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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Updated predictions:
Opening - $53.3 million
Total: $295.5 million (5.54)
Opening Day - $18.9 million
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| Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:59 pm |
 
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Chip Munkington wrote: 86% vote $60+ mil  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:59 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Jon wrote: Updated predictions:
Opening - $53.3 million
Total: $295.5 million (5.54)
Opening Day - $18.9 million your being a pansy _________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:00 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12194
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Reviews are critical for Avatar. If Avatar maintains its 90% + review average some how by Friday, it would be the difference between a $50 m and $80 m + opening weekend imo. Google Trends are showing high, high search interest in Avatar's reviews over any other aspect of it. There are many people on the fence on this one, but if it keeps the reviews together its primed for a massive break out.
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| Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:03 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Predict Avatars Opening Day
Rev - 80m
BJs Prediction: 40.77m
Telemachos 32.6m
Gamaur - 31m
Keyser Soze - 31m
したい - 27m
Chip Munkington: 26.00m
Mark66 - 24m
Mesjarch - 20m
Zingy - 19m
Jon - 18.9m
MG Casey: 16.80m
Mr. Green - 15m
Average: 30.93m
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:06 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Predictions for AvatarDecember Update #4Opening Wknd:LadiesMan - 35m MG Casey - 44m Excel - 45m Jon - 53.3 2001 - 55m billybobwashere - 55m Madgez - 59mMagnus - 60m Zingy - 65m BK - 65m Nebs - 65m Archangel - 65m したい - 65m The Dark Shape - 65mKris K - 70m Mark66 - 70m Chip Munkington - 75m Flava'd - 77m Telemachos - 81m Gamaur - 89m Keyser Soze - 90m Justice - 91m Benny Blanco - 91m SolC9 - 94m BJ - 106.32m Rev - 170m Average Opening Wknd Prediction: 67.72m Domestic Total:LadiesMan - 140m | multiplier - 4.00 MG Casey - 176m | multiplier - 4.00 Excel - 200m | multiplier - 4.44 Kris K - 210m | multiplier - 3.00 Zingy - 234m | multiplier - 3.60 BK - 235m | multiplier - 3.61 Nebs - 240m | multiplier - 3.69 Archangel - 240m | multiplier - 3.69 Madgez - 247m | multiplier - 4.19Magnus - 250m | multiplier - 4.17 2001 - 250m | multiplier - 4.55 したい - 265m | multiplier - 4.82 billybobwashere - 285m | multiplier - 5.18 Jon - 295.5m | multiplier - 5.54 The Dark Shape - 310m | multiplier - 4.77Telemachos - 340m | multiplier - 4.20 Nazgul - 350m | multiplier - - Justice - 377m | multiplier - 4.08 Chip Munkington - 415m | multiplier - 5.53 Flava'd - 420m | multiplier - 5.45 Mark66 - 450m | multiplier - 6.43 SolC9 - 459m | multiplier - 4.88 Keyser Soze - 475m | multiplier - 5.28 BennyBlanco - 501m | multiplier - 5.51 Gamaur - 510m | multiplier - 5.74 Rev - 600m | multiplier - 3.53 BJ - 811m | multiplier - 7.62 Average Domestic Total Prediction: 324.65m Average Multiplyer: 4.67
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:35 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread O wrote: Reviews are critical for Avatar. If Avatar maintains its 90% + review average some how by Friday, it would be the difference between a $50 m and $80 m + opening weekend imo. Google Trends are showing high, high search interest in Avatar's reviews over any other aspect of it. There are many people on the fence on this one, but if it keeps the reviews together its primed for a massive break out. _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:21 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread It'll likely finish in the low/mid 80's, which is just fine. The negative reviews so far say the same thing "weak story, but pretty", so that'll be a common trend that will probably keep it from 90,
Though it's getting slightly better reviews than I thought, so the reviews so far have me interested.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:29 am |
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Nebs
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:01 pm
Posts: 6385
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Opening Day : $25.4m
EDIT:
Opening Day: $24.6m
Saturday: $21.8m
Sunday: $13.2m
Weekend: $59.4m
Total: $228.1m (3.84)
_________________
---!!---!!!!!!-11!!---!!---11---11!!!--!!--
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| Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:07 am |
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KC
Team Kris
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 4:57 pm
Posts: 1024
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Opening day- 28 mil
Opening weekend- 62 mil
Total- 275 mil
_________________
"You're going to tell me what I want to know. The only question is how much you want it to hurt."
Jack Bauer- Season 5
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| Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:47 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread The Magnus wrote: BJ: My prediction is 60m/300m, not 60m/250m. i don't read random posts, i read official updates. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Dec 15, 2009 2:56 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Dec 15, 2009 2:58 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread BJ wrote: Magnus wrote: Opening weekend breakdown:
OD: 25m
Sat: 21m (16% drop. There will be a fanboy rush)
Sun: 14m (33% drop)
OW: 60m
Total: 300m (assuming a BP nomination that will give it the legs post-holidays) prediction = pure shit i think I know why it was ignored _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:00 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread RT Update:AvatarReviews: 58Fresh/Rotten: 50 Fresh /8 Rotten86% Fresh / 14% RottenAverage Rating: 7.6 / 10Cream of the CropReviews: 8Fresh/Rotten: 8 Fresh / 0 Rotten 100% Fresh / 0% RottenAverage Rating: 7.6 / 10 Its got 75% from the users with 293 fresh and 94 rotten, average grade is 7.6
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:04 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Final Prediction:
OD: 30.0m
Saturday: 27.0m (-10%)
Sunday: 16.2m (-40%)
OW: 73.2m
Domestic Total: 307.4m (4.2 multiplier)
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:56 pm |
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Tuukka
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:35 am
Posts: 1830
Location: Helsinki, Finland
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread After having seen the film, I think the it will have good, but not spectacular WOM. So a 4.0 multiplier sounds about right to me. With a 60 million opening that would mean a 240 million gross. Which I think will be very good for it.
I have to say thought that the romance angle is something that will probably appeal a great deal to a lot of women. There's not uncanny valley in Avatar, the navi's feel completely real and relatable. So that might push WOM further. The love story is very dramatic, and might hit the right buttons. I thought it was engaging, but not *that* emotionally affecting. But a lot of females might disagree.
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:43 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread I love how people point out it's cornyness/cheesyness... but Titanic was corny/cheesy beyond belief!
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 4:08 pm |
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Tuukka
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:35 am
Posts: 1830
Location: Helsinki, Finland
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Chip Munkington wrote: I love how people point out it's cornyness/cheesyness... but Titanic was corny/cheesy beyond belief! The film is somewhat corny/cheesy, but in a way that is not going to bother mainstream audiences at all. It's exactly the kind of cheese that will appeal to big audiences. I saw the film with four males in their late 20's, and only one of them complained about the cheesiness, and he's a hardcore movie geek. The film has so much badassery and ass-kicking, that that the cheesiness isn't really a problem.
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 4:14 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread 80/320
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 4:23 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread RT Update:AvatarReviews: 92 Fresh/Rotten: 77 Fresh /15 Rotten Certified Fresh84% Fresh / 16% RottenAverage Rating: 7.4 / 10Cream of the CropReviews: 18Fresh/Rotten: 17 Fresh / 1 Rotten 94% Fresh / 6% RottenAverage Rating: 7.4 / 10 Its got 75% from the users with 355 fresh and 108 rotten, average grade is 7.6
_________________The Force Awakens
Last edited by BJ on Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:44 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread When will you see 'Avatar?'
62.0% - Opening Weekend
24.3% - Sometime in Theaters
6.9% - On DVD
5.6% - Never
1.2% - On TV
1,728 polled
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:46 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread How much will 'Avatar' gross on its opening weekend?
34.5% - $80-$100 million
31.1% - More than $100 million
23.0% - $60-$80 million
9.0% - $40-$60 million
2.3% - Less than $40 million
687 users polled.
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:47 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Predict Avatars Opening Day
Rev - 80m
BJs Prediction: 40.77m
Telemachos 32.6m
Gamaur - 31m
Keyser Soze - 31m
2001 - 30m
KC - 28m
したい - 27m
Chip Munkington: 26.00m
Nebs - 24.6m
Mark66 - 24m
Mesjarch - 20m
Zingy - 19m
Jon - 18.9m
MG Casey: 16.80m
Mr. Green - 15m
LadiesMan217 - 13.5
Average: 28.13m
_________________The Force Awakens
Last edited by BJ on Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:52 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
Posts: 8202
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread $13.5 M OD
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:54 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Predictions for AvatarDecember Update #5Opening Wknd:LadiesMan - 35m MG Casey - 44m Excel - 45m Jon - 53.3 2001 - 55m billybobwashere - 55m Madgez - 59m Tuukka - 60mMagnus - 60m KC - 62mZingy - 65m BK - 65m Nebs - 59.4m Archangel - 65m したい - 65m The Dark Shape - 65m Kris K - 70m Mark66 - 70m Chip Munkington - 75m Flava'd - 77m Proud Ryu - 80mTelemachos - 81m Gamaur - 89m Keyser Soze - 90m Justice - 91m Benny Blanco - 91m SolC9 - 94m BJ - 106.32m Rev - 170m Average Opening Wknd Prediction: 67.48m Domestic Total:LadiesMan - 140m | multiplier - 4.00 MG Casey - 176m | multiplier - 4.00 Excel - 200m | multiplier - 4.44 Kris K - 210m | multiplier - 3.00 Nebs - 228.1m | multiplier - 3.84 Zingy - 234m | multiplier - 3.60 BK - 235m | multiplier - 3.61 Archangel - 240m | multiplier - 3.69 Tuukka - 240m | multiplier - 4.00Madgez - 247m | multiplier - 4.19 2001 - 250m | multiplier - 4.55 したい - 265m | multiplier - 4.82 KC - 275m | multiplier - 4.44billybobwashere - 285m | multiplier - 5.18 Jon - 295.5m | multiplier - 5.54 Magnus - 300m | multiplier - 5.00 The Dark Shape - 310m | multiplier - 4.77 Proud Ryu - 320m | multiplier - 4.06Telemachos - 340m | multiplier - 4.20 Nazgul - 350m | multiplier - - Justice - 377m | multiplier - 4.08 Chip Munkington - 415m | multiplier - 5.53 Flava'd - 420m | multiplier - 5.45 Mark66 - 450m | multiplier - 6.43 SolC9 - 459m | multiplier - 4.88 Keyser Soze - 475m | multiplier - 5.28 BennyBlanco - 501m | multiplier - 5.51 Gamaur - 510m | multiplier - 5.74 Rev - 600m | multiplier - 3.53 BJ - 811m | multiplier - 7.62 Average Domestic Total Prediction: 322.62m Average Multiplyer: 4.65
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Wed Dec 16, 2009 8:15 pm |
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