then how can you possibly predict x3? or davinci code? or casino royale? tell me. people do it every day and you saying its wrong?

look at myexmapleabove with harry potter four. you HAVE toguess somewhat asto how itll be markted if youeven wanna try andbe remotly accurate to its box office opening and total,you know that. batmanbegins had way moremarkting thenstar warsepisode one prior tomarch 26th,but i didnt see anyone saying batman would top star wars, did you?

X3 has ALOT of hype because of the pics that they are releasing, the previous films, and the teaser

We predict based on that, not what we think will happen with it

We predict Da Vinci Code based on the book and the movie hype, the controversy behind the book and the TRAILER

We predict Casino Royale based on the previous films and the new bond effect

Not what we think will happen

Listen excel if this was two years ago or whatever when there was no footage of Superman, you just predict based on nothing then yeah it would make sense, but atleast we have something to judge the movie on right now.

You gotta read my post again my man, I said YOU think that the special effects will be incredible and everyone will see the movie because of them, yet there is absolutely no sign of anything special let alone the effects in this movie. Again the movie hasnt shown any type of action or flair or sometihng that would make your jaw drop, so far there has been NOTHING special shown in this movie.

Again once a full trailer comes out and we get more of an idea about the movie then we might have another story, but for now there has been nothing shown that this movie can do 300m+ When someone predicts a movie to do 300m+ they gotta have a mighty good argument as to why this can happen. This isnt just some movie we're predicting that might go for 50m total or 60m total this is a whole different ball park.

Why the hell use Harry Potter as an example? Harry Potter already had it's fanbase sold, it's a huge well established movie franchise, Superman isnt. End of story.

so you say:

-previous films
-famous
-being new

are two reasons to think a film could have mega success cause all those film spredicts are sky high.

well supermans got to extremely popular old films. hes easily themost famous superhero. it looks very new compared to the old ones.

if yousay that, why do people like kilumati say his name means nothing. or that big intrnet buzz means nothing.

cause all x3 hasis internet buzz. its buzz online is very very high, butitspublic buzzisnt, hence whysuperman returns beat itin the most searched movie of febuary on yahoo.

you say these reasons like being famous, being new, and having belovdprevious filmsare good enough to use for other films predictions but you and kilumati says their not good enough for superman.

why?

read my other posts.

the malaysan press viewed this films climax and all they said washow much in "Awe" they were at the fx.

or the films 100 million dollar speciall effects budge. when their spending that much, expecting spectacular fx is going to happen.

in reguards to harry potter, thats what you dont get. superman got a HUGE ESTABLISHED fanbase because-like people havesaid amillion tims-ITS SUPERMAN. And it seems the people who get hoow big he is, how huge his presold fanbase is, are the ones with huge predicts while the ones who look at him like just another hero, dont see too big a numbers.

the world doesnt look at him like just another hero, and thats why they wont look at this as just some other movie.

Here's what I think...

excel, I think it takes a lot to call Killuminati biased when it's obviously you that is biased as well. Case closed on that. In addition, excel, are you working for WB? Do you know what WB will show in their trailer for Superman Returns? How can you even suggest that "so and so" will happen? See, at least a few of us are throwing out the possibilities. I've said numerous times in this thread that if the trailer is excellent (and nothing like the teaser), it'll do very well. You can't deny that. You? You're not even considering that a lackluster trailer is possible. You insist that WB will have this and that in the trailer, but unless this trailer has already been made, you're on the WB staff, and you have already seen this trailer, you have no evidence whatsoever that Superman Returns will have a trailer and marketing filled with action-packed scenes that'll attract masses this summer. For all we know, the trailer will turn out like Batman Begins' trailer did - boring, action-less, and a film many people wouldn't rush to see. And that's what happened. And if it wasn't as good as it was? It wouldn't have crossed $140 million total off of an opening weekend like $48 million and we all know that.

You continuously bring in the budget into the mix. Who's denying that the film won't have good special effects? But, guess what? If people aren't attracted by a solid, visually impressive trailer, the film will not attract many outside of the fanbase.

The biggest flaw in your entire arguement is that you think you know every single detail about what WB plans to do with the marketing of the film (as in, what scenes will be featured in the commercials, trailers, etc.), you think you know that every single fan of Superman will be in line for this on opening weekend, and more. You're assuming that everything will happen. And, you're assuming that just because Superman was a popular superhero decades ago, that same mind-frame still exists today. But do you have evidence? No. You have arguements about how Superman toys sell well and how a few kids like to go trick-or-treating as him.

And, you have also ignored the fact that it's opening on the weekend before Independence Day, and that it'll have a long weekend to make money. $90 million is not a lock. Is it a possibility? Sure. It's not a lock, though. And it's rather niave of someone to think that it is guaranteed to make $90 million in the first three days of release when Monday and Tuesday are both national holidays (meaning that business will spill over onto the holidays - not everyone has to see it over the three-day weekend). And, there's only been one comic book adaptation to open to over $90 million. And, you know what? Most didn't see it coming until a few weeks before release, when marketing was in full force, buzz was off the charts, and more. By then, we had already seen a great trailer for Spider-Man, we've seen the marketing, and we can make an accurate prediction of what'll happen. For now, we can only think of possibilities, not guarantees. Until you realize that, I don't think anyone can take you seriously over here.

Correction... Superman USED to be HUGE... now he's just thrown in the superhero crowd.

While he still is my fave

There is absolutely NO basis to predict Superman so high. The teaser was not good, despite ALOT of marketing already for it there is NOTHING that we have seen that is impressive. Oh, and a couple of the last Superman movies sucked

As I have mentioned time and time again. You are putting Superman's calibur in almost the same vein as Star Wars. Superman while being a popular name isnt that popular when it comes to movies, Ive already sho0wn you that Superman 1's gross looks alot like peanuts when compared to SWs. Now if you are basing it on the 17 year gap between the last Superman and the newest Superman, it already has a been there done that feel to it and it isnt a new genre ground breaking new never before done movie like Spiderman was, Superman has already been done

Now lets just say I would almost use the same ground figure of anticipation of say Phantom Menace 17 gap between Return of the Jedi, the figures still show Phantom Menace lagging behind Return of the Jedi's 660 million inflated gross and far behind New Hopes 1 billion figure. Now Superman isnt anywhere near the calibur of Superman so I cant see it coming anywhere close to Superman 1's inflated 360 figure



Are you saying a yahoo movie search isnt part of internet buzz? BTW Ive seen a few times where Superman and X-3 have traded places on most movie searches with one another, in fact right now X-3 has traded places with Superman Returns o0n imdb trailer search.

http://imdb.com/Sections/Trailers/
Now what you are saying is that X-3 is only about internet buzz while Superman's buzz which you base on a search engine of almost the same calibur is general buzz for it instead?



Again you are using your biasness without even seeing any money shots for the movie to base your prediction on. As I have shown Superman may be popular but how come in a time with less competition, it has lagged behind against the Spiderman and Batman movies which you have never answered fully. I would also add to Killumanti's argument that so far we have not seen any money shots for the movie when we normally we get money shot footage for movies before february time for tentpole summer movies. The pictures released so far for SR is just cast pictorials. Most of us also saw that movies like Happy Feet were getting better reactions than the SR teaser at the Harry Potter showings when supposedly SR is targetting the same audiences. Its not like we are just basing general audience demand out of our asses

Look here we are not saying SR will bomb big time, we just dont see any indication that it would reach 300 million, 200 million or WOTW numbers arent out of the question. I think you are assuming 350 million because of the Superman fanatics spamming the BOM forums. In comparison, you and Excel seem alot more reasonable and levelheaded than most of the BOM posters' predictions there for SR

I still don't see a lot of kids flocking to this film. The teaser sure didn't seem to be aiming at the kids. No, it was aiming at the fanboys and those who'd seen the old films by recycling a narrative from one of the films. And the shots in the teaser did not do anything to try to invoke the "Oo! ACTION!" reaction in kids...

In all honesty, seeing the teaser I just kept feeling "seen it before"; I've never seen the old films (but I plan to), but I used to watch Lois & Clark religiously, and that really wasn't that long ago. I've also watched one or two eps of Smallville and found it fun, interesting, and fascinating. But with the SR teaser, I feel as though there is nothing new or exciting about the movie.

Plus, that whole angle that makes kind of a Messiah feel to it just felt WAY contrived and stupid to me (and my dad and many others in the theater with me).

We got far great reaction to Happy Feet than SR. And Happy Feet was a year away at the time its teaser was released.

Joy

everyone will go see SR. kids,teens,adults,oldfarts,dogs,cats,terrorist,the queen.....EVERYONE!

t-minus 117 days

no i dont work for w.b., but i follow this film a lot closer then most. i dont know for a fact that theyll put money shots in the finaltrailer, but id say its a very safe guess to say they will. the money shots are there, ive seen some in previsualization. this film has over 2000 special effects shots, 600 more then king kong. but the running time as of right now is 146 minutes and is still being trimmed.

also, most forget has bryan singer as a director and jon peters as a prodocuer.

while singers an incredibly talented director, most forget he was solely responsible forxmen 1's marketing and x2's trailers. now he seems to be bringing his "one huge push" idea to superman and i think itll help build huge hype cause that plans amazinly for this sort of film. its worked great for films like spiderman, attack of the clones,

while jon peters probably the least talented guy in the industry, he knows how to hype big movies, especially to the younger crowd. Given the amazingly large amount of toys and merchandise this filmhaslinedup to be released may 2nd,im sure alot of kids will have discovered those toys and liked them and this will hype well.

plus this is SUPERMAN. Much like just showing a simple clip of spiderman swinging in a trailer was "amazing" all w.b.has to do is pick 10-15 of the 700 shots of superman flying,and put them in the trailer. like spiderman or star wars,if w.b. gives it the right feel, superman theatrical trailer will be easy to knock out of the park, because theres so manythings to show off.

what im saying is, supermans marketing wont be that hard to make really big, thats why i think its asafe bet to includehow you think itl be marketed in its predictions.the teaser trailer was just a teaser. ifthe theatrical is just as slow then ill lower my predictions

i do agree that they needtolose the messiah feel, it felt stupid.

but its superman.

while spidermansis very verypopular with the 6-10 crowd,ithink supermans appeal lies in the 4-9 crowd.

And you're calling our excuses lame, excel?

"But it's Superman!" is one of the weakest justification of any prediction I've ever seen.

You still havent replied to my question. I have said if Superman was so popular why is it that Superman 2 has not passed 300 million and in the worst case scenorio where 3 & 4 went below 130 million. The argument of "just because its Superman" doesnt apply anymore since I have shown it to be flawed. It doesnt help too if you open up the HP crowd report in this thread and it shows Happy Feet getting better reaction than SR

I would argue for now SR will make a maximum of WOTW's number for now until something in the trailer impresses most people. Ill be right then just like how I saw Kong was overpredicted big time, I would be right again with Simpsons making less than 150 millio0n

No, you are obsessed.


If "you've seen" some previsualization, then you've seen them on the 'net. You should be able to link to them.


Superman Returns has 1500-2000 effects shots, King Kong had 2500. Not that that matters either way, they are incredibly different films.


Most of the general public doesn't know who Brian Singer is and Jon Peters, while he has produced some successful and memorable films, like all producers, has produced some shit. Nobody is going to run around saying "OMG JON PETERS PRODUCED THIS MOVIE"... he's not Jerry Brukheimer (who despite being probably the most well known producers, can't sell a movie on his name alone).


I think a lot of people would disagree with this. He's handled the X-Men series decently well and other than that has done one other movie. His style is generic, although he handles actors well. There are many, many more talented directors out there.


The marketing on both of those movies was terrible. X2 had really poor marketing.


How does this differ from any generic summer blockbuster?


Yes with films like Ali, Wild Wild West, Rosewood, My Fellow Americans, Money Train... It's been 14 years since Batman Returns.


Jon Peters is a producer of a film, he's not the Warner marketing department.


To who? In all honesty the only thing that people were interested in was just WHO was that guy who was playing Superman and it wasn't necessarily all positive comments.


No, I agree with this... it might be hard to make it GOOD but that's another issue.

not really, you just know what i meant. Supes has always been a kids fave, so wheni say its superman, imean its supermanand hsalwaysbeen popular with kids so i dont see whytheywouldnt see his movie.

"You still havent replied to my question. I have said if Superman was so popular why is it that Superman 2 has not passed 300 million and in the worst case scenorio where 3 & 4 went below 130 million. The argument of "just because its Superman" doesnt apply anymore since I have shown it to be flawed. It doesnt help too if you open up the HP crowd report in this thread and it shows Happy Feet getting better reaction than SR

I would argue for now SR will make a maximum of WOTW's number for now until something in the trailer impresses most people. Ill be right then just like how I saw Kong was overpredicted big time, I would be right again with Simpsons making less than 150 million"

superman opened against raiders of the lost arc which made 242 million in 1981. in that respect,its lucky to have made the 107 it did.

superman 3 was essentially batman& robin of the franchise.nobody liiked it. superman 4was soooo low because nobody liked number 3. itd be like making a batman 5 fromshumacher with clooney dueforrelease in 1999 fter batman &robin bombed so badly.

So, Superman 4 was low because no one liked Superman 3?

Interesting comment, because that's not what happened with the Batman franchise. No one liked Batman & Robin (it was the lowest grossing of the franchise), and Batman Begins comes out and becomes the second highest grossing of the frachise.

If Superman 2 took a drop from the cultural phenom that was IJ 1, with the two week gap in their release dates, shouldn't one expect that the new Superman might get hurt by the huge cultural phenom that is POTC 2 in its 2nd weekend of release?

no.. look at this.if this is the theatrical trailer, i think most if not all would be very satisfied and it took me 5 minutyes to come up with.

The w.b. logo flashes...followed by the legendary logo....

(voice over)
did you find what you were looking for?

-OPen up with a shot staring out into space...we see the pod coming towards us, directly at the camera.fade to black.
-on screen text "every great story has a legend..."

(voice over)
that place is a grave yard.

-Shost of predestruction krypton and post destruction krypton
-on screen text "Every generation has a hero..."

(voiceover)
im all thats left.

-shots of the Kansas farm, the Metropolis skyline on a glorious day
-on screen text "every "Every hero has a return"

suddenly the camera flying-"supermans vision" extremely fast through down buildings while flying
-an airplane wing explodes-
the music beginss, the danger theme,
-chaos on an airplane
-superman flys by-grabs the wing
the main theme begins to play
-superman preforms heroic feets
-the world talks of his return
-superman does another feat
-perry white talks of superman
-shot of Martha Kent
-Martha-voiceover-"What about that girl you had me send post cars
-she says as we see a shot of lois hugging richard.
-shot of clark
clark-Lois?
- lois-"so lets start with the big question? where did you go?"
- superman flying in space
-lex luthor walks menacing through the meuseum.
-"the gods are little men in blue tighst who fly around. we shall see if hes a match"
-explosions rock a warehouse
-a huge boat crashes through a wave
-lois walking away" the world doesnt need a man of steel n neither do i.
-luthor-"from now on, all hell will be breaking loose".
-shots of martha, lois, jimmy, richard, white, all in distress.
-"Not if I have anything to say about"
-superman flys high really fast
-a huge explosion in midair
-on screen text -"on June 30th"
superman and lois embrace-
luthoir puncnhes superman
-superman picks up a car
-superman flys extremely fast just feet above the matropolis streets as explosions and building crumble behind
-on screen text-"its a bird"
-huge skuyscrappers shake from an earthquake
-a huge boat capsizes
-lois and superman in each others arms on the planet rooftop-peer over the side, and begin to FLY
-SUPERMAN FLYS UP AWAY FROM LOIS on the planet rooftop
-on screen text-"its a plane"
-the plane wings explodes
-luthor "so long"
-a huge tidal wave approaches a city
-superman pushes under the water
-luthor "superman"
CUT TO A HUGE SHOT OF THE SUPERMAN LOGO FOLLOWED BY THE WORDS RETURNS IN YELLOW LETTERS BELOW IT
-tHE MUSIC KICKS IN AGAIN
-SUPERMAN N LOIS FLY UP
-luthor looks pissed
-kryptonion rocks fly around fast
-Superman flys really fast from far away right into the camera cutting to
-lois's face looking up in the sky-"wow"
-on screen text-LOOK UP IN THE SKY THIS FOURTH OF JULY

thats true. but to most, batman begins was the summers best movie while to most superman 4 sucked.

plus, superman 4 was still in continuation to old franchise, batman wasnt. and superman 4 was 4 years after superman 3.begins was 8 years afterbatman & robin.

of course, thats why it doesnt even a shot at 400 million.

I'm a bit confused. What are you arguing exactly? For it to do $100 m, 200, 300 m total, or 50, 60,70,80,90,100 m opening, what exactly are you arguing? I'm a tad lost, and would rather not read through 14 pages.

Yeah, but don't you see the point? Look at Batman Begins' poor opening weekend. WB did not expect an opening weekend that low, but it happened. If it was just an "alright" movie, it wouldn't have topped $140 million total. But it was good. It generated excellent WOM. And it slowly, but surely, found its way to over $200 million total. If it was "alright," it would have barely outgrossed Batman & Robin.

That's something you can't determine yet. Quality. If the marketing isn't that good (WB screwed up Batman, I wouldn't be too shocked if they did the same for Superman), the film will depend on quality to make huge numbers. And sorry, but you can't already say "it'll have great WOM," because that's something you cannot determine so far in advance.

That and the special effects are gonna be incredible so people will go to the movie because of them have been his argument from the beginning and he has the nerve to bash our reasoning why it wont do 300m+

The only way that argument would've held any weight is if every other big superhero movie that came out did 300m+ aswell like X-Men and Batman. Those franchises are just as big as Superman and probably more liked since Superman has been out the picture for a LONG time. I've always said that if this is a very solid film and makes around 200m or so then the sequel could make 300m+, but I mean to say a movie franchise thats been dead for sooooo many years is gonna come back and take on another superhero movie that has already sold the audience because of how well the second movie was recieved and a HUGE monster of a movie like POTC2 AND come out on top is kinda pushing it i'd say.

i say its word of mouth will be good cause it has low expectations, not because i think it will be batman begins good. most didnt expect too much out of spiderman or pirates 1 except some sick action but it beat low expectations and had fantasticwordofmouth,while most films now are considered mediocrebut bigmoviebuffs.

and while they did fuck up batmans marketing, the one big june push their doing with superman is 1000 times better then theire retarded august 04-june 05 "buildup" plan they did with batman.