AUSTRALIAN Preview

June 23 - Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2
June 29 - Transformers 3 (Wed), Mr. Popper's Penguins
July 5 - No major releases
July 13 - Harry Potter 7-2: DH (Wed)
July 21 - The Beaver, Larry Crowne
July 28 - Captain America
August 4 - Green Lantern

It's been 10 years and now just 1 month until the release of the final installment. Let's take a step back into the past; beginning with November 2001.

2001 was a watershed year for Australian Box Office lead by two fantasy juggernauts. Philosopher's Stone as it's called here claimed the opening weekend (and screen count) record and was only the 2nd movie to open north of AU$9m (the other was Phantom Menace). It ruled at #1 for 4 straight weeks (blocking American Pie 2) until the release of another fantasy record breaker; FOTR opened over the Boxing Day frame. FOTR would go on to claim both the opening and yearly crowns with HP1 a close second. It was the first time two movies grossed more than $40m in one year (this is a feat which held until 2009 when 3 movies grossed more than $40m, more on that later). HP1 was the 4th largest movie of all-time at the end of the 2001 BO year, and is now 10th on the all-time charts.

2002 was fierce with Star Wars 2 claiming the opening weekend record (first to top $10m and $11m on opening). Spiderman opened a few weeks later and also passed HP1/FOTR's opening; becoming the 2nd to top $10m on opening. Those movies dominated the Winter Season here in Australia; grossing north of $30m. Emulating its release back in 2001, Chamber of Secrets notched the 2nd largest opening of all-time (behind only AOTC but just above Spiderman 1); however, experienced greater resistence in the form of Die Another Day which cut it short it's reign at the top to only 2 weeks. The attention however for the Summer Season was drawn towards the much anticipated release of TTT. While Chambers dropped slightly from Philosopher and failed to crack $40m total; TTT raised the opening bar to a mammoth $14m (a feat not surpassed for 7 years; and guessed which movie ended it...find out latter). TTT failed to top FOTR but still managed $46m (only $1m behind FOTR).

2004's HP3 had an appalling release date and remains to this day the lowest of the franchise in overall total ($33m). It had the misfortune of opening 1 week before the mother of all animated releases; Shrek 2. While HP3 had the lucrative Queen's Birthday long weekend (meaning Monday was a holiday) and claimed the 4th largest ever opening at $11.9m (topped only by TTT, ROTK and Matrix Reloaded) it was eaten alive by Shrek 2, down 66% in its 2nd weekend in the face of Shrek 2's $13.6m opening (2nd largest at the time). This was also the first time Potter failed to place inside the Top 2 for the Year (Meet the Fockers filled the void left by LOTRs).

2005's HP4 took the franchise back to winning ways, topping the year again (albeit very close battle with ROTS and Narnia, all within a $1m range at $35m). Goblet elevated the franchise above $12m opening and was the 5th largest opening at that time behind only TTT, ROTS, Shrek 2, ROTK. Goblet's 2 week run at the top was ended by King Kong.

2007 was a very strong year; with the Top 4 movies of the year topping $30m and all opening within the May-July portion. At the top was HP5 at $35.5m (the 3rd time a Potter release has risen to the top for the year), it beat out stiff comp from Shrek 3, Pirates 3 and Simpsons. HP5 delivered another franchise topping opening with $12.87m but was gazumped by Simpsons' surprising $13.2m opening over the regular 4-Day frame. HP5 had a 5-Day opening (it opened on Wednesday) and made $17m (so if you count that, it was the #1 opening all-time at the time).

2009's HP6 was the movie which ended TTT's $14.1m opening recordl; Prince made $14.33m (and this does not include the fact that it opened on a Wednesday and actually made $18.7m by the end of the weekend). It did drop quite quickly though, down 55%, then 53% subsequently however the huge opening allowed it to return the franchise to the $40m total range (8 years after HP1). HP6 ended the year #2 behind Avatar's $116m and fought off Transformers 2 (also topping $40m and was $150k behind HP6) and New Moon's $38m. HP and Transformers are back to do it again in 2011.

2010's HP7-1 continued the franchise legacy of having bigger and bigger openings. It hasn't faltered yet. HP6's opening record stood for only 4 months; topped by New Moon's $16.1m and while HP7-1 was close last November, it came up just short at $15.3m; however things are looking good for HP7-2 to finally knock it out of the park (well, at least until Breaking Dawn ). HP7-1 perforned just like HP6 and also delivered a $40m gross; a smidgen above HP6, not quite big enough to beat Toy Story 3 but still a strong second and the franchise's 2nd largest release to date.

All up, the 7 movies so far have delivered in excess of $250m. 3 Yearly Crowns (2001, 2005, 2007), 2 opening records (HP1 and HP6), all but 2 movies (HP1/2) outside of the Top 20 all-time openers list, no picture less than $33m and 3 above $40m (tieing LOTRs in terms of franchise). Can you get anything more consistent? Definately not in Australia.

HP7-2 has pretty much everything going for it. Unlike HP7-1 and the majority of other Potter releases, HP7-2 opens on a Wednesday and what is sure to be a mammoth screen count. This will mark only the 3rd time a Potter release has opened on Wednesday. It's yielded some massive 5-Day openings (HP5 and HP6 all grossed north of $17m) and this time around could well be the first time we hit $20m in 5-Days. I'm pretty confident here we'll see a record breaking opening frame (both 4-Days and 5-Days) and possibly an opening day record as well. ROTK's $5.268m opening day is still at the top followed closely by TTT's $5.23m. The only other movie to gross north of $5m on opening day is New Moon at $5m. HP6 came closes at $4.374m and HP5's $4.1m and HP7-1's $4m was valiant efforts. Let's see whether 3D can make a difference. It's only competition is Transformers 3 and Captain America, there's hardly any notable releases in between HP7-2 and those movies so should allow alot of breathing room. Total wise, expect north of $45m and i wouldn't rule out $50m; i'm pegging this at $48m at this point time (which will be $5m above HP1's $43m).

Prediction: Harry Potter 7-2: DH - AUD$16.5m // AUD$48m

Avatar - AUD$11,962,308 // AUD$116m - 9.74x
Titanic - AUD$3,175,581 // AUD$57,644,334 - 18.15x
Shrek 2 - AUD$13,159,869 // AUD$50,121,453 - 3.8x
Lord of the Rings: ROTK - AUD$12,752,305 // AUD$49,331,621 - 3.9x
Crocodile Dundee - AUD$47,707,045
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - AUD$9,757,556 // AUD$47,035,700 - 3.5x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - AUD$14,139,499 // AUD$45,588,777 - 3.2x
The Dark Knight - AUD$11,779,716 4-Day // $14,057,430 5-Day // $45.5m - 3.86x
Toy Story 3 - AUD$7,408,201 // AUD$ // $42.4m - 5.73x
Harry Potter 1: PS - AUD$9,249,505 // AUD$42,310,037 - 4.57x
Harry Potter 7-I: Deathly Hallows - AUD$15.3m // AUD$41.9m - 2.73x
Harry Potter 6: HBP - AUD$14,330,931 4-Day // AUD$18,705,212 5-Day // AUD$40,596,033 - 2.83x
Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen - AUD$13,647,361 4-Day // $16,294,847 5-Day // AUD$40,340,888 - 2.95x
Star Wars 1: PM - AUD$9,148,888 // AUD$38,828,310 - 4.24x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - AUD$11,215,765 // AUD$38,051,837 - 3.39x
Alice In Wonderland - AUD$10,377,137 // $AUD$37.6m - 3.62x
Finding Nemo - AUD$8,038,861 // AUD$37,394,203 - 4.65x
Harry Potter 2: COS - AUD$10,640,941 // AUD$37,379,563 - 3.5x
Australia - $6,373,903 4-Day // $7,781,155 // $37.3m - 5.85x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - AUD$12,355,237 // AUD$35,448,830 - 2.87x
Inception - AUD$7,428,415 // $35.5m - 4.8x
Star Wars 3: ROTS - AUD$13,359,734 // AUD$35,453,636 - 2.65x
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - AUD$12,871,680 4-Day // AUD$16,973,961 5-Day // AUD$35.4m - 2.75x
Chronicles of Narnia: TLTW&TW - AUD$6,642,424 // AUD$34,988,517 - 5.27x
Meet The Fockers - AUD$2,617,013 // AUD$34,975,476 - 13.3x
Star Wars 2: AOTC - AUD$11,961,798 // AUD$33,862,850 -2.83x
Shrek 3 - AUD$10,344,442 // AUD$33.7m - 3.25x
The Matrix: Reloaded - AUD$11,182,572 // AUD$33,624,930 - 3x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World's End - AUD$12,074,242 // AUD$33.2m - 2.74x
Harry Potter 3: POA - AUD$11,935,745 // AUD$33,030,534 - 2.77x

That's still awesome for Russia where it will rank inside the Top 5 largest openings ever.

The grosses so far have been fantastic.

Yeah they have, this is going to shatter the fastest overseas record, easily.

Not surprising given that South Korea was its only major market that opened on Thursday. The rest were all middle/small markets.

HP has been pretty ordinary in Korea lately, i wonder what it did on opening...