What are The Hobbit's prospects here? I forget if I've asked that before. I know ROTK finally ended up doing really well, and this has 3D.

Thanks. But are there any eight/nine digit actuals?

You know me by now, I am really precise.

I'm not too sure. One Piece Film Z is expected beat it Opening Weekend, and for the most part, Japan audiences lately haven't really taken to prequels/sequels/reboots that are released too many years apart (especially if they follow a conclusion film). They tend to prefer such films being released one year (or less) apart.

And 3D actually seems to have become a hindrance for films in Japan, the complete opposite just one-two years ago. Every major 3D release this year has barely managed a multiplier over 5 - below the average, and the 3D share only exceeded 60% in a couple cases vs. the 80-90% for 2010/2011 releases. The only major 3D releases to get a multiplier of 6 (average) or more were Always 3 (6.19x) and The Avengers (7.12x, largely thanks to opening Tuesday during Obon Week).

They'd be wise to keep the 3D share under 60% for tThe Hobbit so anyone not wanting to see it in 3D have the 2D option. This really hurt Always 3 at the beginning of the year which had 80% of it's screens in 3D. Those screens were empty and the 20% 2D screens ended up making 70%+ of the film's total. It would have done so much more if only it had more 2D screens available. Other similar cases includes Brave and Tintin.

A more wordy response than I intended, and in the end I think The Hobbit will do well, just not as well as The Lord of the Ring films.

17,503,434 / 730,214,248

Still boggling over Eva 3.0 almost matching Potter 7.2 on a quarter of he screens. Is there a screen size disparity in Japan like in the US, where increasing the screen count significantly might not add as many seats as one might think, or would adding screen count close to Potter's have increased the potential seating to close to 4 to 1? Just curious.

Also, do you have any more on the reaction to the film? I wasn't too concerned about your initial "downbeat" comment since that's where this should be in the story arc. I would think that if the reaction is "downbeat, but in a good way", that would actually be good.

Finally, leaving Eva out of the equation for the moment - I take it Bayside Shakedown is not going to make to spot #2 for the year at this point?

Screen counts hardly matter in Japan. Very few local films see more than 400 screens (record is Ponyo with 481) and they can easily gross more than the Hollywood films that typically get twice as many screens. Same also goes for all films really. A Hollywood film released on 300 screens can easily outgross one released on 800 screens.

I don't think screen counts matter much because the vast majority of screens (probably over 75%) are located in the Kanto and Kansai regions (central Japan) where about 60% of Japan's population lives meaning that's where most of the box office comes from, too. However, increasing the screen count would have resulted in Eva 3.0 grossing even more I think because despite almost doubling it's screen count over Eva 2.0, it still sold out more theaters and increased it's psa as well.

User reviews on Yahoo Movies!, Eiga, and other movie sites are still a bit mixed with 3/5 rating averages. From what I've read (not too much because I'm not that far in the series), some fans think the film veered too far from the tv series with this film (and from the previous Rebuld films) saying it doesn't feel like Evangelion anymore and finding it confusing. On the other hand, some welcomed the change. That is what's causing the mixed feelings I feel. Another complaint I've seen mentioned multiple times was that there wasn't enough action scenes in this one (minor or a non-issue imo).

It's still early to say if the mixed response so far will effect the film (I'm about to post an update suggesting it hasn't hurt it at least so far) though.

And as for Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL, I don't know if it'll surpass 'Thermae Romae' and become the #2 film of the year. It's definitely slowed down a lot the past couple weeks and tracking will end pretty soon. But distributor Toho often plays their major releases at their cinemas for up to 6 months, so it won't be known for awhile. There's also Eva 3.0 to consider. If it stays in 2012, it could end up beating both Bayside Shakedown and Thermae Romae and become the #2 film of 2012.

Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo Update:

'Evangelion 3.0' exceeded 1 million admissions after four days in release. Since opening, the film has grossed ¥1,581,121,800 ($19.7 million) on 1,103,443 admissions on 224 screens. This is the highest four day total this year, still ahead of 'Umizaru: Brave Hearts' (¥1.563 billion four-day total) which opened over a holiday weekend in July.

That means it grossed ¥450,117,200 ($5.6 million) on 331,679 admissions on Monday-Tuesday on 224 screens.

It looks to be on course to hit ¥2.5 billion ($31/32 million) after two weeks or 9 days in release. Most films usually get multipliers of about 2.2/2.3x from there which gives it a rough projected total range of ¥5.5-6 billion ($70-75 million) right now assuming a ¥2.5 billion 9-day total.

Appreciated.

I have to imagine that even if reaction to Evangelion 3.0 is mixed that people will still want to show up for finale en masse, especially if it's coming out next year. When you've followed a series this far...

I don't think the reception is weak enough to keep some away from the final film next year(?). The issues I've allowed myself to read haven't been about the quality of the film, anyway. Just some problems being fewer action scenes (non-issue imo, the battles in the film are against Angels 12 and 13 when you exclude the film's opening against Angel 11), movie is too short (106 mins isn't that short), and the plot is confusing/different (possible problem, but it can't be anymore confusing than how the tv series ended or so I've heard).

The 2013 tentative date was removed from the main site sometime over the past couple days so I guess for now the release date is unknown. Eva 3.0's release date wasn't even announced until 4 months before it opened, though, so it could be at anytime.

Since this upcoming weekend is the last weekend of the box office year, and Eva 3 is assured to stay on top, here are all the #1 films from 2012's box office year:

#1 Films of 2012
Dec. 3-4, 2011 - Nov. 24-25, 2012

Umizaru: Brave Hearts (5 Weeks)
Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (5 Weeks)
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (5 Weeks)
ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 (3 Weeks)
Thermae Romae (3 Weeks)
Men in Black 3 (3 Weeks)
Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2 Weeks)
The Floating Castle (2 Weeks)
Resident Evil: Retribution (2 Weeks)
Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (2 Weeks, non-consecutive)
Rurouni Kenshin (2 Weeks)
The Amazing Spider-Man (2 Weeks)
Snow White and the Huntsman (2 Weeks)
In Time (2 Weeks)
Connection (1 Week)
The Expendables 2 (1 Week)
Smile Pretty Cure: Big Mismatch in a Picture Book (1 Week)
Outrage 2: Beyond (1 Week)
The Avengers (1 Week)
Dark Shadows (1 Week)
Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (1 Week)
SPEC: The Movie (1 Week)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (1 Week)
Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max (1 Week)
Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie (1 Week)

2012 (Box Office Year)
Most Weeks in the Top 10

Thermae Romae (13 Weeks)
Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (9 Weeks)
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (9 Weeks)
Umizaru: Brave Hearts (8 Weeks)
The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (8 Weeks)
ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 (8 Weeks)
Pokemon B&W: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman (7 Weeks)
The Intouchables (7 Weeks)*
Dark Shadows (7 Weeks)
Men in Black 3 (7 Weeks)
Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (7 Weeks)
Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (7 Weeks)
Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie (7 Weeks)
Japan's Islands: Tales of the Animals (7 Weeks)

*BOM has it at 8 weeks, but they never included Magica Madoka's opening on their chart which bumped The Intouchables out of the Top 10.

2012 (Box Office Year)
Best Multipliers and Worst (¥1 billion+, Wide Releases)

[BEST]
Thermae Romae (13.75x)
The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (11.45x)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (11.16x)
Friends: Naki on Monster Island (10.42x)
Chronicles of My Mother (9.47x)
Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto (9.47x)
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (9.39x)
Dearest (9.14x)
Heruta Skelter (8.75x)
We Were There: Part I (8.50x)

[WORST]
Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Super Hero Taisen (3.81x)
Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max (4.01x)
Space Brothers (4.06x)
Naruto: Road to Ninja (4.67x)
Total Recall (4.69x)
Outrage 2: Beyond (4.87x)
The Adventures of Tintin (4.96x)
Kamen Rider Fourze: Everyone, Space is Here! (4.96x)
The Dark Knight Rises (5.16x)
SPEC: The Movie (5.16x)

Note: Subject to change depending on final totals.

2012 (Box Office Year)
Highest Opening Weekend (2-Day) Per-Screen-Average for a Wide Release (100+ screens / 47 Prefectures)

Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo - ¥5,083,019 ($62,753) [224 scr]*
K-ON! The Movie - ¥2,308,835 ($29,620) [137 scr]
Umizaru: Brave Hearts - ¥1,951,613 ($24,716) [450 scr]
Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker - ¥1,794,133 ($22,806) [351 scr]
Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL - ¥1,779,359 ($22,721) [452 scr]
SPEC: The Movie - ¥1,679,975 ($20,676) [279 scr]
Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles - ¥1,539,323 ($18,943) [359 scr]
Pokemon B&W: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - ¥1,426,168 ($18,061) [357 scr]
Thermae Romae - ¥1,422,870 ($17,752) [304 scr]
Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider: Super Hero Taisen - ¥1,404,241 ($17,322) [292 scr]

*New Record

Hollywood films rarely exceed a PSA of ¥1 million ($12,000) because they open on so many screens compared to local films.

2012 PRESS RELEASE:

Coming Late-January


STATISTICS:


2012 Statistics coming late-January.


TOP GROSSING MOVIES:

2012


2011


2010


2009

2008

2007

2006




PAST THREADS:
2009
2010
2011
2012

2013 (Box Office Year)
Release Schedule (Major Studios and Notable Releases)

December 1
Skyfall (Sony)
Inazuma Eleven GO! VS Danball Senki W: The Movie (Toho)
The Woman in Black (Broad Media Studios)
Anpanman's Birthday (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
The Darkest Hour (SPO)

December 8
Today, I Started Loving You (Toho)
Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Wizard & Fourze (TOEI)
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (Gaga)

December 14 (Friday)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.)

December 15
One Piece Film: Z (TOEI)
Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho)
Frankenweenie (Disney)
G'mor evian! (Showgate)

December 21 (Friday)
Les Miserables (Toho-Towa)

December 22
Ooku: The Inner Chambers 2 (Shochiku/Asmik Ace)
Kaiketsu Zorori Da-Da-Da-Daibouken (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
Anonymous (Phantom Film)
Comme un chef (Gaga)

December 28 (Friday)
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 2 (Kadokawa Pictures)
Blue Exorcist: The Movie (Shochiku)

[National Holidays in December]

Emperor's Birthday (12/23)
The birthday of the current Emperor is always a national holiday.

Christmas/New Years Eve (12/24-31)
This week isn't a national holiday, but is one of three biggest weeks of the year (extending into New Years), alongside Golden Week and Obon Week, at the box office.



************************************************

January 5
[No Wide Openers]
-This weekend is typically abandoned by Studios.

January 11 (Friday)
Taken 2 (Fox)
Flying Swords of Dragon Gate (Showgate)

January 12
Hunter x Hunter: Phantom Rouge (Toho)
Looper (Gaga/Pony Canyon)
Konshin (Shochiku)
Space Battleship Yamato 2199: Chapter IV (Shochiku)
Freelancers (Nikkatsu)

January 18 (Friday)
Ted (Toho-Towa)
Albert Nobbs (Transformer)

January 19
Tokyo Family (Shochiku)

January 25 (Friday)
Life of Pi (Fox)

January 26
Strawberry Night (Toho)
Goodbye, Debussy (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
Tsuya's Night (TOEI)

[National Holidays in January]

New Years Day (1/1)
This is the most important holiday in Japan.

Coming of Age (1/14)
The coming of age of 20 year old men and women is celebrated on this national holiday.



************************************************


February 1 (Friday)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox)
Jack Reacher (Paramount)
Berserk Golden Age Arc III: Descent (Warner Bros.)
Documentary of AKB48 3: No Flowers without Rain (Toho Video Division)

February 2
Yellow Elephant (Showgate)
Fire with Fire (Nikkatsu)
Jiro Dreams of Sushi (Transformer)

February 8 (Friday)
Ghost Rider 2 (Shochiku/Pony Canyon)
Moonrise Kingdom (Phantom Film)

February 9
Monsters Inc. (3D) (Disney)
Star Driver: The Movie (Aniplex/Shochiku)
Brain Man (Toho)

February 14 (Thursday)
A Good Day to Die Hard (Fox)

February 15 (Friday)
Zero Dark Thirty (Gaga)
Red Lights (Presido)

February 16
Masquerade (CJ Entertainment)
Dredd 3D (Broad Media Studios)
Hindenburg (TOEI)

February 22 (Friday)
Bachelorette (Gaga)

February 23
A Certain Magical Index (Warner Bros.)
Chair on a Grassland (TOEI)

-Coming in February:
Martha Marcy May Marlene (SPO)

[National Holidays in January]

National Foundation Day (1/11)
According to the earliest Japanese history records, on this day in the year 660 BC the first Japanese emperor was crowned.

Friday, Nov. 23
Labour Thanksgiving Day (aka Imperial Harvest Festival)

1. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥311 million ($3.8 million), 224 scr, Day 7
2. Holy Scripture of Evil (Toho) ¥133 million ($1.6 million), 309 scr, Day 14
3. The Floating Castle (Toho/Asmik Ace) ¥115 million ($1.4 million), 325 scr, Day 22
4. Trouble with the Curve (Warner Bros.) ¥54 million ($660,000), 252 scr, NEW
5. Lockout (Shochiku) ¥46 million ($570,000), 127 scr, NEW
6. Spirit Helper (Toho) ¥44 million ($540,000), 270 scr, Day 7
7. Tug-Of-War!! (Toho) ¥41 million ($510,000), 278 scr, NEW
8. Crow's Thumb (Warner Bros.) ¥40 million ($490,000), 252 scr, NEW
9. A Chorus of Angels (TOEI) ¥36 million ($440,000), 331 scr, Day 21
10. Smile Pretty Cure: Big Mismatch in a Picture Book! (TOEI) ¥35 million ($430,000), 172 scr, Day 28

'Evangelion 3.0' is still in berserk mode. That's a ¥1.39 million ($17,000) psa for the day (nearly enough to make the list in the previous post). Mixed reviews don't seem to be having any effect so far.

The film is definitely over ¥2 billion ($25 million) now, and likely closer to ¥2.1/2.2 billion ($27 million) after seven days which means it's more or less matched it's huge opening weekend over the past five days. Now it appears it'll come pretty close to ¥3 billion ($37 million) after this Sunday. The last film to break ¥3 billion after 9 days was 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2'.

'Holy Scripture' and 'Floating Castle' are still doing very well for themselves, too. Scripture will likely cross ¥2 billion ($25 million) before it's finished making it the top grossing R15+ film since 'Confessions' in 2010. And 'Floating Castle' is still on track for ¥3 billion (near $40 million).

As for the openers, it's all-around disappointing except perhaps for 'Trouble with the Curve'. Decent start that shows Eastwood still has some drawing ability in the market (baseball also helps!). It's also the only Hollywood film in the Top 10.

The Weekend Forecast will be posted later tonight.

11/24-25
Weekend Forecast

1 (1) Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥600 million ($7.35 million), Week 2
2 (2) Holy Scripture of Evil (Toho) ¥190 million ($2.35 million), Week 3
3 (3) The Floating Castle (Toho/Asmik Ace) ¥175 million ($2.15 million), Week 4
4 (-) Trouble with the Curve (Warner Bros.) ¥95 million ($1.15 million), NEW
5 (4) Spirit Helper (Toho) ¥85 million ($1.05 million), Week 2
6 (-) Crow's Thumb (Warner Bros.) ¥80 million ($980,000), NEW
7 (-) Lockout (Shochiku) ¥75 million ($920,000), NEW
8 (-) Tug-Of-War!! (Toho) ¥70 million ($860,000), NEW
9 (5) A Chorus of Angels (TOEI) ¥60 million ($740,000), Week 3
10 (6) Smile Pretty Cure: Big Mismatch in a Picture Book! (TOEI) ¥50 million ($610,000), Week 5

'Eva 3.0' will probably dip around 50% in it's second weekend. That's a bit of a steep drop for a second weekend, but one has to factor in the magnitude of it's opening weekend, the lower ticket prices (won't be nearly as many advance/general admission fee prices) from this point forward, and while it hasn't become an issue yet (many fans still haven't seen it), possible mixed WOM spreading.

The best comparison I suppose is 'One Piece Film Strong World'. That one opened just over ¥1 billion as well on a low screen count and dropped 59% in it's second weekend. I doubt 'Eva 3.0' drops that high though because 'One Piece' had a significant promotion going on for the first 1.5 million viewers (a free copy of Volume 0) and the fanbase is incredibly huge (every manga volume, 3-4 a year, since 2009 has been selling over 3 million copies each).

I'm predicting 'Eva 3.0' will be at ¥2.8 billion ($34/35 million) after Sunday.

'Holy Scripture' and 'Floating Castle' will remain pretty close to one another and should deliver impressive figures again. The latter should exceed ¥2 billion ($25 million) after four weeks in release.

All the openers are pretty much being dumped. Based on Friday's estimates, 'Trouble with the Curve' is performing the best and I expect it'll best the other openers. Eastwood will also have the honor(?) of having the only Hollywood film in the Top 10.

The bottom-half can go any which way, really.

Release Schedule Updated.

Note: For some films, especially local, their release date isn't announced until two or three months before the actual release so the schedule isn't final.

Bullet to the Head should get a release in Japan, right? Stallone is popular there and it's a Warner Bros. movie, and they've been releasing movies in Japan for years.

It has a tentative 2013 release. My guess will be in the fall.

Warner Bros. isn't distributing it in Japan, though. Shochiku has it and they're a solid distributor.

Awesome. Thanks.

11/24-25
Weekend Estimates

1 (1) Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥449 million ($5.49 million), -57%, Week 2
2 (2) Holy Scripture of Evil (Toho) ¥202 million ($2.47 million), -18%, Week 3
3 (3) The Floating Castle (Toho/Asmik Ace) ¥160 million ($1.96 million), -27%, Week 4
4 (-) Trouble with the Curve (Warner Bros.) ¥82 million ($1.02 million), NEW
5 (4) Spirit Helper (Toho) ¥69 million ($840,000 million), -40%, Week 2
6 (-) Crow's Thumb (Warner Bros.) ¥67 million ($820,000), 0, NEW
7 (-) Tug-Of-War!! (Toho) ¥62 million ($860,000), NEW
8 (5) A Chorus of Angels (TOEI) ¥47 million ($570,000), -42% Week 4
9 (-) Lockout (Shochiku) ¥46 million ($560,000), 0, NEW
10 (6) Smile Pretty Cure: Big Mismatch in a Picture Book! (TOEI) ¥43 million ($520,000), -44%, Week 5


11/23-25
(Holiday Weekend Estimates)

1 (1) Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥760 million ($9.29 million), -31%, Week 2
2 (2) Holy Scripture of Evil (Toho) ¥333 million ($4.07 million), +36%, Week 3
3 (3) The Floating Castle (Toho/Asmik Ace) ¥284 million ($3.48 million), +30%, Week 4
4 (-) Trouble with the Curve (Warner Bros.) ¥136 million ($1.66 million), 0, NEW
5 (4) Spirit Helper (Toho) ¥114 million ($1.39 million), -1%, Week 2
6 (-) Crow's Thumb (Warner Bros.) ¥108 million ($1.32 million), 0, NEW
7 (-) Tug-Of-War!! (Toho) ¥104 million ($1.27 million), 0, NEW
8 (5) A Chorus of Angels (TOEI) ¥87 million ($1.06 million), +7%, Week 4
9 (-) Lockout (Shochiku) ¥82 million ($1.01 million), 0, NEW
10 (6) Smile Pretty Cure: Big Mismatch in a Picture Book! (TOEI) ¥72 million ($890,000), -4%, Week 5

Note: Holiday Weekend Chart - Increases/Decreases over last week compared to just the two-day of last weekend.

'Eva 3.0' saw a hefty drop over just the weekend frame, but it really should have been expected. The opening was record-breaking and Friday was also a Holiday which took some of the weekend audience away I'm sure. The 3-day weekend is quite strong, though.

The film was at about ¥1.8/1.9 billion gong into Friday, so the 9-day total should be approx. ¥2.6/2.7 billion ($32/33 million). Most films can get a 9-day multiplier of 2.2/2.3 but given it's huge opening and holiday boosted second weekend, it's probably going to be closer to 2 so I'm predicting the film will finish with about ¥5.5 billion ($70 million). If it stays in 2012, that's good enough to claim the #4 spot for the year (behind Umizaru, Thermae Romae, and Bayside Shakedown).

Very strong for 'Holy Scripture of Evil'. It's opening was a little disappointing, but it's legs so far have been very, very impressive. 'The Floating Castle' is also doing very well each week.

Pretty decent for 'Trouble with the Curve' which can't be said about the other openers being dumped. At least 'Crow's Thumb' and 'Tug-Of-War!!' are both estimated to have broke ¥100 million over the 3-day...

Dec. 1-2
Weekend Preview



007: Skyfall - Distributor: Sony
Predecessors/Comparable Film Performances:
2009, 007: Quantum of Solace - Opening: ¥573,153,162 / Total: ¥1.98 billion (3.45x)
2007, 007: Casino Royale - Opening: ¥270,515,016 (4-Day: ¥375,238,744) / Total: ¥2.21 billion (8.16x)

Bond's last outing had the worst legs of any ¥500 million+ opener in the past decade (or longer, a 3.45x multiplier is... abysmal) and as a result grossed less than it's predecessor.

Will 'Skyfall' suffer because of 'Quantum of Solace's horrible reception? Personally, I don't think so or at least just in the beginning. Reviews are excellent and the worldwide success of the film so far should make those on the fence on this one come out to see it eventually.

Current Prediction: Opening - ¥400-450 million / Total: ¥2.5-3 billion.





Inazuma Eleven Go! Vs. Danball Senki W: The Movie - Distributor: Toho
Predecessors/Comparable Film Performances:
2012, Inazuma Eleven Go! The Ultimate Bond Griffon - Opening: ¥138,269,793 (4-Day: ¥292,842,131) / Total: ¥1.12 billion est. (8.10x)
2011, Inazuma Eleven the Movie: The Invasion of the Strongest Army Corps Ogre - Opening: ¥216,409,600 (4-Day: ¥536,609,600) / Total: ¥1.74 billion (8.04x)

The second Inazuma film saw a decrease from it's predecessor but had slightly better legs. And this year's Inazuma Eleven will be the first time it's opening during the weekend so an Opening Weekend figure higher than it's predecessors seems reasonably likely. Legs however will be much weaker now that's it's opening well before New Year.

Current Prediction: Opening - ¥250-275 million / Total - ¥1.2-1.4 billion.


-Important Notes for this Weekend-
Saturday falls on the 1st of the Month and most Cinemas offer 40% ticket discounts for the day. Expect a significant admission increase across the board, but much lower avg. ticket prices, especially for the openers.

2012's Biggest Winners and Losers:

[THE WINNERS]


The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki
This original film opened in the middle of Summer and had to compete with very well-known properties, Pixar's 'Brave' and 'Pokemon'. And in a market where original films struggle, 'Wolf Children' wasn't expected to beat either of them... except it grossed almost as much as 'Brave' and 'Pokemon' combined. Displaying legs that rivaled a Studio Ghibli release, the film has earned an est. ¥4.2 billion ($53 million) at the box office so far (it's still playing) making it the highest grossing original, non-brand animated film of all-time and cementing director Mamoru Hosada as Hayao Miyazaki's likely successor in the market. And it's success story hasn't ended quite yet. 'Wolf Children' is the frontrunner for this year's Best Animated Feature, and if it does win, it will make Hosada's third-consecutive win in the category (following wins for 'The Girl Who Leapt Through Time' and 'Summer Wars').


Thermae Romae
The comedy was expected to be a decent size hit for distributor Toho over Golden Week and had an impressive debut over ¥400 million ($5 million). Toho, always over-projecting their films to build hype, was expecting the film to finish with ¥3 billion ($35-40 million). And as usual, Toho was well-off with their projection... but in the opposite direction! 'Thermae Romae' earned it's already impressive opening weekend back 5x(!) over the course of Golden Week, spent 13-consecutive weeks in the Top 10, and is currently sitting at nearly ¥6 billion ($76 million) and the #2 spot of the year with one of the best multipliers (13.75x) in years.


The Avengers
The comic superhero film genre is one of those in Japan that has never been particularly big. In fact, in recent years the majority haven't even reached the ¥1 billion milestone in the market. But with it's worldwide success, strong reviews, and the novelty factor in play, 'The Avengers' earned more than every superhero film released since 2009 combined with an est. total of ¥3.6 billion ($46 million). Enough to achieve a Top 10 spot for the year marking the first time a non-Spider-Man superhero film has been in the yearly Top 10 since 'Batman' in 1990.


Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted
As with the superhero film genre, imported CGI animated films have always underperformed in Japan with the exception of Pixar releases and a couple Disney films. Some of them haven't even been abe to find a distributor in the country (Megamind, Ice Age 4). And even though 'Madagascar 3' was helped by 3D, it was a huge shock this past Summer becoming Dreamworks' highest grossing film since 2008's 'Kung Fu Panda'. The third entry doubled Pixar's 'Brave' with an est. gross of ¥2.01 billion ($26 million).


Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo
Okay, so the hype and buzz for this film was beyond that of any film released in recent years. It was going to be big, very big, just not as big as it actually has become. The film opened over ¥1 billion with ¥1.13 billion ($14.1 million), giving it the best opening of the year by far, the second best opening for any animated film (behind 'Howl's Moving Caste', though it did beat it in USD), and it broke the all-time PSA record with a mammoth ¥5.08 million psa ($62,700 psa) among many other achievements. To put the psa record into perspective, the opening weekend rivaled the likes of 'Harry Potter 7.2', 'Alice in Wonderland', and 'Pirates of the Caribbean 4' but 'Eva 3.0's psa beat all of them when they're combined.


Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles
After 32 film entries, released annually since 1980, one might expect a franchise would begin to overstay it's welcome. The blue robot-cat from the future just laughs at that idea. This year's film delivered the third best opening in the franchise's history, impressive enough given it's the 32nd entry, it also has a spot in the Top 10 of the year - very impressive! Yet that's still not that impressive. 'Doraemon 32' became the highest grossing, and most-attended film, in the franchise's 32 film, 32-year history with an est. ¥3.6 billion ($46 million) and 3.3 million admissions. Anything else? Yep! The Doreamon franchise hit 97.49 million admissions this year making it the second most attended franchise of all-time behind Godzilla's 99.25 million admissions. Doraemon will become the most attended franchise ever next year.


The Intouchables
Original films in the market tend to struggle. Imported original films almost always struggle. And Imported foreign-language films always struggle. Someone forgot to tell 'The Intouchables' these rules. The film opened in limited release (and never went wide) and sold out over 60% of it's showtimes over the weekend and never slowed down (it still hasn't almost 3 months later!). During it's first month in release, it consistently sold out 50% of it's showtimes even on the weekdays or I should say even on the weekends because it's weekdays are even stronger than it's weekends. Despite being in limited release, the film enjoyed an impressive seven-consecutive weeks in the Top 10 and recently sold more tickets than any french film in History surpassing 'Amelie'. As of last week, it has earned ¥1.4 billion ($18 million) and is still going strong.


The Losers of 2012 will be posted tomorrow.