I think people will be fine with waiting for Christmas. It's not like ROTJ ended on a cliffhanger. Middle Earth fans are just as rabid as SW fans, seven though they are a slightly smaller group, and less devoted to seeing the bad installments, like the Hobbit.

I don't believe Star Wars alone can make up $150m. You need general moviegoers too, and to them December is still December and therefore not really a rush-out-movie-going time. They still see movies, just not IMMEDIATELY.

Trailer has been up for months now. But dam, it was fun watching in a theater before Ant-Man. No reactions to anything else, but everyone got super quiet and still a few cheers afterwards. I haven't seen a trailer do that in years, let alone to a 3+ month old one.

Yeah, when the LucasFilms logo showed up that was the loudest reaction the theater got seeing Ant Man last night.

Obv, STAR WARS is the ultimate geek property.

Whereas decades old comic book characters Batman and Superman, if people were excited at that trailer, that would be something to take seriously!

Its no different, you are right. It will open higher than SW for different reasons, mainly the release date.

man when Lucasfilms shows up at ~7:10pm on December 17th, theater is gonna go absolutely nuts

then the opening scrawl

It will be a fanboy experience like few before, no doubt. Hardcore movie fans cannot miss it. They simply can't.

Despite all of their moaning, Star Wars fans are loyal as fuck. They'll all show up again.

Ooooohhhh yaaahhh! And we will show our BO dominance once more.

BJs Prediction:

Star Wars Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Previews: 45.95m -
Opening Day: 102.55m
2nd Day: 34.88m -65%
Opening Wknd: 157.99m - Fri: 46.77m +34% / Sat: 62.11m +33% / Sun: 49.11m -20%
6-Day: 327.86m - Mon: 32.44m -34%
7-Day: 354.63m - Tue: 30.77m -5%
8-Day: 388.85m - Wed: 30.22m -2%
9-Day: 408.96m - Thur: 20.11m -33%
2nd Wknd: 120.05m -24% - Fri: 35.22m +75% / Sat: 45.88m +30% / Sun: 38.95m -15%
13-Day: 560.99m - Mon: 30.99m -20%
14-Day: 588.99m - Tue: 28.99m -6%
15-Day: 616.79m - Wed: 27.80m -4%
16-Day: 639.29m - Thur: 22.50m -19%
3rd Wknd: 86.75m -27% - Fri: 30.99m +37% / Sat: 34.11m +10% / Sun: 21.65m -35%
20-Day: 733.44m - Mon: 7.40m -65%
21-Day: 741.59m - Tue: 8.15m +10%
22-Day: 748.04m - Wed: 6.45m -20%
23-Day: 754.14m - Thur: 6.10m -5%
4th Wknd: 52.65m -39% - Fri: 14.65m +140% / Sat: 23.50m +60% / Sun: 14.50m -38%
27-Day: 811.14m - Mon: 4.35m -71%
28-Day: 816.39m - Tue: 5.25m +20%
29-Day: 820.34m - Wed: 3.95m -25%
30-Day: 824.14m - Thur: 3.80m -5%
5th Wknd: 37.40m -29% - Fri: 8.75m +130% / Sat: 15.35m +75% / Sun: 13.30m -13%
4-Day-Wknd: 47.40m -10% - Mon: 10.00m -25%
35-Day: 875.39m - Tue: 3.85m -61%
36-Day: 878.04m - Wed: 2.65m -30%
37-Day: 880.69m - Thur: 2.65m NC
6th Wknd: 26.15m -30% - Fri: 6.50m +145% / Sat: 12.05m +85% / Sun: 7.60m -37%
41-Day: 908.89m - Mon: 4.35m -72%
42-Day: 911.59m - Tue: 5.25m +30%
43-Day: 913.49m - Wed: 3.95m -30%
44-Day: 915.49m - Thur: 3.80m +5%
7th Wknd: 20.40m -22% - Fri: 5.00m +150% / Sat: 9.25m +85% / Sun: 13.30m -34%
48-Day: 937.39m - Mon: 1.50m -75%
49-Day: 939.44m - Tue: 2.05m +35%
50-Day: 940.84m - Wed: 1.40m -30%
51-Day: 942.24m - Thur: 1.40m NC
8th Wknd: 13.25m -35% - Fri: 3.65m +160% / Sat: 7.00m +90% / Sun: 2.60m -63%
55-Day: 956.79m - Mon: 1.30m -50%
56-Day: 958.34m - Tue: 1.55m +20%
57-Day: 959.49m - Wed: 1.15m -26%
58-Day: 960.64m - Thur: 1.15m NC
9th Wknd: 13.25m NC - Fri: 2.50m +115% / Sat: 5.00m +100% / Sun: 5.75m +15%
4-Day-Wknd: 17.25m +30% - Mon: 4.00m -30%
63-Day: 979.29m - Tue: 1.40m -65%
64-Day: 980.29m - Wed: 1.00m -29%
65-Day: 981.29m - Thur: 1.00m NC
10th Wknd: 8.95m -32% - Fri: 2.20m +115% / Sat: 4.10m +85% / Sun: 2.65m -35%
69-Day: 990.94m - Mon: 70m -73%
70-Day: 991.94m - Tue: 1.00m +40%
71-Day: 992.64m - Wed: .70m -25%
72-Day: 993.34m - Thur: .70m NC
11th Wknd: 7.15m -20% - Fri: 1.70m +140% / Sat: 3.50m +105% / Sun: 1.95m -42%
Wk-0: 137.43m | Total: 137.43m
Wk-1: 271.53m - Wknd: 157.99m | Total: 408.96m
Wk-2: 230.33m - Wknd: 120.05m | Total: 639.29m
Wk-3: 114.85m - Wknd: 86.75m | Total: 754.14m
Wk-4: 70.00m - Wknd: 52.65m | Total: 824.14m
Wk-5: 56.55m - Wknd: 37.40m - 4-Day-Wknd: 37.40m | Total: 880.69m
Wk-6: 34.80m - Wknd: 26.15m | Total: 915.49m
Wk-7: 26.75m - Wknd: 20.40m | Total: 942.24m
Wk-8: 18.40m - Wknd: 13.25m | Total: 960.64m
Wk-9: 20.65m - Wknd: 13.25m - 4-Day-Wknd: 17.25m | Total: 981.29m
Wk-10: 12.05m - Wknd: 8.95m | Total: 993.34m
Wk-11: 9.75m - Wknd: 7.15m | Total: 1,003.09m
Wk-12: 7.00m - Wknd: 5.15m | Total: 1,010.09m
Wk-13: 5.90m - Wknd: 3.85m | Total: 1,015.99m
Wk-14: 3.25m - Wknd: 2.10m | Total: 1,019.24m
Wk-15: 1.30m - Wknd: .95m | Total: 1,020.54m
Wk-16: 1.05m - Wknd: .80m | Total: 1,021.59m
Wk-17: 1.20m - Wknd: .90m | Total: 1,022.79m
Wk-18: 1.00m - Wknd: .70m | Total: 1,023.79m
Wk-19: .75m - Wknd: .50m | Total: 1,024.54m
Wk-20: 2.65m - Wknd: 1.75m | Total: 1,027.19m
Wk-21: .70m - Wknd: .55m | Total: 1,027.89m
Wk-22: .55m - Wknd: .40m | Total: 1,028.44m
Wk-23: .50m - Wknd: .30m - 4-Day-Wknd: .40m | Total: 1,028.94m
Wk-24: .25m - Wknd: .15m | Total: 1,029.19m
Wk-25: .15m - Wknd: .10m | Total: 1,029.34m
Money Made After Wk-25: ~.5m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 30
Consecutive Days Over 1m: 68
Days to 50m: 1-Days - 102.55m
Days to 100m: 1-Days - 102.55m
Days to 150m: 3-Days - 184.20m
Days to 200m: 4-Days - 246.31m
Days to 250m: 5-Days - 295.42m
Days to 300m: 6-Days - 327.86m
Days to 350m: 7-Days - 358.63m
Days to 400m: 9-Days - 408.96m
Days to 450m: 11-Days - 490.06m
Days to 500m: 12-Days - 529.01m
Days to 550m: 13-Days - 560.00m
Days to 600m: 15-Days - 616.79m
Days to 650m: 17-Days - 670.28m
Days to 700m: 18-Days - 704.39m
Days to 750m: 23-Days - 754.14m
Days to 800m: 26-Days - 806.79m
Days to 850m: 33-Days - 861.54m
Days to 900m: 40-Days - 906.84m
Days to 950m: 53-Days - 952.89m
Days to 1b: 75-Days - 1,000.49b
Domestic Total: 1,029.5b
International Total: 1,570b
World Wide Total: 2,600b

Multiplier: 6.50

That's my BJ.

Although I think there's a typo on your opening weekend gross? And the Wednesday move isn't confirmed yet from what I can find...

Fixed the opening wknd, thanks for spotting that. For now the Wednesday move is just a rumor, but I think it will happen, if not I have a Friday release draft as well.

BJ just predicted $1b domestically.

Excel, it's your move.

His opening weekend is much higher than mine, though his legs are beyond best case scenario IMO. I won't predict legs - good or bad - with zero knowledge of plot/quality.

Dammit, man, I'm expecting you to counter by saying BVS will make $1.2b.

Well, that sounds about right.

Previews: 50m
FriDAY: 80m
Sat: 80m
Sun: 60m
OW: $270m
Mon-Thur: $140m
2nd weekend: 170m
Mon-Thur: 90m
3rd weekend: $110m
Mon-Thur: 60m
4th weekend: 75m
Mon-Thur: 45m
5th Weekend: 55m
Mon-Thur: 35m
6th weekend: 40m
Mon-Thur: 26m
7th Weekend: 30m
Mon-Thur: 21m
8th Weekend: $22m
Mon-Thurs: 16m

8 Weekend total: $1.3b
Final total $1.4b
Overseason: 3.6b
WW: $5b

Rewatched ESB last night while the story is still very strong and Yoda is one of the finest cinema characters ever, the dialogue is still terrible and the acting by Hamill and Fisher just ranges from decent to terrible. Some of Hamill's lines are HOLY SHIT bad. Han Solo's dialogue is cringe worthy but Ford is able to generally make it work.

Examples? I agree dialogue is not even the OT's strong suit, but I don't remember anything cringe worthy.