million) as Spring Break comes to an end.

At this point, even if it collapses starting on Monday, missing ¥10 billion (~$100 million) is nearly impossible. ¥12 billion (~$120 million) is the goal, and anything above exactly ¥11 billion will make it the highest-grossing non-Miyazaki animated film of all-time, exceeding all of Pixar's efforts.

¥10 Billion Club
01 :: ¥30.40 - Spirited Away (2001)
02 :: ¥26.20 - Titanic (1997)
03 :: ¥22.00 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
04 :: ¥20.30 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
05 :: ¥19.30 - Princess Mononoke (1997)
06 :: ¥17.35 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
07 :: ¥17.30 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
08 :: ¥15.60 - Avatar (2009)
09 :: ¥15.50 - Ponyo (2008)
10 :: ¥13.70 - The Last Samurai (2003)
11 :: ¥13.50 - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)
11 :: ¥13.50 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
13 :: ¥13.40 - Armageddon (1998)
14 :: ¥12.85 - Jurassic Park (1993)
15 :: ¥12.70 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)
16 :: ¥12.02 - The Wind Rises (2013)
17 :: ¥11.80 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
18 :: ¥11.00 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
18 :: ¥11.00 - Finding Nemo (2003)
18 :: ¥11.00 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
18 :: ¥11.00 - Antarctic Story (1983)
22 :: ¥10.90 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
23 :: ¥10.80 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
24 :: ¥10.65 - Independence Day (1996)
25 :: ¥10.32 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
26 :: ¥10.10 - Bayside Shakedown (1998)
27 :: ¥10.02 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)

$100 Million Club
01 :: $244.0 - Spirited Away (2001)
02 :: $212.0 - Titanic (1997)
03 :: $207.0 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
04 :: $188.7 - Avatar (2009)
05 :: $165.5 - Princess Mononoke (1997)
06 :: $164.5 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
07 :: $163.7 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
08 :: $156.0 - Ponyo (2008)
09 :: $147.8 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
10 :: $142.8 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
11 :: $130.7 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
12 :: $126.7 - The Last Samurai (2003)
13 :: $125.3 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)
14 :: $125.1 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
15 :: $123.5 - The Wind Rises (2013)
16 :: $117.6 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)
17 :: $114.9 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
18 :: $111.9 - Arrietty (2010)
19 :: $102.4 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
20 :: $102.4 - Finding Nemo (2003)
21 :: $100.2 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
22 :: $100.0 - Armageddon (1998)

Most-Attended Films Club
01 :: 23.50 million - Spirited Away (2001)
02 :: 19.50 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)
03 :: 16.83 million - Titanic (1997)
04 :: 16.20 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
05 :: 15.50 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
06 :: 14.20 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)
07 :: 14.00 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
08 :: 13.00 million - Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958)
09 :: 12.87 million - Ponyo (2008)
10 :: 12.60 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
11 :: 12.55 million - Godzilla Vs. King Kong (1962)
12 :: 12.10 million - The Last Samurai (2003)
13 :: 11.00 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
14 :: 10.69 million - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)
15 :: 10.10 million - Avatar (2009)
16 :: 9.72 million - The Wind Rises (2013)
17 :: 9.61 million - Godzilla (1954)
18 :: 9.00 million - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
19 :: 8.90 million - Armageddon (1998)
20 :: 8.80 million - The Sinking of Japan (1973)
21 :: 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003)
22 :: 8.55 million - Jurassic Park (1993)
23 :: 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
24 :: 8.34 million - The Return of Godzilla (1955)
25 :: 8.30 million - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)


Frozen should make a competitive run at the Top 15 for all three of these clubs. Although... if it doesn't slow down too much after this weekend, then maybe Top 10... which would be...

Do you see Maleficent big there?

You don't see Grudge Match cracking the Top Ten?

Nowhere near Alice in Wonderland (¥11.8 billion) big, but it should easy out-gross Oz: The Great and Powerful (¥1.78 billion).

I'm thinking maybe ¥3-4 billion ($30/40 million).

The Japanese really like Angelina Jolie. Japan was the best market for The Tourist, Salt, Changeling, Wanted, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, and both Tomb Raider films.

It's only being released in 21 theaters. Quite bizarre for a Warner Bros. release, but given how poorly it performed everywhere else, perhaps it was the right decision.

ok

Ok, so... Frozen is up over last Saturday's admissions by about 3%, and when you factor in the tax hike (increasing ticket prices by ~7%) that went into effect on April 1st, yet another weekend increase (making it three-consecutive) is likely. It just keeps growing bigger and bigger every week.

It may honestly beat Avatar (admissions is more than 50% likely now I believe), and become Hollywood's biggest film since Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 12 years ago.

Damn. In that case it should pretty easily hit #6 on the all time WW chart and #10 on the international chart (also passing Ice Age 4 as the highest-ranked animated film).

Frozen's Path to ¥15 billion ($150 million)

¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥910 million ($8.9 million), +03%, ¥7.65 billion ($74.8 million) *Projection based on Sat. Estimates*

Top 10-All Time

Frozen's run is insane. I guess no other movie will beat it this year.

The Hobbit's performance was downright embarrassing in Japan...

The only possible film to do it would be Memories of Marnie (coincidentally, one of the main characters is also name 'Anna'), but considering Frozen is going to exceed ¥10 billion ($100 million) with no trouble and may end up closer to ¥15 billion ($150 million), it's incredibly unlikely. Marnie would need to increase some 40, 45% or more over Hiromasa Yonebayashi's debut film - Arrietty.

To Hiromasa's credit, though, Arrietty is Studio Ghibli's highest-grossing non-Hayao Miyazaki film, as well as the highest-grossing film of all-time by a first time director. And he has been chosen as Miyazaki's successor, but even still, ¥10 billion is a really difficult mark to reach let alone up to ¥15 billion.

In fact, I think Frozen could end up the top-grossing film for the current decade (2010-2019). Literally the only films that it'll be trailing behind after four weeks will be Spirited Away, Howl's Moving Castle, the first two Harry Potter films, and maybe Ponyo (which it has been tracking closely with). And they're all in the Top 10 films of all-time.

Wow. That insane for Frozen.

Corpse you said something about spring break ending soon. Did it already end this weekend?

Yeah, Monday is when the 2014-2015 School Year begins and students go back after a two-week break. Most countries have a school year of Fall-to-Fall I believe, but Japan's school year is Spring-to-Spring.

Sunday wasn't as strong as last week (evening/night were slower due to school tomorrow morning), so Frozen may not have increased again this weekend. I'll have estimates up shortly, but I have to figure out an accurate way of including the tax hike that went into effect earlier in the week.

It's the first time movie ticket prices have increased in over 20 years, so estimates will probably be inaccurate until we see how the hike effects everything.

Weekend Estimates [04/05-06]

01 (01) ¥869 million ($8.5 million), -02%, Frozen (Disney) Week 4
02 (02) ¥175 million ($1.7 million), -37%, Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 5
03 (03) ¥169 million ($1.6 million), -36%, Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) Week 2
04 (04) ¥119 million ($1.1 million), -27%, The Snow White Murder Case (Shochiku) Week 2
05 (05) ¥101 million ($985,000), -35%, Team Batista: Kerberos's Final Portrait (Toho) Week 2
06 (06) ¥60 million ($580,000), -43%, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) Week 3
07 (--) ¥58 million ($560,000), 0, One Third (Kadokawa) NEW
08 (07) ¥51 million ($490,000), -44%, Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 4
09 (08) ¥47 million ($450,000), -33%, God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) Week 3
10 (--) ¥35 million ($330,000), 0, Cherry Blossoms Bloom (Toei) NEW
11 (09) ¥26 million ($240,000), -35%, Silver Spoon (Toho) Week 5
12 (11) ¥18 million ($170,000), -50%, Saving Mr. Banks (Disney) Week 3
13 (10) ¥17 million ($160,000), -52%, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) Week 6

Weekend estimates are given with percentage changes in admissions, so having to adjust to ticket price changes has never been a problem since they've been the same since the early 1990's. To account for the tax hike, I basically just adjusted the ticket price by +4/8% depending on which demographics each film has been attracting the most.

On avg., ticket prices rose ~7.5% after Tuesday's consumption tax increase (5% to 8%), but increasing everything by that figure probably isn't going to be accurate given the different demographics for each film. And in the end, that ~7.5% increase should drop a couple points since discounts should become more popular.

that's a crazy drop

Biggest Fourth Weekends/Four Week Totals (2001-)

Fourth Weekend (% change) / 4-Week Total -> Final Total - Film
¥972.2 million (-19%) / ¥8.43 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥953.2 million (-06%) / ¥8.45 billion -> ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥940.0 million (+06%) / ¥10.75 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥922.9 million (-21%) / ¥8.13 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥869.0 million (-02%) / ¥7.70 billion -> ¥??.?? billion - Frozen (2014) *est*
¥765.7 million (+07%) / ¥7.20 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥755.2 million (-03%) / ¥7.21 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥733.5 million (-27%) / ¥7.11 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥683.5 million (-27%) / ¥7.45 billion -> ¥10.90 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥657.9 million (-05%) / ¥6.23 billion -> ¥8.87 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥618.6 million (-23%) / ¥6.02 billion -> ¥8.55 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥617.1 million (+15%) / ¥5.41 billion -> ¥10.80 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥604.4 million (-22%) / ¥7.55 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥565.4 million (-12%) / ¥5.08 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥556.0 million (-34%) / ¥5.91 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥543.9 million (-07%) / ¥5.77 billion -> ¥8.04 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥542.8 million (+07%) / ¥4.47 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥524.4 million (-26%) / ¥6.15 billion -> ¥10.32 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥521.6 million (-52%) / ¥8.38 billion -> ¥11.80 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥520.8 million (-01%) / ¥3.83 billion -> ¥8.50 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥518.5 million (-01%) / ¥5.22 billion -> ¥10.02 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥510.3 million (-07%) / ¥5.60 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥510.1 million (-20%) / ¥5.93 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥503.4 million (-09%) / ¥4.19 billion -> ¥9.37 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥501.2 million (-27%) / ¥6.26 billion -> ¥9.05 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥500 million+

Since it's unlikely to change so much from estimates to change its ranking, Frozen achieves the 5th-Biggest Fourth Weekend and 6th-Highest 4-Week Total since at least 2001.

It's worth noting that most of these films have yet to reach their major holiday frame boost as of their fourth week in release.

>The only ones either out of or soon leaving their holiday frames includes: Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, Umizaru: The Last Message, Crying Out Love in the Center of the World, and finally Frozen.

>And Rookies, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, and The Da Vinci Code were released off-season (all in May interesting enough) without any major holiday support, so they were naturally more-frontloaded than the rest.

Weekend Ranking [04/05-06]



01 (01) Frozen (Disney) Week 4
02 (02) Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 5
03 (03) Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) Week 2
04 (04) The Snow White Murder Case (Shochiku) Week 2
05 (05) Team Batista: Kerberos's Final Portrait (Toho) Week 2
06 (07) Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 4
07 (06) The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) Week 3
08 (--) One Third (Kadokawa) DEBUT
09 ((08) God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) Week 3
10 (--) Cherry Blossoms Bloom (Toei) DEBUT

>Frozen win its 4th-consecutive week at the box-office, dropping only 7% to earn ¥850,911,950 ($8.3 million) and 642,489 admissions. This made its avg. ticket price for the weekend to ¥1,324, up ¥48 or 3.8% over last weekend after the consumption tax increase went into effect. The increase is about half of what tickets were raised by, so as expected I don't think it'll have a huge impact on the overall box office. Although 3-4%, if that becomes the norm from here on out, is still a big increase after 22 years of no change whatsoever.

After 24 days in release, Frozen has reached an incredible ¥7.71 billion ($75.2 million) and 6.35 million admissions, climbing into the Top 60 (59th) Highest-Grossing Films of All-Time already.

This bests also Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End at reaching 6 million admissions (24 days vs 27 days) and becomes Disney's fastest film to achieve the milestone. Frozen also earns the 5th-biggest fourth-weekend and 6th-highest four-week total since 2001, and the top spots on both lists for an imported-film after the first two Harry Potter films.

>Doraemon enjoyed a healthy Spring Break. After 30 days in release, the 34th installments in the franchise has grossed ¥3.16 billion ($30.9 million) and 2.92 million admissions. Doraemon really slows down post-Spring Break, but it's still tracking ahead of every film in the franchise except for last year's (the highest-grossing film in the franchise), so it'll have no problem exceeding ¥3.5 billion ($35 million) to become the 2nd-highest grossing film in the series.

>One Third was the weekend's top opener, but only manages 8th-place. Playing on 211 screens, it earned ¥63,453,200 ($616,000) and 44,491 admissions. Its avg. ticket price was a very, very high ¥1,426, so it was clearly affected by the ticket price increase of ¥100. The other opener on the other hand, wasn't in the slightest.

>Cherry Blossoms Bloom barely manages to open in the Top 10, grossing ¥26,013,700 ($253,000) and 21,759 admissions on 148 screens. Now its avg. ticket price was only ¥1,195, well below the national average and clearly not affected by the tax hike very much. Its audience would be primarily older people, so it just looks like the tax increase will only affect certain films.

Top Grossing Films - 2014
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥8.61 billion ($83.7 million) / 7.02 million [107] - The Eternal Zero (Toho)
¥7.71 billion ($75.2 million) / 6.35 million [24] - Frozen (Disney)
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.18 billion ($40.4 million) / 3.52 million [E] - Lupin III Vs. Detective Conan (Toho)
¥3.16 billion ($30.9 million) / 2.92 million [30] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho)
¥3.14 billion ($30.3 million) / 2.02 million [E] - Gravity (Warner Bros.)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.38 billion ($23.2 million) / 1.99 million [E] - The Tale of Princess Kaguya (Toho)
¥2.13 billion ($20.6 million) / 1.65 million [51] - The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho)
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.76 billion ($17.0 million) / 1.45 million [E] - The Liar and His Lover (Toho)
¥1.74 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.35 million [E] - Trick: The Last Stage (Toho)
¥1.45 billion ($14.3 million) / 1.22 million [E] - I Want to Hold You (Toho)
¥1.36 billion ($13.2 million) / 1.05 million [38] - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.)
¥1.14 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Little House (Shochiku)
¥1.13 billion ($10.9 million) / 0.94 million [E] - Planes (Disney)
¥1.02 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.85 million [E] - Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Gaim & Wizard (Toei)
¥1 billion ↑

[E] = End of Tracking

Top Grossing Films - 2013

No Grudge Match news I guess?

The Back to the Future movies were massive in Japan. #3 of all time.

A.I. also only really saved face box office wise due to Japan.

#18 for Grudge Match.
But not an awful PTA. Perhaps a small cinema bump next weekend.

Theater/Screen increases are quite rare in Japan, so I wouldn't count on it. Once any film opens, that's just about as wide as it's going to go.

However, films maintain their theater counts much longer than most other countries I believe. It's pretty common for a film to still be playing in as many theaters as it opened 4, 5, or even 6 or more weeks in release. Screens/Showtimes are what get cut on a weekly basis.