I was realistic when I didn't join this

Looks like my initial prediction of 375m is happening

I think WOM is too good and the Sat. increase too strong to declare it over yet.

I can dream right? If it comes true though...

It looks as if it will be a Spider-Man 2 afterall.

Almost. But if it falls 50% this weekend... STILL ALIVE!

I'm pretty sure 450m+ is impossible, that would take a potter4 level multiplier.

Normally I'd agree, even with WOM, for a sequel like this, but I think WOM is on another level here, about the best of the decade. It's still at 4.5 netflix; the only other film with that rating that I know of is The Avengers. If it stays near there and doesn't get well past 400m then WOM can't make a significant difference for any sequel.

Another thing is that I think the relatively low opening leaves a potential audience for WOM to easily reach. I'm thinking of Batman Begins and Transformers 3.

I give it a 59% decline this weekend, but I hope for 50%.

Relatively LOW opening? Are you out of your mind? :-)

What I mean is that there was audience prone to see the movie that didn't go.

Well, you can say that about any movie. Catching Fire might not have opened to expectations, but it surely did not open low in any way. No all-time Top 10 opening weekend is ever LOW.

You can say that to a degree about any movie, but how many have millions who liked the last one in theaters or on video, but who were not inclined to see to the sequel?

The Dark Knight Rises?

Good point.

Still, I'd say WOM is better for CF.

I want to believe.

Does anyone else think this has a WOM like Avengers? I am not sure about US but here its definitely not in the same league as Avengers WOM IMO.

That's the spirit.

If this still happens I want BJ to be put in the OUT category.

It's not going to get the same "whole family" demographic - - too violent for younger children.

I was gonna put myself in the OUT category if this happens, I still don't see it.

There is still hope, very slight ofcourse but there is still hope.

Not that slight. New Moon made 90+ millions after its Black Friday, which was under 18M. Using the same multiplier (5.1) on Catching Fire, we get around 160 millions for a 413M total (meaning the film is - almost - a lock to be #1 for the year). If we use BD1, we get a similar result. With BD2, it would be closer to 420M. Catching fire is closer to Christmas than New Moon was, should have a better post-Thanksgiving hold, has better WOM, a more diversified audience, a higher chance of drawing casual moviegoers and should also experience a much smaller theatre loss against the usual bunch of Christmas openers.

As of now, I'd say it's 30/70.

I think the VERY VERY best-case scenario is $430 million.

Yeah I think it will probably do between 410-420, which will still make it the number 1 movie of the year.

31.25m

BTW, I should have included Casino Royale on that list.

Unless this gets some INSANE legs during holidays $450m still stays as a long shot so I'd say there is a chance but very slight now.

If it holds like Twilight from now on it can still make 500m.