The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release)
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yearsago
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Empire has a 5 star review online: Quote: However, if you can wrap a pair of 3D glasses round your peepers, this becomes a transcendent, full-on five-star experience that's the closest we'll ever come to setting foot on a strange new world. Just don’t leave it so long next time, eh, Jim?
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 1:39 am |
 
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yearsago
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:20 pm
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Location: seattle
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Sam Rubin from KLTA says Avatar will get oscar noms: Quote: London --- Just left the 'World Premiere' of "Avatar," and while the standing ovation the film received at its conclusion is probably just the requisite politeness; I can report that this is another rare example where the quality of the movie does indeed exceed the hype and "Avatar" will most certainly be among the 10 'Best Picture' nominees for the Oscars; and James Cameron will also be a Best Director nominee.
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 1:52 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread LadiesMan217 wrote: Awesome news. There are some negative reviews out there that I won't post. FUCK THEM.Anyways bad news is that Avatar theatre count is 3300+   http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/cha ... =51&p=.htmWTF? Fox really sucks. They probably want A&C2 to get more theatres than Avatar. I would have thought that estimated count would be 3900+ but this sucks. Ugh. lower those opening weekend prediction guys _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 6:10 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread DELLAMORTE DOES BOX OFFICE 12/11/09
By Andre Dellamorte Published Yesterday News
Man is born merely to die.
SEVEN DAYS AND COUNTING
Okay, so Avatar reviews are starting to come in, after some very cutsey Twitter responses from a number of people who have seen the film, ranging from the famous to the famous Internet types, including Chud's own Nick Nunziata. Word is - wait for it - great. No one has yet splashed the film with any amount of cold water, and though the Variety review notes that the film's scripting is a tad on the simplistic side, and suggests that the conclusion is a tad forced, the rest of the review raves about the technology and the visceral action. So far that is the most negative review on the market.
There will undoubtedly be a backlash on the Internet and a number of negative reviews (this ain't no Hayao Miyazaki film), but the Internet - especially among the movie-fan nerd-town is a shockingly insular and thoroughly unrespectable market. There are few films to speak of that were driven solely by Internet interest, even as old media crumbles. David Poland has talked about the geek eight (a film that markets to the geeks but has no outward support can open to that), but - ultimately - you can't say that that number is all geeks all the time. Films have advertising, and eight may be the bottom line for a certain type of film, but by no means is there a true sense of the population of ticket buyers for anything, except in the case of a blockbuster, which generally requires more than one facet of humanity. The Dark Knight may have been a film for a certain set of boys, but it didn't make that money just cause. And though it's often said that Twilight is a girl thing, many a man must have gone to a see a film that does over $200 Million, if only for the often repeated canard that sometimes "film nights" are a bargaining chip for sexual favors. Anecdotal evidence suggests this is not that uncommon, though that may just be an excuse.
Avatar has one thing in its favor at the moment, in that it gets an opening weekend, and then a four day weekend with Christmas, and then another four day with New Years. Where the film likely has an opening weekend ceiling of a hundred (and no one is predicting that much anywhere as of now, $60 Million was being thrown around and $80 was being speculated), if it can maintain a light drop off for those two weekends, it could be getting as high as 250-$300 by the end of the year. That's the good news (if it is as good as word suggests), though that is being exceptionally generous.
The problem is attention spans, and audience interest. Fanboys dedicated themselves to The Dark Knight pre-release for reasons best left to clinicians. Currently Sherlock Holmes is tracking stronger, and has a wider appeal. With an extra week to go. Action films - outside of something like Taken - have steady regular drops - especially event films which are partly built on opening weekends. As I've said here, if Avatar doesn't open to a hundred, the odds of it getting to $400 Million becomes increasingly unlikely. The one thing it has going for it is the 3-D screen action, to which it doesn't have a direct competitor until Alice in Wonderland in March. But where Titanic could play long because the early months in 1998 were weak, here there is direct competition every other week, and most importantly Holmes. That's not to say the two can't live with each other, but just the same.
When I started this column, I suggested I will always be wrong, and I will always be wrong, but I tend to be wrong in a consistent manner. I have no rooting interest in box office, other than I want filmmakers I like to do well and filmmakers I don't to do poorly, but Adam Shankman and Shawn Levy will probably always be more successful than most of the great filmmakers of our age. When I make predictions, when I talk about this stuff, I am working off the memory and the stats of how things have done in the past. I try to find the closest parallel to a number of films and make guestimates based on that mixed with the current tracking and the wind (and then I look at the moon and tides and sigh, but that's just me). The heat is turning up on the film in some ways, but print and Internet media excitement has to translate, and it doesn't always. I keep seeing The New World charting as one of the best films of the 00's, but what I don't see is a lot of love for Revenge of the Sith, The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe or King Kong (not to mention Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire). All five of which received mixed to positive (mostly the latter) at the time. People will always love all five, but only one is ascending to classic status, partly because critics can decree some things, but mostly in the history books. I constantly make this point because people often conflate quality with box office (not necessarily you, my learned and awesome readers), but also because much of the negative buzz on Avatar was addressed around the shitty marketing (which is inarguable) and the expense (also inarguable), which puts the film in a corner for being profitable, because if the film cost half a billion dollars, then it ever being profitable lives on a wing and a prayer of being one of the biggest films of all time. Of course, that was the case with Titanic, but rarely do filmmakers catch lightning in a bottle twice in a row.
Will see, but I still don't think this movie is going to make a whole lot that will cause people to scratch their heads as to WHY???
_________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 6:22 am |
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mark66
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread MR. GREEN wrote: Will see, but I still don't think this movie is going to make a whole lot that will cause people to scratch their heads as to WHY??? And all that SHERLOCK HOLMES competion doesn't mean anything. Remember last year? We had four movies opening Christmas Day and they took in $51m (MARLEY & ME), $39m (BENJAMIN BUTTON), $38m (BEDTIME STORIES) and $30m (VALKYRIE) over the first four days. Christmas can handle many successful movies at the same time...
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 6:46 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread mark66 wrote: MR. GREEN wrote: Will see, but I still don't think this movie is going to make a whole lot that will cause people to scratch their heads as to WHY??? And all that SHERLOCK HOLMES competion doesn't mean anything. Remember last year? We had four movies opening Christmas Day and they took in $51m (MARLEY & ME), $39m (BENJAMIN BUTTON), $38m (BEDTIME STORIES) and $30m (VALKYRIE) over the first four days. Christmas can handle many successful movies at the same time... _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 11:32 am |
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mark66
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread MR. GREEN wrote: This is going to be one of these deal breakers where a movie gets all these outstanding to very good reviews and no one ends up seeing the movie.. This has happened more often than you think Tell me, which super expensive movie with incredibly good reviews and released into more than 3,000 theaters was seen by no one? - I really want to know...
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:02 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread mark66 wrote: MR. GREEN wrote: This is going to be one of these deal breakers where a movie gets all these outstanding to very good reviews and no one ends up seeing the movie.. This has happened more often than you think Tell me, which super expensive movie with incredibly good reviews and released into more than 3,000 theaters was seen by no one? - I really want to know... _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:21 pm |
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mark66
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread WATERWORLD was trashed by critics - I asked you to name one with good reviews...
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:23 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread mark66 wrote: WATERWORLD was trashed by critics - I asked you to name one with good reviews... _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:27 pm |
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mark66
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread You're the one who's spinning.
I specifically asked you for one movie which fits AVATAR's three criterias:
1) super expensive
2) rave reviews
3) release in 3,000 theaters (I'm gonna help you here, I'm satisfied with let's say 1,800 theaters)
So far, you still haven't found one, even though you say This has happened more often than you think
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:29 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread mark66 wrote: You're the one who's spinning.
I specifically asked you for one movie which fits AVATAR's three criterias:
1) super expensive
2) rave reviews
3) release in 3,000 theaters (I'm gonna help you here, I'm satisfied with let's say 1,800 theaters)
So far, you still haven't found one, even though you say This has happened more often than you think  _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:35 pm |
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mark66
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Okay, I see...
First you claim something without proof.
Than I ask you to prove it.
Than you can't prove it and now it is all my fault and you're through with me?
I'd like to bolden this especially for you (one of my favorite quotes of 2009):
Trying to have a conversation with you would be like trying to argue with a dining room table.
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:40 pm |
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SolC9
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread That list is the weakest argument I've ever seen. Every movie on that list is a small film
with low marketing and budget, except for The Terminal. And that made 78M dom and 219M WW
on a 60M budget.
Avatar will open to at least 50M, and end up with at least 200M (at a very very minimum) Dom.
Those minimums would prevent it from being an "epic fail" considering international grosses.
More than likely though, this film will do much better. The WOM gets rolling opening weekend, then explodes over the end of the month with the holidays. It could clear 250M by the end of the year if it can draw a family and/or female audience in addition to it's obvious young male/sci fi target.
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:55 pm |
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mark66
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Don't even bother - he's comparing AVATAR to movies like Woody Allen's MIGHTY APHRODITE on this list...
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 1:03 pm |
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Price
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread mark66 wrote: Trying to have a conversation with you would be like trying to argue with a dining room table. I think that even the dining room table is able to process information. _________________
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 1:41 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread  Bkbizzle is just messing with you guys. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:03 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread David Poland expects Avatar to make over $450M in the US and $750M worldwide to become the second highest-grossing movie ever made behind Cameron's other movie: http://www.thehotblog.com/
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 3:51 pm |
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xiayun
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Magnus wrote: If it makes 450m domestically, it's making a hell lot more than just 750m WW. More like $1.B+. His WW means international, excluding U.S, since he said he expect its total (1.1b+) to be the second highest all-time. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Fri Dec 11, 2009 6:03 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Magnus wrote: Ah.
Well, he's still insane. The film isn't going to do that well even though it will do well. _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Sat Dec 12, 2009 5:18 am |
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biu remarstered
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread MR. GREEN wrote: Magnus wrote: Ah.
Well, he's still insane. The film isn't going to do that well even though it will do well. You said the same about TDK 
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| Sat Dec 12, 2009 9:28 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread biu remarstered wrote: MR. GREEN wrote: Magnus wrote: Ah.
Well, he's still insane. The film isn't going to do that well even though it will do well. You said the same about TDK  _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Sat Dec 12, 2009 11:08 am |
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Price
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread So BKB, just predict a number. What will Avatar's domestic total be?
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| Sat Dec 12, 2009 12:13 pm |
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Telemachos
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread What about midnights?
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| Sat Dec 12, 2009 3:40 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Price wrote: So BKB, just predict a number. What will Avatar's domestic total be? _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Sun Dec 13, 2009 1:48 am |
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