Let me endure the wrath.

7/15

You have similar numbers to mine.

I just forgot my re-release predictions

17m OW/54m Domestic Total

Some new interviews with Cameron here and here.

In summary, the special edition will actually feature 9 additional minutes, pretty much all CG stuff. As far as the sequels go, he's not sitting idle, making notes for Avatar 2 and 3, he has an overall narrative arc ready but the full scripts are still some ways out, first they have to get the deals worked out (i assume with the studio). They are actually contemplating doing 2 and 3 back to back. His main focus for the next couple months is the novel that corresponds to the first film. And he confirmed that he's producing Guillermo Del Toro's At the Mountains of Madness (in native 3D of course).

So in other words:

It is unlikely that the sequel will arrive before 2015...

I'd say unlikely before 2014.

It's listed as wide on BOM.

The question is how many theaters are required to be considered wide...

it used to be 600, might be lower now

its got the two biggest theaters here in anchorage again. 4 showings each on Lie-max the other IMAX.

Will it manage a PTA of over $10,000?

If it is going wide with more than 500 theaters I think 10,000 might not be possible. But if it gets to the expected 350-400 theaters then the PTA could be quite good enough and very close to 10,000 if it does not cross it.

In that 1 theater when very few people knew it will be available last weekend it managed 10,511 PTA so I think so it is achievable.

you're a fewl, the film will manage a 10,000+ PTA opening day.

Ha ha I like it BJ at his best. Do remember to take note of my predictions for the re-release OW and you will find my answer

I think the concept of wide release needs to be redefined. There are more theaters out there than ever, and more theaters continue to appear every day. I think wide release should be 1,000 or more locations.

Well, no. The number of theatres is decreasing, and has been for a while.

Is there actual data to support this?

I remember seeing some data years ago that showed the number of theaters were increasing.

I think Star Wars provides an excellent comparison:

Avatar initial run
Gross: $749,685,805
Admissions: 75,500,000

Star Wars initial run
Gross: $221,280,994
Admissions: 99,200,000

Star Wars sold more admissions on its first run, but Avatar was pulled faster due to other 3D releases. Probably wouldn't have made too much difference though.

Star Wars had its first re-release a bit over a year later:

Star Wars 1st re-release OW (1978)
Theatres: 1,750
Gross: $10,166,336
Admissions: 4,340,000
PTA (gross): $5,809
PTA (admissions): 2,480

Using Star Wars' admissions per theatre seems reasonable. Avatar might not have the same rabid fanbase as Star Wars had, however it is being released in considerably less theatres and is in an era of greater frontloadedness.

Considering it is being released exclusively in 3D and IMAX, its average ticket price will be higher - say $12. So my prediction for OW:

Avatar re-release OW prediction
Theatres: 750
PTA (admissions): 2,480
PTA (gross): $29,800
Gross: $22,300,000

I don't think it's going to be in theatres for two weeks only. But there should also be considerable rush, at least in comparison to Avatar's main run. I'll give it a 3.5 multiplier. So, complete prediction:

Opening: $22m
Total: $78m

I expected 400-500, so that's good.

Wow, my total is in the ballpark of your opening.

Biggest flaw in that reasoning is home video takes away the need for people to go back to see the movies in theaters. The Blu-Ray sold by the bucket load, and I can't imagine many of those people forking over another 12-15 dollars when they can just rewatch the movie at home.

I know, but 3D is not available on home video, so I'm just ignoring that.

Excellent I never thought it would get more than 500 theaters. 17m is not happening now it should easily do 30m OW.

Very nice analysis Inny Binny