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The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

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Chippy

KJ's Leading Pundit

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

Magnus wrote:

Eventine wrote:

If it makes $26 million on Friday, this thing is beating Titanic.

I don't know why you would make that claim.

26m Friday would give it a 85m-87m 2nd weekend, or about a 45.5% drop. While that's a fantastic hold, that still wouldn't indicate a 3.79 multiplier it would need to beat Titanic. 500m+ would be guranteed, but not 600m+.

Now...if it gets like a 95m+ OW (or a sub-40% drop)...that ship is going down!!!!

It got a $158 mil OW...

:whistle:

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Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:02 pm

Eventine

Too Brilliant for Introductions

Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

Magnus wrote:

Eventine wrote:

If it makes $26 million on Friday, this thing is beating Titanic.

I don't know why you would make that claim.

26m Friday would give it a 85m-87m 2nd weekend, or about a 45.5% drop. While that's a fantastic hold, that still wouldn't indicate a 3.79 multiplier it would need to beat Titanic. 500m+ would be guranteed, but not 600m+.

Now...if it gets like a 95m+ OW (or a sub-40% drop)...that ship is going down!!!!

2nd Weekend you mean.

And Magnus, projections go beyond multipliers.

$67,165,092	0.0%	0.0%	$15,384	4366	0	$67,165,092
$47,620,050	-29.1%	0.0%	$10,907	4366	0	$114,785,142
$43,572,346	-8.5%	0.0%	$9,980	4366	0	$158,357,488	$158,357,488	0.0%	$36,271
$24,618,375	-43.5%	0.0%	$5,639	4366	0	$182,975,864
$21,417,987	-13.0%	0.0%	$4,906	4366	0	$204,393,850
$19,490,368	-9.0%	0.0%	$4,464	4366	0	$223,884,218
$17,892,158	-8.2%	0.0%	$4,098	4366	0	$241,776,376	$241,776,376	0.0%	$55,377
$26,838,237	50.0%	-60.0%	$6,147	4366	0	$268,614,612
$34,997,060	30.4%	-26.5%	$8,016	4366	0	$303,611,673
$26,107,807	-25.4%	-40.1%	$5,980	4366	0	$329,719,480	$87,943,104	-44.5%	$20,143
$11,565,759	-55.7%	-53.0%	$2,649	4366	0	$341,285,238
$10,721,458	-7.3%	-49.9%	$2,456	4366	0	$352,006,697
$9,638,591	-10.1%	-50.5%	$2,208	4366	0	$361,645,288
$9,397,626	-2.5%	-47.5%	$2,152	4366	0	$371,042,914	$129,266,538	-46.5%	$29,608
$14,622,706	55.6%	-45.5%	$3,642	4015	-351	$385,665,620
$19,959,994	36.5%	-43.0%	$4,971	4015	0	$405,625,614
$14,490,956	-27.4%	-44.5%	$3,609	4015	0	$420,116,570	$49,073,656	-44.2%	$12,223
$5,767,400	-60.2%	-50.1%	$1,436	4015	0	$425,883,970
$5,830,842	1.1%	-45.6%	$1,452	4015	0	$431,714,812
$5,632,593	-3.4%	-41.6%	$1,403	4015	0	$437,347,405
$5,621,328	-0.2%	-40.2%	$1,400	4015	0	$442,968,733	$71,925,819	-44.4%	$17,914
$8,847,970	57.4%	-39.5%	$2,327	3802	-213	$451,816,703
$12,334,070	39.4%	-38.2%	$3,244	3802	0	$464,150,773
$9,176,548	-25.6%	-36.7%	$2,414	3802	0	$473,327,322	$30,358,589	-38.1%	$7,985
$3,909,210	-57.4%	-32.2%	$1,028	3802	0	$477,236,531
$3,866,208	-1.1%	-33.7%	$1,017	3802	0	$481,102,740
$3,765,687	-2.6%	-33.1%	$990	3802	0	$484,868,427
$3,562,340	-5.4%	-36.6%	$937	3802	0	$488,430,767	$45,462,034	-36.8%	$11,957
$5,386,258	51.2%	-39.1%	$1,610	3346	-456	$493,817,024
$7,276,834	35.1%	-41.0%	$2,175	3346	0	$501,093,859
$5,421,242	-25.5%	-40.9%	$1,620	3346	0	$506,515,100	$18,084,334	-40.4%	$5,405
$2,472,086	-54.4%	-36.8%	$739	3346	0	$508,987,186
$2,195,212	-11.2%	-43.2%	$656	3346	0	$511,182,399
$2,173,260	-1.0%	-42.3%	$650	3346	0	$513,355,659
$2,247,151	3.4%	-36.9%	$672	3346	0	$515,602,810	$27,172,044	-40.2%	$8,121
$3,447,130	53.4%	-36.0%	$1,280	2694	-652	$519,049,940
$4,667,414	35.4%	-35.9%	$1,733	2694	0	$523,717,354
$3,621,913	-22.4%	-33.2%	$1,344	2694	0	$527,339,268	$11,736,457	-35.1%	$4,357
$1,568,288	-56.7%	-36.6%	$582	2694	0	$528,907,556
$1,452,235	-7.4%	-33.8%	$539	2694	0	$530,359,791
$1,436,261	-1.1%	-33.9%	$533	2694	0	$531,796,052
$1,276,836	-11.1%	-43.2%	$474	2694	0	$533,072,887	$17,470,077	-35.7%	$6,485
$2,012,293	57.6%	-41.6%	$881	2283	-411	$535,085,180
$2,929,898	45.6%	-37.2%	$1,283	2283	0	$538,015,079
$2,009,910	-31.4%	-44.5%	$880	2283	0	$540,024,989	$6,952,102	-40.8%	$3,045
$717,538	-64.3%	-54.2%	$314	2283	0	$540,742,527
$762,025	6.2%	-47.5%	$334	2283	0	$541,504,552
$710,970	-6.7%	-50.5%	$311	2283	0	$542,215,522
$776,379	9.2%	-39.2%	$340	2283	0	$542,991,901	$9,919,014	-43.2%	$4,345
$1,354,781	74.5%	-32.7%	$735	1842	-441	$544,346,682
$2,103,975	55.3%	-28.2%	$1,142	1842	0	$546,450,657
$1,590,605	-24.4%	-20.9%	$864	1842	0	$548,041,262	$5,049,361	-27.4%	$2,741
$515,356	-67.6%	-28.2%	$280	1842	0	$548,556,618
$502,988	-2.4%	-34.0%	$273	1842	0	$549,059,606
$470,293	-6.5%	-33.9%	$255	1842	0	$549,529,899
$465,120	-1.1%	-40.1%	$253	1842	0	$549,995,019	$7,003,118	-29.4%	$3,802
$1,070,706	130.2%	-21.0%	$738	1450	-392	$551,065,725
$1,818,060	69.8%	-13.6%	$1,254	1450	0	$552,883,785
$1,790,789	-1.5%	12.6%	$1,235	1450	0	$554,674,574	$4,679,555	-7.3%	$3,227
$1,352,045	-24.5%	162.4%	$932	1450	0	$556,026,619
$289,338	-78.6%	-42.5%	$200	1450	0	$556,315,957
$247,673	-14.4%	-47.3%	$171	1450	0	$556,563,630
$241,977	-2.3%	-48.0%	$167	1450	0	$556,805,607	$6,810,588	-2.7%	$4,697

That's $556.8 million after 63 days, and it's definitely heading for the $580 million territory. Two things are most likely to happen: it'll drop less than that from its 3rd weekend and the weekends after, because it friggin' dropped 44% on its 2nd weekend and of course, WB will push it HARD.

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Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:11 pm

thompsoncory

Rachel McAdams Fan

Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:13 am
Posts: 14614
Location: LA / NYC

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

For the record, this is still selling out all day at the theater I frequent (Union Square 14 in Manhattan).

Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:13 pm

mdana

Veteran

Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

Eventine wrote:

Magnus wrote:

Eventine wrote:

If it makes $26 million on Friday, this thing is beating Titanic.

I don't know why you would make that claim.

26m Friday would give it a 85m-87m 2nd weekend, or about a 45.5% drop. While that's a fantastic hold, that still wouldn't indicate a 3.79 multiplier it would need to beat Titanic. 500m+ would be guranteed, but not 600m+.

Now...if it gets like a 95m+ OW (or a sub-40% drop)...that ship is going down!!!!

2nd Weekend you mean.

And Magnus, projections go beyond multipliers.

$67,165,092	0.0%	0.0%	$15,384	4366	0	$67,165,092
$47,620,050	-29.1%	0.0%	$10,907	4366	0	$114,785,142
$43,572,346	-8.5%	0.0%	$9,980	4366	0	$158,357,488	$158,357,488	0.0%	$36,271
$24,618,375	-43.5%	0.0%	$5,639	4366	0	$182,975,864
$21,417,987	-13.0%	0.0%	$4,906	4366	0	$204,393,850
$19,490,368	-9.0%	0.0%	$4,464	4366	0	$223,884,218
$17,892,158	-8.2%	0.0%	$4,098	4366	0	$241,776,376	$241,776,376	0.0%	$55,377
$26,838,237	50.0%	-60.0%	$6,147	4366	0	$268,614,612
$34,997,060	30.4%	-26.5%	$8,016	4366	0	$303,611,673
$26,107,807	-25.4%	-40.1%	$5,980	4366	0	$329,719,480	$87,943,104	-44.5%	$20,143
$11,565,759	-55.7%	-53.0%	$2,649	4366	0	$341,285,238
$10,721,458	-7.3%	-49.9%	$2,456	4366	0	$352,006,697
$9,638,591	-10.1%	-50.5%	$2,208	4366	0	$361,645,288
$9,397,626	-2.5%	-47.5%	$2,152	4366	0	$371,042,914	$129,266,538	-46.5%	$29,608
$14,622,706	55.6%	-45.5%	$3,642	4015	-351	$385,665,620
$19,959,994	36.5%	-43.0%	$4,971	4015	0	$405,625,614
$14,490,956	-27.4%	-44.5%	$3,609	4015	0	$420,116,570	$49,073,656	-44.2%	$12,223
$5,767,400	-60.2%	-50.1%	$1,436	4015	0	$425,883,970
$5,830,842	1.1%	-45.6%	$1,452	4015	0	$431,714,812
$5,632,593	-3.4%	-41.6%	$1,403	4015	0	$437,347,405
$5,621,328	-0.2%	-40.2%	$1,400	4015	0	$442,968,733	$71,925,819	-44.4%	$17,914
$8,847,970	57.4%	-39.5%	$2,327	3802	-213	$451,816,703
$12,334,070	39.4%	-38.2%	$3,244	3802	0	$464,150,773
$9,176,548	-25.6%	-36.7%	$2,414	3802	0	$473,327,322	$30,358,589	-38.1%	$7,985
$3,909,210	-57.4%	-32.2%	$1,028	3802	0	$477,236,531
$3,866,208	-1.1%	-33.7%	$1,017	3802	0	$481,102,740
$3,765,687	-2.6%	-33.1%	$990	3802	0	$484,868,427
$3,562,340	-5.4%	-36.6%	$937	3802	0	$488,430,767	$45,462,034	-36.8%	$11,957
$5,386,258	51.2%	-39.1%	$1,610	3346	-456	$493,817,024
$7,276,834	35.1%	-41.0%	$2,175	3346	0	$501,093,859
$5,421,242	-25.5%	-40.9%	$1,620	3346	0	$506,515,100	$18,084,334	-40.4%	$5,405
$2,472,086	-54.4%	-36.8%	$739	3346	0	$508,987,186
$2,195,212	-11.2%	-43.2%	$656	3346	0	$511,182,399
$2,173,260	-1.0%	-42.3%	$650	3346	0	$513,355,659
$2,247,151	3.4%	-36.9%	$672	3346	0	$515,602,810	$27,172,044	-40.2%	$8,121
$3,447,130	53.4%	-36.0%	$1,280	2694	-652	$519,049,940
$4,667,414	35.4%	-35.9%	$1,733	2694	0	$523,717,354
$3,621,913	-22.4%	-33.2%	$1,344	2694	0	$527,339,268	$11,736,457	-35.1%	$4,357
$1,568,288	-56.7%	-36.6%	$582	2694	0	$528,907,556
$1,452,235	-7.4%	-33.8%	$539	2694	0	$530,359,791
$1,436,261	-1.1%	-33.9%	$533	2694	0	$531,796,052
$1,276,836	-11.1%	-43.2%	$474	2694	0	$533,072,887	$17,470,077	-35.7%	$6,485
$2,012,293	57.6%	-41.6%	$881	2283	-411	$535,085,180
$2,929,898	45.6%	-37.2%	$1,283	2283	0	$538,015,079
$2,009,910	-31.4%	-44.5%	$880	2283	0	$540,024,989	$6,952,102	-40.8%	$3,045
$717,538	-64.3%	-54.2%	$314	2283	0	$540,742,527
$762,025	6.2%	-47.5%	$334	2283	0	$541,504,552
$710,970	-6.7%	-50.5%	$311	2283	0	$542,215,522
$776,379	9.2%	-39.2%	$340	2283	0	$542,991,901	$9,919,014	-43.2%	$4,345
$1,354,781	74.5%	-32.7%	$735	1842	-441	$544,346,682
$2,103,975	55.3%	-28.2%	$1,142	1842	0	$546,450,657
$1,590,605	-24.4%	-20.9%	$864	1842	0	$548,041,262	$5,049,361	-27.4%	$2,741
$515,356	-67.6%	-28.2%	$280	1842	0	$548,556,618
$502,988	-2.4%	-34.0%	$273	1842	0	$549,059,606
$470,293	-6.5%	-33.9%	$255	1842	0	$549,529,899
$465,120	-1.1%	-40.1%	$253	1842	0	$549,995,019	$7,003,118	-29.4%	$3,802
$1,070,706	130.2%	-21.0%	$738	1450	-392	$551,065,725
$1,818,060	69.8%	-13.6%	$1,254	1450	0	$552,883,785
$1,790,789	-1.5%	12.6%	$1,235	1450	0	$554,674,574	$4,679,555	-7.3%	$3,227
$1,352,045	-24.5%	162.4%	$932	1450	0	$556,026,619
$289,338	-78.6%	-42.5%	$200	1450	0	$556,315,957
$247,673	-14.4%	-47.3%	$171	1450	0	$556,563,630
$241,977	-2.3%	-48.0%	$167	1450	0	$556,805,607	$6,810,588	-2.7%	$4,697

That's $556.8 million after 63 days, and it's definitely heading for the $580 million territory. Two things are most likely to happen: it'll drop less than that from its 3rd weekend and the weekends after, because it friggin' dropped 44% on its 2nd weekend and of course, WB will push it HARD.

That's what my bull's eye projection was as of last night. At the moment, it is probably $600m.

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Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:32 pm

Excel

Superfreak

Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22187
Location: Places

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

Saw it tonight, 90% full at a 9:30 showing :yes:

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Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:38 am

lancer1997

Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:41 am
Posts: 457

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

A poster on BOM just said his theatre was only down less than 3% today. (they were down 17% monday to tuesday)

Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:40 am

billybobwashere

He didn't look busy?!

Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 3:59 pm
Posts: 4308

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

if that's true, awesome, but it's one theater out of over 4000.

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Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:42 am

Killing With Kindness

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

lancer1997 wrote:

A poster on BOM just said his theatre was only down less than 3% today. (they were down 17% monday to tuesday)

good good, a 4% overall drop keeps the film over 20m.

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Thu Jul 24, 2008 3:44 am

Kenspy

Into the fray

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

this movie is an absolute behemoth in the box office...this is so great.

Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:06 am

Killing With Kindness

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

Kenspy wrote:

this movie is an absolute behemoth in the box office...this is so great.

no doubt, anything over 18m is flat out amazing.

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Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:08 am

bl1222

Veteran

Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm
Posts: 3900

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

07/24/08
Regal Union Square Stadium 14
7:00
7:01
7:30
8:10
8:50
9:40
AMC Loews Kips Bay 15
7:00
8:00
AMC Empire 25
7:15
7:15
7:45
8:30
AMC Loews 34th Street 14
7:45
8:30
AMC Loews Lincoln Square 13 with IMAX
7:45
7:45 (possible IMAX or interlock)
7:45 (possible interlock or IMAX)
Regal Battery Park Stadium 11
8:10
Linden Boulevard Multiplex Cinemas
9:45
AMC Clifton Commons 16
7:30
10:45
AMC River East 21 (It's 5:30 in Chicago)
5:30
6:00
7:30
8:30
9:15

Last edited by bl1222 on Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Thu Jul 24, 2008 6:37 pm

lancer1997

Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:41 am
Posts: 457

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

bl1222 wrote:

07/24/08
Regal Union Square Stadium 14
7:00
7:01
7:30
8:10
8:50
9:40
AMC Loews Kips Bay 15
7:00
8:30
AMC Empire 25
7:15
7:15
7:45

How does that compare to yesterday in the same area?

Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:02 pm

Keyser Söze

Quality is a great business plan

Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6739

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

I was keeping an eye on sellouts yesterday(I was at home) and NY and AMC River East will anyway sellout. We need numbers from other places and still we cant be sure extrapolating it(yesterday looked better than tuesday). I think last 2 days jmorphin's theater was mimicking drops and so it would interesting to note today's performance/

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Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:46 pm

lancer1997

Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:41 am
Posts: 457

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

shawmanus wrote:

We need to hold. No worse than 8% today.

Must have a $17 million Thursday.

Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:59 pm

mdana

Veteran

Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

lancer1997 wrote:

bl1222 wrote:

07/24/08
Regal Union Square Stadium 14
7:00
7:01
7:30
8:10
8:50
9:40
AMC Loews Kips Bay 15
7:00
8:30
AMC Empire 25
7:15
7:15
7:45

How does that compare to yesterday in the same area?

I was checking those yesterday around 6:00 and those look pretty much the same.

JMorphin's theater (Austin, Tx?)/National Avg.

Monday -51%/-43.7%
Tuesday-11%/-14.8%
Wednesday-11%/-11.9%

So his theater has been a pretty indicator at least the past few days.

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Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:47 pm

JMorphin

Indiana Jones IV

Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:58 am
Posts: 1335
Location: Austin, TX

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

Sorry guys, it rained in Austin on THU so I can't give you an accurate indicator today. Business increased 5% but it's obviously inflated due to the weather. We're just going to have to hope for the best

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Fri Jul 25, 2008 7:58 am

Mr. Reynolds

Confessing on a Dance Floor

Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:46 am
Posts: 5578
Location: Celebratin' in Chitown

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

bump tons of theater and sellout info here to compare against HP6 which already has more midnights than TDK sold (16 vs 14)

Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:54 pm

Keyser Söze

Quality is a great business plan

Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6739

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

Hey Reynold,
Are you talking about AMC River East. I thought TDK sold out more and searched TDK crowd reports at BOM/here. Got this post confirming 16 sellouts on thursday last year. But HP6 is beating TDK in so many places that 20M looks probable at this point.

dav3290 wrote:

http://www.movietickets.com/house_detail.asp?house_id=8267&showdate=1

The AMC River East in chicago has sold out of 16 midnight shows.

Incredible.

Meanwhile, back in good ole New Orleans, weve sold out of 3 midnights at our popular theater and 2 midnights at the less popular theater in the mall.

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Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:33 pm

Mr. Reynolds

Confessing on a Dance Floor

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Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

^ yeah AMC River East. My last update had 14 but I didn't post until Friday so it may have gone up to 16. either way, HP6 is pretty much neck and neck, if not ahead.

Tue Jul 14, 2009 10:14 pm

Excel

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Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

one of my fave threads

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Wed Jul 15, 2009 1:46 am

Ghostooze

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Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

seemed like just yesterday Dark Knight was selling out everywhere this weekend... :tears:

Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:49 pm

Excel

Superfreak

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Location: Places

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

BJ wrote:

everywhere = soldout

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Ari Emmanuel wrote:

I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.

Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:12 pm

Excel

Superfreak

Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22187
Location: Places

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

One of the greatest threads ever!

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Ari Emmanuel wrote:

I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.

Sat Jul 13, 2013 1:15 am

Killing With Kindness

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska

Re: The Dark Knight pre-sales and sellout watch

BJ wrote:

There are no sane and insane predicts, the films is 150% guaranteed to top 400m with such relative ease that magnus will wonder why ever ever doubted such an inevitability.

400m+

BJs Prediction:

148m | 510m

100% guaranteed head exploding 55m+ opening day
100% guaranteed ball crushing 136m+ opening wknd
100% guaranteed eye popping 4 wks straight over 20m
100% guaranteed GUARANTEED! top grosser of 2008
150% guaranteed jaw dropping 400m+

forgot...

100% guaranteed Sith smothering 17m+ midnight showings.

good times

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