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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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this will be big but please stop over estimating it. im so sick of dissapointment.
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| Sun May 14, 2006 9:00 pm |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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excel wrote: this will be big but please stop over estimating it. im so sick of dissapointment. After Poseidon, I bet you are.  _________________
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| Sun May 14, 2006 9:20 pm |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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For an adult oriented thriller, I must say the hype and the teen appeal (My schoolmates have been talking about it) is very amazing. I see a big OW because of those factors and great legs.
Opening Weekend: $78 million
Total: $283 million
Multiplier: 3.6
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| Sun May 14, 2006 9:22 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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excel wrote: this will be big but please stop over estimating it. im so sick of dissapointment. I think you'll be disappointed on July 1.
We're not in for a disappointment here, though. You can't ignore the massive buzz The Da Vinci Code has generated. With an all-star cast, a great director, a perfect release date (with no holdover competition), and record book sales... it'll be huge.
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| Sun May 14, 2006 9:50 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Eventine wrote: For an adult oriented thriller, I must say the hype and the teen appeal (My schoolmates have been talking about it) is very amazing. I see a big OW because of those factors and great legs.
That's indeed the most important thing. The Internet numbers are simply unheard of for a supposedly "adult-oriented" thriller. The numbers are indicating it has one of the biggest fanbases out there and can combine that with the adult factor. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sun May 14, 2006 9:53 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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This will be frontloaded.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun May 14, 2006 10:36 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Dr. Lecter wrote: This will be frontloaded. That's what I'm starting to think as well. No matter how good it is, it definitely looks like the bookreaders will be rushing out.
Opening: $89 million
Total: $215 million
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| Sun May 14, 2006 11:07 pm |
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Amer
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 10:35 pm
Posts: 1912
Location: Texas
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40 Million people bought the book in the US...If we assume each movie ticket is about 7 dollars, and all those people see it then that 280 Million, plus the people that didn't read...It will be huge.
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| Sun May 14, 2006 11:09 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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MG Casey wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: This will be frontloaded. That's what I'm starting to think as well. No matter how good it is, it definitely looks like the bookreaders will be rushing out. Opening: $89 million Total: $215 million With Memorial Day the weekend after, there's no way the legs are going to be that horrible. That's a multiplier of 2.4. There's no way it'll be that low. _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Sun May 14, 2006 11:10 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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I do think it'll be a little frontloaded, but I don't see a multiplier under 2.8. Memorial Day weekend will help a lot. I remember a lot of people saying that Sith would pull a ridiculously low multiplier, but even that didn't.
Opening Weekend: $71 million
Domestic Total: $234 million
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| Sun May 14, 2006 11:20 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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Sith had a 3.06 multiplier even without its $50 million opening day. That's pretty decent, considering how frontloaded it was.
Da Vinci won't have a multiplier lower than 2.9. Even though it'll be frontloaded, it's got Memorial Day and a lot of its fans aren't the types to rush out. There are so many fans, though, that it won't decrease the opening weekend.
For now I'm thinking 74/260, for a multiplier of about 3.5. God knows, though, that the opening weekend could be higher and the total will crack $300 million.
_________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict.
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| Sun May 14, 2006 11:55 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Variety reports 4,000 theaters this weekend.
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| Mon May 15, 2006 6:10 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Do you all think the running time is a significant factor? The film is long enough where a possible $100M OW also needs a ton of prints - not just a high theater count.
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| Mon May 15, 2006 7:25 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23250
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Im one of the ones predicting $85m+ opening weekend, but one thing that does interest me is how many people who have read it wont bother with the film becuase they know what is going to happen? The best thing about the book is that its a thriller and it keeps you turning the page to see what happens. Going into the film - most people will know what happens so that could effect enjoyment somewhat aswell as the long term prospects.
Still its going to be huge!
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| Mon May 15, 2006 8:08 am |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm
Posts: 11637
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I think it will open around 74 million and finish 255-280.
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| Mon May 15, 2006 12:39 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11028
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Julius Caesar wrote: 40 Million people bought the book in the US 20mill in the u.s and 40mill ww.
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| Mon May 15, 2006 1:36 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Ok, i give in to the hype (somewhat).
$75m / $250m
(up from $200m)
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| Mon May 15, 2006 7:09 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Positive Jon wrote: Opening: 76.4
Total: 271.2 (3.55) Nearly two months later, and nary a change in my prediction:
Opening: 78.5
Total: 272.9 (3.48)
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| Mon May 15, 2006 7:45 pm |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Posts: 16061
Location: The Damage Control Table
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Zingaling wrote: excel wrote: this will be big but please stop over estimating it. im so sick of dissapointment. I think you'll be disappointed on July 1. We're not in for a disappointment here, though. You can't ignore the massive buzz The Da Vinci Code has generated. With an all-star cast, a great director, a perfect release date (with no holdover competition), and record book sales... it'll be huge. Well, its not unrealistic. At 4000 theatres, it only needs a pta of 20,000 to pull in 80 million. That's not unreasonable. If one stretched it a bit towards 25,000 pta (not unheard of, but much harder) than 100 million isn't even out of reach. Much less likely though. I think it'll get 20,000 pta easy.
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| Mon May 15, 2006 8:21 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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 http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/fi ... 1002503115
Quote: 'Mission' holds as 'Da Vinci' hovers
With "The Da Vinci Code" standing by for a worldwide challenge this coming weekend, "Mission: Impossible III" kept up a sound holdover pace in the international market, taking in about $40.7 million from 6,940 locations in 57 territories. The 42% drop from its opening weekend is considered normal for a big wide release such as "Mission," said Andrew Cripps, president of UIP, the overseas distributor for Paramount, Universal and DreamWorks. "The film had great playability from existing holdovers," Cripps added, "and we expect continued growth because of great word-of-mouth and positive reviews." The two-weekend saturation exposure of the Tom Cruise thriller lifted the international cume to about $129.5 million. Industry pundits are eyeing with special interest this coming weekend's clash of the disparate wide-release blockbusters -- the action-packed "Mission" and the controversial religious mystery "The Da Vinci Code." Starting Wednesday, Tom Hanks starrer "Da Vinci Code" heads out with some 12,000 prints to 65 territories -- "everywhere but the Middle East," a Sony international distribution executive said. (Hy Hollinger)
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| Mon May 15, 2006 9:39 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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thats a record number of prints i think .
_________________The Dark Prince 
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| Mon May 15, 2006 10:56 pm |
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rolandka19
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 9:33 am
Posts: 1117
Location: Somewhere in the East Coast
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This will be HUGE.
Opening weekend: $82.2 million
Domestic total: $265.4 million
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| Mon May 15, 2006 11:00 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Zingaling wrote: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/film/brief_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002503115 Quote: 'Mission' holds as 'Da Vinci' hovers
With "The Da Vinci Code" standing by for a worldwide challenge this coming weekend, "Mission: Impossible III" kept up a sound holdover pace in the international market, taking in about $40.7 million from 6,940 locations in 57 territories. The 42% drop from its opening weekend is considered normal for a big wide release such as "Mission," said Andrew Cripps, president of UIP, the overseas distributor for Paramount, Universal and DreamWorks. "The film had great playability from existing holdovers," Cripps added, "and we expect continued growth because of great word-of-mouth and positive reviews." The two-weekend saturation exposure of the Tom Cruise thriller lifted the international cume to about $129.5 million. Industry pundits are eyeing with special interest this coming weekend's clash of the disparate wide-release blockbusters -- the action-packed "Mission" and the controversial religious mystery "The Da Vinci Code." Starting Wednesday, Tom Hanks starrer "Da Vinci Code" heads out with some 12,000 prints to 65 territories -- "everywhere but the Middle East," a Sony international distribution executive said. (Hy Hollinger) Well, they've been promoting it in the trailers as opening "May 19 Worldwide," so its not too surprising. We should be looking at one heel of a international opening. $100M+, anyone?
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| Mon May 15, 2006 11:06 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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MG Casey wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: This will be frontloaded. That's what I'm starting to think as well. No matter how good it is, it definitely looks like the bookreaders will be rushing out. Opening: $89 million Total: $215 million It won't be that frontloaded.
Both sides are somewhat right. It will have some legs as an adult thriller, but it will be frontloaded due to hype and the fans rushing out. So, I continue to think Bourne Supremacy will be a good comparision with a multiplier near 3.3. It doesn't have July weekdays, but it has Memorial day to more or less make the effect on the mult. even.
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| Tue May 16, 2006 7:29 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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DP07 wrote: MG Casey wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: This will be frontloaded. That's what I'm starting to think as well. No matter how good it is, it definitely looks like the bookreaders will be rushing out. Opening: $89 million Total: $215 million It won't be that frontloaded. Both sides are somewhat right. It will have some legs as an adult thriller, but it will be frontloaded due to hype and the fans rushing out. So, I continue to think Bourne Supremacy will be a good comparision with a multiplier near 3.3. It doesn't have July weekdays, but it has Memorial day to more or less make the effect on the mult. even. I start geting convinced on the huge opening, but with such an opening, I really am starting to doubt those legs... I think maybe a round multiplier of 3. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Tue May 16, 2006 2:01 pm |
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