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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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 Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Keyser Söze wrote: EPIC FAIL. Probably wont hit 350M. Its rare for a 400M grosser to increase and we found out that its dropping quite a bit. That's still bad logic. Pirates, Shrek, TDK all would have if their predesserors had earned enough.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 6:44 am |
 
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6786
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club DP07 wrote: Keyser Söze wrote: EPIC FAIL. Probably wont hit 350M. Its rare for a 400M grosser to increase and we found out that its dropping quite a bit. That's still bad logic. Pirates, Shrek, TDK all would have if their predesserors had earned enough. but none of them came close to 400m. So its just conjecture on how the sequels would have behaved with a 400M 1st flick. We have seen in SW EP1 and SM1 that sequels decrease. In the case of SM2 even strong reviews/wom did not help.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 6:51 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Keyser Söze wrote: DP07 wrote: Keyser Söze wrote: EPIC FAIL. Probably wont hit 350M. Its rare for a 400M grosser to increase and we found out that its dropping quite a bit. That's still bad logic. Pirates, Shrek, TDK all would have if their predesserors had earned enough. but none of them came close to 400m. So its just conjecture on how the sequels would have behaved with a 400M 1st flick. We have seen in SW EP1 and SM1 that sequels decrease. In the case of SM2 even strong reviews/wom did not help. No, it's obvious how they would have preformed. Having more people see the first only could have increased demand for the sequel. You're using circular thinking. SW and SM were the type to decrease whatever the gross. WOM wasn't that stong for SM; it was decent.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 6:55 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Magnus wrote: Yeah....SM1 had more than just decent WOM. I'm going based on 3.8 netflix which is below Thor, Avengers, Batman Trilogy, CA, IM, and FC. I think there's this perception that it was loved because it was such a blockbuster.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 10:07 am |
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Inny Binny
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:24 pm
Posts: 564
Location: New Zealand
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club so i was out by the way.  Inny Binny wrote: i am...not in. i mean, i wouldn't be hugely surprised, but it's hardly the most likely thing. especially given that the first one opened so high, so it wasn't solely a WOM hit.
for me somewhere around $370m seems most likely.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 10:07 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Magnus wrote: DP07 wrote: Magnus wrote: Yeah....SM1 had more than just decent WOM. I'm going based on 3.8 netflix which is below Thor, Avengers, Batman Trilogy, CA, IM, and FC. I think there's this perception that it was loved because it was such a blockbuster. yeah SM1 did not have lesser WOM than Thor or FC or CA. Also, you do know that more current films get overrated by people on sites like Netflix and IMDB? There's a reason why Rush and Prisoners are in the top 250 of IMDB. Those films wouldn't even sniff it 10 years ago. I think part of the reason is that current films are still dropping. IM3 was 4.1 not long ago; now it's at 3.9. I think Thor, FC, and CA have millions of votes and stable ratings. (Well, FC only has a bit over a million and given that netflix is driven by rentals I have to wonder how its fanbase is supposedly expanding compared to Thor and CA. Anyway off topic.) I don't know what else there is to say. Nothing about SM made me think it would be beloved, but you might call that my bias.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 10:52 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Magnus wrote: also, the idea that SM1 WOM isnt strong is debunked by the fact that SM2 outpaced it for 22 days. While SM1 opened in May and SM2 opened on July 4th weekend so it's not apples-to-apples, that's still three weeks of outpacing that can't be ignored. SM2 still had clearly a big enough opening to match if not do better than SM1. The goodwill from SM1 made SM2 get the opening it had (it's opening at the time broken several records).
If anything, SM2 performance is more indicating that SM2's WOM was not as spectacular as everyone says it is. Its legs were not that great. They were good for a mega-opener but it wasn't on par with other big-openers like TDK, Shrek 2, etc. SM's pace was more affected by sellouts, so I don't think a better pace with more screens says much. I know it opened on a Wed. but SM2 had a 2nd week drop under 50% and a multiplier near 3.5 which is pretty good.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 10:59 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club I had a way of calculating weekday openers. I don't remember how I did it anymore, but I came to 127-128 for SM2.
Well, you could just take the 7 day and adjust for the weekend-weekday ratio.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 12:02 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club I firmly decided to stop arguing with DP07 about WoM when he claimed that The Ring didn't have great WoM.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 12:11 pm |
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Brian
Ocarina of Time
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:21 pm
Posts: 7951
Location: Hyrule
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club The first Spider-Man was pure novelty
After Batman in the 90's, he was the first AAA superhero on the big screen.................. X-men don't count
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 12:20 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club The next 9 days can save this club  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 1:44 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club DP07 wrote: I had a way of calculating weekday openers. I don't remember how I did it anymore, but I came to 127-128 for SM2.
Well, you could just take the 7 day and adjust for the weekend-weekday ratio. Doing that I got 121.2m for SM2's opening. I thought of another way to do it and got 115.2m. I don't remember how I originally calculated it.
Last edited by DP07 on Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:52 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Dr. Lecter wrote: I firmly decided to stop arguing with DP07 about WoM when he claimed that The Ring didn't have great WoM. Are these 4m not a good sample? http://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Ring/60024914?strkid=46419610_0_0&strackid=2c027bae4de3af6a_0_srl&trkid=222336
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:53 pm |
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Riggs
We had our time together
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:36 am
Posts: 13299
Location: Vienna
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club WOM will carry this to 450m. I still believe.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 6:59 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Magnus wrote: Yeah....SM1 had more than just decent WOM.  Yes, it's 2nd weekend just 18 million below the previous OPENING WEEKEND record. 114/72/45 in 2002 was just unreal. Spider-man had INCREDIBLE word of mouth. AVATAR and THE DARK KNIGHT with standing, SPIDER-MAN was the film of the decade to follow. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Sat Nov 23, 2013 7:19 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Excel wrote: Magnus wrote: Yeah....SM1 had more than just decent WOM. Yes, it's 2nd weekend just 18 million below the previous OPENING WEEKEND record. 114/72/45 in 2002 was just unreal. Sellouts. Check the dailies.
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| Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:06 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Club = dead
Congrats to the 13 that did not join
Magnus
BMP
Algren
Keyser Soze
Flava'd vs The World
Mannyisthebest
Thegun
Michael A
Brian
Excel
Jmovies
David
Dill
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| Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:24 pm |
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Bradley Witherberry
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 15197
Location: Planet Xatar
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club My BO club record remains perfect!
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| Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:26 pm |
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am
Posts: 2388
Location: Poland
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club BJ wrote: Club = dead
Congrats to the 13 that did not join
Captain of a ship who abandons ship first? What a coward! This ship has not sunk yet!
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| Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:32 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club _________________   1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:57 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club I was thinking this will come close to $450m before but now it looks like it won't get close to $400m itself :O
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| Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:29 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Jack Sparrow wrote: I was thinking this will come close to $450m before but now it looks like it won't get close to $400m itself :O I think 400m+ is still in play. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:31 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Its in play but I don't think it will make it there.
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| Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:40 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club Jack Sparrow wrote: Its in play but I don't think it will make it there. It will, BO history is on its side, adjusted for inflation only two films that made over 50m on Saturday failed to reach 400m, both came out in May 2007, Spider-man 3 and Shrek the Third, both were turds and dropped like rocks accordingly. Unadjusted Spider-man 3 is the only film to post a 50m+ Saturday to fail to reach 400m. A strong Saturday is normally a sign of great WOM. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Tue Nov 26, 2013 3:49 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club That's why I said $400m is in play...hope it gets there.
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| Tue Nov 26, 2013 4:03 am |
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