An incident so amazing, so horrifying, that it defies explination.

I see this movie pulling in 72-92m heavily dependant on the oscar season nominations.

We will likely have some studio stats by the end of the weekend. I'm sure at least 45% of the audience will be 17-25. Walk the line will be very lucky to have 35%. The young audience will not just show up mindlessly to a movie like Walk the Line. I think that should go without saying though. It's not a concidence that many action movies get more then 70% over 25 if they are the type. Sky Captain tanked because it couldn't get a young audience.

I agree with Zing; I'd bet anything it won't open to 35m. BTW, I'm only in the under 100m club if it's released on DVD in February, as I expect. If it becomes a favorite to win BP and it's in theaters at the time, it will hit 100m without a doubt. But, who really knows what the studio might do with the DVD release.

I was born and raised in the U.S. and I have no idea what he means to Americans.

Walk the Line will be lucky to top $20 mill on OW, let alone $35 mill.

Drop the and go breath some fresh air outside.

Jerry Lee Lewis, Tina Turner------------>Johnny Cash.

in what way? fan base,record sales, #1 hits, hall of fame???

Relativity, being appealing, having an interesting story, fans to boot.

Tina Turner's movie coming off her big comeback, with a BA nom and buzz, only made like 37 mil total. The point is that Johnny Cash can't push this movie to 100 mil just from 'how much Americans adore him'.

Johnny Cash sold more, has more #1s, has more awards. But Lewis and Turner have better story-bases in them, have characters easier to relate to, they have more base. And they had 13 mil and 37 mil totals. I'm not saying WTL will flop necessarily, but it can't absolutely obliterate those films and take 100 mil+ just because Cash is such an icon.

Superman is by far and away the most famous superhero and has the most succesful comic, yet his movies don't touch a candle to Spiderman's movies. Cash sold a lot of records, but the movie needs something more.

Shack is showing himself to be a clueless airhead once again.

Shack, stay out of this thread. I don't want to see anymore of your made up facts that make you look like a complete moron. Understand me? Post proof, or STFU. Your retarded act has worn thin.

I think that Walk the Line is going to get plenty of teenagers, in addition to everyone else that would be going otherwise. However, I would make an argument that the huge appeal to the 17-25 audience did help out Jarhead in a big way. Considering the mediocre reviews, I don't think there's any way it would have pulled off an opening much higher then 20 million if that demographic hadn't so heavily shown up due to the younger actors, Kayne West in the trailers, and the bold energy the trailers generated. I don't think that Walk the Line will have as many teenagers come, and I do think it will have a lower opening weekend, but do I think the two are connected? Na, I'd just say that it's trailer aren't quite as exciting and that it opens against Harry Potter, and will probably have legs that are MUCH better then Jarhead's.

I beg to differ. Depends which Americans you are talking about. Turner's biopic might have only gotten 37 million, but Loretta Lynne's got almost 70. Don't under-estimate rural, and country demographic. They put Dukes of Hazzard over 100 Million. They put Passion of Christ over 300 million. I'm not making excuses or anything, but alot of movies come out each year based on "urban" themes and heroes. How many come out based on country ones?



Better stories? Excuse me? What's more comfortable for audiances? A woman who struggles to leave her abusive husband and goes through the court system, or a man who is pulled out of drug problems through the salvation of love and religion? Look, I just read an article about it and would actually prefer the former story over the potential issues that come with the latter, but I have no doubt in my mind that Cash's life story is very appealing to most people. *C'mon...love and faith conquer all (tm)*.



Superman movies are form the seventies, and were done by different directors. There's no saying how much Superman would have grossed had it been released in 2000 under Riami's direction.

Some people will go to see it because it's about Johnny Cash, but that's not enough to make it a hit. Others, like me, want to see it because it looks like it will be well directed, well acted, and well made -- in other words, a good movie. The subject matter of any film only carries it for the first week or so, then it has to be good to survive. (see "Doom")

Yes, I agree with this, Mike. There are a lot of reasons for people to want to see it. I'd say my biggest reason, even though I'm a fan of the man, is because of the apparent quality of the film. I think any fans that are into the Oscars, or even if they're not, and just like movies that look good and could care less about the Oscars, will support it. Others might just go because they are die hard fans of Johnny Cash, which is why some went to see Doom, because they were die hard fans of the video game, and quality wasn't the priority. I think others, mostly girls, will go see it because it features Reese Witherspoon and is a love story. Some might even go because of the novelty of Joaquin and Reese singing and performing.

I think it's got so much going for it, from fans of Cash to fans of Reese to fans of country music to fans of Oscars to fans of quality films, that it'll have more than enough in the tank to be a big success. A success of the 100 million dollar domestic variety!

Hmmm. This is a fabrication. There is no "chat room incident". Maybe you are confusing me with someone else or someone was spoofing my name?


Actually I have had this discussion with Lecter in the other thread.

I have absolutely no clue. I've participated in the chat room twice and both times were positive experiences. I don't think it's me he is talking about, I've never had a flame war with Zingaling since the craphead thing.

Dolce, I can tell you in all confidence that Shack is quite clueless about the popularity of Superman comics compared to Spider-Man, and it's because of these made up facts that he constantly throws out to try to support his weak arguments that people like me and andaroo just tell him to shut up and don't want to bother with any debates with him anymore. I wasn't being mean to him for kicks on a Saturday night, but I'm fed up with him trying to present stuff as facts that I know better about. He can never produce a link when asked, and it's like he's just so into being argumentative for the sake of arguing, that he doesn't care what he has to say to achieve it, so save your breath or you'll be pulling your hair out as his arguments and claims that are easy enough to disprove start becoming more and more desperate.

If he would stop with the nonsense that he makes up and tries to present as facts, I'd actually be nicer to him, but he's got me to the point of just wanting to tear into him every time he starts that stupid nonsense.

...You actually think Superman is less famous than Spiderman?

Superman and Spider-Man are on equal terms as far as fame. Show their picture to anybody across the world, and anybody would know both of them. Spider-Man comics sell better throughout history, and Spider-Man is the more liked of the two.

That's exactly what I have been claiming all the time. It's impossible to say which one is more well-known simply because everyone knows both. It's like asking whether Titanic or Star Wars is more well-known.

Spider-Man is obviously more liked.

Hey now. I see his point, but I think its directed in the wrong end of the content. It only speaks to the quality of the movie, not the sway of the superhero/star. Like Groucho pointed out. Spiderman made alot both because he is popular, and because most people think Riami made a good film version. If the movies had been bad, it wouldn't have been fair to argue that Spiderman is less popular than Superman and that's why the movies made less (except maybe opening weekend). It would only be fair to say...the movie was bad.

In this case, no one is going to argue if Johnny Cash or Tina Turner are "more popular," only which movie was better made, or which movie appealed to a wider demographic, etc. I hate to say it, but even if the music-biopic on Turner was great (I haven't seen it), and she is famous, I can assure you the audiance was deeply gendered. Fact of the matter is women will go out to see a good biopic of a male celebrity or musician, but men are less likely to turn out in droves to watch one about a woman. Same with good female oriented sports, which still appeal mostly to women (and families) and same with high quality romance movies. Same thing with race oriented musicians, which leads to some of this ridiculous (if noticing a trend) discussion about "urban" appeal. Putting Johnny and June in their guarantees appeal that crosses (conservative) sex barriers. Making an uplifting story rather than a down-trodden one, including a romance but also including some gritty drugs and guns, and rebel, etc, and playing up his country and rural upbringing, + his politics, means no one is cart blache discluded from the demographic appeal. That means, if the movie is well done there's no reason someone would be inherantly turned off by it. It still depends on if its well done. Something I'm starting to worry about when I hear what timeline the story is restricted to.

The Hulk would be a good example of a character who is just as well known by image as Spidey or Superman, but who's film suffered because of it not looking as good initially or because of WOM not supporting it once people did see it.



Don't worry about the timeline. (1955-1968, I think) Those are Cash's most important years, and very similar to how the story of Lorreta Lynn was told, so it should be great.

I have no idea why men won't support movies about females. Coal Miner's Daughter was obviously supported by men, but as a rule, we don't do it, yet females never have a problem supporting male biopics or male centric films. I was just talking about that with my best friend last night, as I was recommending Mean Girls to him, and he feels the same as I do, he doesn't care if the movie is about girls or guys, he only cares that it's good. It's very unfortunately that a great film like In Her Shoes turned off the male demographic by getting looked at like a chick flick instead of a good film. Roger Ebert commented on Ebert and Roeper today about that and said the same thing.

Luckily for Walk the Line, it won't have to deal with that problem. Ray was supported fine enough by women, and it didn't even have a viable female lead to support, and I really think the Reese factor is what's being underestimated here (as the guys here always disregard the female audience for some reason, just because it's not the demo they belong to), as she is going to pull in lots of women for this film. The man in black is cool, so that alone will grab the guys, and the fact that women don't refuse to go to movies where males are the title characters, and the uber popular Reese Witherspoon, who is HUGE with females is being talked up as a scene stealing Oscar win of the future is in this film, will ensure 100 million at the domestic box office.

My say:

1) Walk the Line will not open to $35 million.

2) Walk the Line will open with a totally respectable number around $20M and have awards and good legs carry it to the tune of $100M or so.

3) Walk the Line doesn't *have* to attract teens to be successful. How many teens flocked to see The Aviator, Sideways or Million Dollar Baby last/this year?

4) Walk the Line is counterprogramming for adults. Zingy, I'm not trying to come across like I'm better than you. I just feel you don't look at things from a perspective other than your own during certain times, and this is one of them.

Finally some reasonable comments here (even though I disagree with the second of course).

By the way, I saw The Aviator, Sideways and M$B all in theatres and I'm a teen too

My current position, by the way, is that Walk the Line will open to $15-16 million and finish a bit below $70 million.

There have actually been MANY reasonable comments here, especially the comments about how you aren't the best qualified to determine Cash's popularity in the states. That's not an insult. I wouldn't be qualified to know how popular German icons are.

Exactly. On paper, this movie is not a "turn-off" to any demographic. In addition, it has special appeal to groups that are not usually specifically marketted to or targetted (until recently). The only qualifier still left is the actually quality of the movie. I've heard nothing from critics that would lead me to believe it has shotty performances, directing, or has cut corners, etc. As far as box office, I see its opening being affected heavily by Potter, but I do not see its legs suffering, as there aren't many other movies being released afterwards that detract from its audiances. Brokeback Mountain is too small, and its contents will turn off alot of people (especially particular audiances that would love some of the themes in Cash's biopic). Geisha is the only immediate challenge, and not only is it three or four weeks later in release, there are many people that are still under the impression its subtitled..which goes to show you how weak its promotion in the States is right now.

dolce, I definitely agree that this isn't a film that is a turn off to anyone. Maybe to urban audiences, but not with mainstream cinema audiences. The appeal is there. All bases are covered.

Who is going to be the 20th member to the over 100 million club? I recall Lecter saying we wouldn't be able to get 5? Again, he said that without knowing how big Johnny Cash was here. I have no idea why The Dark Shape doesn't know, but I'd be pretty embarrassed to admit that, because it sounds like he's lived in a bubble or something. ScottV would never look at him the same if that were true. (sorry, Scott)

The 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Maverikk
2. dolcevita
3. Libs
4. Killuminati510
5. BJ
6. MovieDude
7. newfoundglorysp
8. the man from fran...ce
9. insein-darko
10. rusty
11. Maximus
12. Flava'd?
13. Moolah
14. jb007
15. nghtvsn
16. Squee
17. thompsoncory
18. Mr. X
19. andaroo

The Under 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Zingaling
2. Dr. Lecter
3. Shack
4. matatonio
5. revolutions
6. bABA
7. Animosity Reigns
8. Lucky
9. DP07
10. The Dark Shape