you are forgetting that it is almost doubling it's number of theatres though!!!

Huh? You were saying that this past weekend was deflated, I said it was not.

I still don't agree with that... Sunday might have been somewhat inflated, but not enough to even out the huge deflation of Saturdays numbers..
So I do think that it's numbers were deflated somewhat... and then I just added on that it is also almost doubling it's theatre count. at 3.7 million last weekend, I don't see how 5 million in almost twice as many theatres is a stretch, especially if you look at the strong numbers it's pulling during the weekdays...

First off the deflation was not huge. It would not have had 1.6m-1.7m on Sat. Increases on Sat tend not to be great during the holidays since the Friday numbers are higher then usual. The LOTR films, which were big Saturday movies except during the holidays, increased no more then 11.4% (FOTR) on their second Saturdays. BB would have earned about 1.3m-1.4m if not for the NYE effect. Furthermore, the Friday and Sunday numbers were certainly inflated. If anything this past weekend was somewhat inflated overall. Finally, if what you claim were true we would have seen unusually good holds in 1994 when the calendar was the same. That was not the case, so there is nothing to back it up.



So far it has not been expanding that well. It's hard to make comparisions to Christmas weekend, but from two weeks earlier it had a holiday boost like every movie. The drops from two weeks earlier for most other films were minor. At the worst BB would have had a weekend of 1.8m even if in only 69 theaters (probably over 2m). Instead the increase in theaters of almost 300% took it to 3.6m. It would obviously drop this weekend without an expansion, so, how will an increase of 100% in the TC give it an increase of nearly 40% in the gross?

Its dailies are too strong to be ignored, though...

My weekend prediction - $4.3 million

How would an increase in TC of almost 100% increase it's gross by 40%? Um... because it is increasing it's theatre count by almost 100%! It's per theatre avg. is certainly going to drop, but that's to be expected. It grossed 3.7 million last weekend (and I still don't agree the weekend was inflated because Saturdays numbers were so deflated.... and comparing a film like this to a film like The Lord of the Rings is riduiculas. Firstly, BBM is not making over 10 million a day, and secondly, it's a completely different audience...). There is no reason to believe that it's going to drop hard in the theatres it was playing last weekend, especially with it all over the press this week again with all the Guild nominations, combined with the fact that it's ad campagin has started which will raise awareness, along with the fact that WOM is starting to kick in.

Now, I never said that 5 million is a certainty, I think 4.5 million is more likely. But 5 million is certainly not impossible, as you say...

And I agree with Lecter. It's strong mid-day numbers can't be ignored...

Just an FYI, Box Office Prophets is predicting 7 million for the weekend for Brokeback, along with 7 million for the weekend for Munich, in 3 times as many theatres... now there is something that is impossible!!!

"Wider openings this weekend include Munich, which moves to 1,485 screens, Casanova, breaking the 1,000 mark after a limited run over the holidays, Brokeback Mountain, expanding to 484 screens, and Match Point, Woody Allen's latest, moving up to 304 screens. Munich and Brokeback both sit at around $15 million total to this point, with the latter doing so largely on the back of much Guild and award recognition. A wave of critical support is starting to lift this picture not only into an almost assured slot at the Academy Awards, but also into commercial respectability. With these factors in play, it should be able to bring in about $7 million this weekend. Munich, meanwhile, is receiving slightly less support from the end-of-year awards, with a couple of Golden Globe nominations and some guild support show so far. Spielberg's opus on terrorism might be a little more accessible to audiences, but it's proving to be just as tough a sell. It should also come in with around $7 million for the weekend."

ya, that's kind of extreme. There's no way Brokeback can nearly double its theatre count and keep the same or increase its PTA. I'd like to see it do it, but it's almost impossible. Well, we'll see in a few hours!

I'd love to see that, but it seems highly unlikely..

I still think it'll get around 5 million, which is great.

Box Office Prophets are the worst online predictors in existance, heh.

Friday:

9. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN FOCUS FEATURES 484 1,746,000 3,607 18,452,000

Excellent.

Anyone else think it'll go wide next weekend? The final theater count has always been higher then the estimate, and it is MLK weekend...

I think they'll stick with 100-200 more a week and go over 1000 the Friday after the nomination announcement.

I agree. They're doing the anti-Kung Fu Hustle style. They're holding BBM in its starting blocks so long, and its apparently working. Maybe Good Night and Good Luck could have tried the same route? The minute GN hit 800 theatres it began its descent, so something tells me BBM is waiting as long as possible to work up to that point. I see another another 200 or so next weekend.

But they'd be silly to hold it too long, because the pta on this film will eventually drop, and they want to ride the expansion while there is still so much buzz.

It looks like a near 10,000 pta for this weekend, despite a doubling expansion and the fact its been out for over a month. Not bad at all!

FINALLY Focus is doing something right, expansion-wise.

Utah theater pulled Brokeback Mountain.

fewls it could have made big BO $$$$ for them

Heh. After the Utah Film Critics unanimously (and surprisingly) showers Brokeback some love, then this!!!

However, Brown said Friday that Miller was unaware of the storyline of "Brokeback Mountain" - about two Wyoming cowboys who maintain a hidden romance for two decades - until Brown described it to him Thursday, less than two hours before the schedule change was announced.
Other new movies with R-rated content - such as the marijuana-fueled comedy "Grandma's Boy" and the grisly horror movie "Hostel" - opened on schedule at the MegaPlex 17.

Yep, sounds like homophobia to me.

They don't want to show a film with two men in a gay relationship, but a film with heavy marijuana use and another film with heavy horror imagery are just fine and opened as scheduled. *insert roll-eye smiley*

Oh well, it's their loss. The film is making a killing in theatres.

PEACE, Mike.

Indeed they are fewls

This will have already made 25 million before ever expanding above 500 theatres.. that is pretty amazing in this day and age.

It will still have a 10 000+ avg for the weekend, and will certaily outshine Munich (which I saw last night. Good movie, not Oscar calibre though)

If it can hold stready in the theatres it's playing, and increase it's count by another 200+ next weekend, it could make 7 million + over the long weekend... from there, the globes and Oscars should carry it to who knows where....

If it keeps at it's current pace, I predict it will be around 45-50 million going into February...that should help it out nicely for the oscar noms and the month of Feb. and bring it that much more closer to a possible 100 million + gross... fantastic!

So, DP07, what about that total of $37 million if it wins Best Picture?

I would say $50 million is a lock and $65 million is likely, but $85+ million can only happen with a BP win.

5.75 million for the weekend, up 59%. A total of 22.5 million.

It's going to be a long ride to the Oscars.. anything can happen...
I think this weekend's gross should show that this flick has a more broad appeal than many people on this board are giving it. It added approx. 70 new markets this weekend and still maintained an average of 12 000$

according to Showbiz data's Saturday numbers, this is how the weekend played out

Friday: 1.7
Sat. 2.4
Sun. 1.7

that's very strong.. it could pull in some strong weekday numbers again this weekend and do great over the 4 day weekend next weekend... 7 million + is a possibility now...

http://boxofficemojo.com/schedule/

says it's expanding to 700+ theaters on Tuesday(?).

The tuesday is for the DVD releases listed beside... it expands to 700+ theatres on Friday... should be interesting!

a 10 000$ avg over the 4 days would give it 7 million... I think it can manage that, considering it got 12 000$ avg over just three days this weekend...