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 Friday numbers - BOM Numbers in 
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College Boy Z

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Wrong time for Cinderella Man. That's all.

Anyways, fantastic for Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Like I've been saying, its stars and action-packed trailer was bound to find a large audience.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:35 am
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Box wrote:
DP07 wrote:
I don't get how Cinderella Man dropped so much. This film was made to have legs.


Maybe because the film is utterly passable?


98% rated it good or excellent at the sneaks, it has a B+ at Yahoo, and everything else I've seen seems to indicate that WOM is fantastic.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:35 am
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tombraider17 wrote:
DP07 wrote:
I don't get how Cinderella Man dropped so much. This film was made to have legs.


Maybe the whole incident with Russell Crowe and the phone throwing could have contributed slightly. Then again, probably not, but you never know...


I think I would feel more compelled to see it, just because he did that. I think it's hilarious. If anyone seriously wants to see Cinderella Man, and then says "Wait, Russell Crowe is in that. He threw a phone on someone! I'm not supporting short fuses and temper tantrums.", then they shouldn't be watching movies in the first place.

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Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:35 am
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Indiana Jones IV

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Wow. :shock: Fantastic opening for Mr. and Mrs. Smith. I can easily see an opening anywhere in the $50-55 million range. It's nice to finally see the GORGEOUS Angelina Jolie with a huge hit under her belt.

Nice drops for ROTS (yay!) and Madagascar. Pathetic drops for Cinderella Man (I agree that it should have opened in July) and Lords of Dogtown.

Bad openings for Adventures of Sharkboy and Lava Girl and The Honeymooners, but then again, we were all expecting that I think.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:36 am
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Indiana Jones IV

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yikes high tension.. I only said 2 mill for it now im worried even that will pull in a 0%...so sad :razz:


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:36 am
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Indiana Jones IV

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rolandka19 wrote:
Wow. :shock: Fantastic opening for Mr. and Mrs. Smith. I can easily see an opening anywhere in the $50-55 million range. It's nice to finally see the GORGEOUS Angelina Jolie with a huge hit under her belt.

Nice drops for ROTS (yay!) and Madagascar. Pathetic drops for Cinderella Man (I agree that it should have opened in July) and Lords of Dogtown.

Bad openings for Adventures of Sharkboy and Lava Girl and The Honeymooners, but then again, we were all expecting that I think.


I actually think what it made is pretty good considering how bad the movie looks and to finish the weekend with anywhere from 12-14 mill isint to shabby...just my 2 cents


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:39 am
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DP07 wrote:
Box wrote:
DP07 wrote:
I don't get how Cinderella Man dropped so much. This film was made to have legs.


Maybe because the film is utterly passable?


98% rated it good or excellent at the sneaks, it has a B+ at Yahoo, and everything else I've seen seems to indicate that WOM is fantastic.



So what? That's from people who have seen it. First, you have to get people into theatres. This film obviously isn't.

Ergo, it being "passable", as in "I'll pass on this one".


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:39 am
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I think Sisterhood will have about 5.9m this weekend. Female skewing films tend to have weak increases on Saturday in the summer. How to Deal actually decreased on its second Saturday. The slight increase last week even after the Wednesday opening seems to reflect this. More schools are out this week which assists Friday even more relative to Saturday.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:40 am
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Libs wrote:
I don't see why Smith(s) would have a multiplier that low. How frontloaded could this film actually be? Surely it would make more on opening weekend than I, Robot ($51.2M) which opened when schools were all out (mid-July). I mean, it also made more on Friday than Robot did.


It's possible, maybe even probable, what you say...but have a feeling it wont be outgross I, Robot.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:40 am
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Box wrote:
DP07 wrote:
Box wrote:
DP07 wrote:
I don't get how Cinderella Man dropped so much. This film was made to have legs.


Maybe because the film is utterly passable?


98% rated it good or excellent at the sneaks, it has a B+ at Yahoo, and everything else I've seen seems to indicate that WOM is fantastic.



So what? That's from people who have seen it. First, you have to get people into theatres. This film obviously isn't.

Ergo, it being "passable", as in "I'll pass on this one".


But, why would that affect the legs?


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:42 am
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Box wrote:
Ergo, it being "passable", as in "I'll pass on this one".


Ergo isn't used nearly enough. The last time I heard it was during Matrix Reloaded.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:42 am
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Can someone give me a best case scenario for Sith. The way I look at it is that today it has 4mill, then if tomorrow it increases by 80%, then it does another 7.2 mill, then if it drops by say 28% on Sunday, that would give it 5.2 for a total of 16.2 mill. That doesn't seem realistic though does it?

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Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:43 am
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I think around 50% increase for Saturday, and around 20%-25% drop on Sunday for Sith. Hopefully yours turns right though.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:45 am
College Boy Z

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baumer72 wrote:
Can someone give me a best case scenario for Sith. The way I look at it is that today it has 4mill, then if tomorrow it increases by 80%, then it does another 7.2 mill, then if it drops by say 28% on Sunday, that would give it 5.2 for a total of 16.2 mill. That doesn't seem realistic though does it?


It should end with around $15 million this weekend, which is perfect.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:45 am
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The Kramer
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more of an increase on Saturday than Friday? I highly doubt it.

Way to go Smiths! I knew it would open to a gigantic amount. It really looks like the perfect summer movie and it will probably have good legs, proving to be an alternate from dark Batman and aliens blowing up the world. This could have a 4 multiplyer and cross $200M.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:47 am
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College Boy Z

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Nebs wrote:
Libs wrote:
I don't see why Smith(s) would have a multiplier that low. How frontloaded could this film actually be? Surely it would make more on opening weekend than I, Robot ($51.2M) which opened when schools were all out (mid-July). I mean, it also made more on Friday than Robot did.


It's possible, maybe even probable, what you say...but have a feeling it wont be outgross I, Robot.


I'm with Libs. There are still a lot of schools that are not out yet, so we're not *fully* into the summer yet.

It should make around $52 million this weekend.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:47 am
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Zingaling wrote:
Nebs wrote:
Libs wrote:
I don't see why Smith(s) would have a multiplier that low. How frontloaded could this film actually be? Surely it would make more on opening weekend than I, Robot ($51.2M) which opened when schools were all out (mid-July). I mean, it also made more on Friday than Robot did.


It's possible, maybe even probable, what you say...but have a feeling it wont be outgross I, Robot.


I'm with Libs. There are still a lot of schools that are not out yet, so we're not *fully* into the summer yet.

It should make around $52 million this weekend.


Oh, sorry, I forgot to mention. I already had in mind overestimation of these numbers. It might not even cross $50m! :shock:

;)


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:51 am
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What did High Tension make on Friday, anyway?

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Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:55 am
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DP07 wrote:
But, why would that affect the legs?



Well, it's not a guarantee that this is the major reason, or even a reason, but it's not entirely out of the question.

Suppose that every film has a limited audience reach, whatever that limit might be. Spider-Man, for example, can easily attract tens of millions of people. High Tension would be lucky to draw a few million.

In the case of films like Cinderella Man, it seems to me that the number of people who will watch this type of film is rather small. Looking at, for example, that horse film with Tobey whose name I can't remember, Road to Perdition, and Million Dollar Baby, it appears $100m would be near the limit, so around 15-20m people. However, I think that includes people who are drawn in by other factors, such as good marketing, a good release date, high visibility, etc.

It seems that visibility for CM is much lower than it was for the other films. Road to Perdition even made it to #1 for a weekend, while that horse film with Tobey whose name I can't remember probably had a better release date and was being marketed very well by the studio. M$B had the Oscars, of course.

I would say that those who considered CM a must-see have already seen it, and that few of those are left. The gross post-wknd 1 might well come from people to whom the film was recommended, but fresh audiences aren't pulled in, it appears. I think with a film like that horse film with Tobey whose name I can't remember, not only did you have great WOM, but in addition, you had a larger number of people who found it appealing without the WOM.


Last edited by Box on Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:56 am
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After only 9 people being at the 9:30 PM show Friday night I would have been really pleased with a 1 Million Friday for HIGH TENSION. But the theater wasn't busy in general. There was no line or anything and so many empty spots in the parking lot. We took two cars and got two spots in front and there were still some left. They have all of the main movies playing. It's an 18 screen theater and they're usually always much busier than this.

Anyway, before anyone says they should have just sent it straight-to-dvd, if they would have it never would have made much in rentals on DVD. But thanks to the advertising and wide release it will do much better in rentals and sales. More people will be aware of it. This could have done better if most of the TV spots weren't so poor. They made it look like some revenge flick or something and it isn't. It's a slasher flick. They didn't really show that in the ads and they kept advertising it falsely. After seeing it I can safely say this is definitely not a mainstream movie though. And it has nothing to do with the violence. I've seen more violent movies than this (at least the "R" version anyway). It's because of the twist. So many people won't give it much thought and just dismiss it as stupid. This is definitely more of an art-house movie. Something that mainstream audiences won't understand but the art-house moviegoers that like horror films will dig. I'm sure most people will actually like it and find it scary and intense until the ending, and then they'll just say the movie is stupid. It was the same thing with another Lions Gate film, the great OPEN WATER!

I'm still glad Lions Gate released it wide even if it doesn't do very well at the Box Office. It at least gave it more exposure and made more people aware of it so it will perform better on DVD. And I'm glad I was given the chance to see it in theaters. So thank you Lions Gate! They could have given it much better TV spots (There was only like one great sounding one and it was one I didn't see, which was a trimmed down version of the first trailer with the cover of the song Superstar by Sonic Youth playing and tons of quotes. I found the first trailer great so I imagine this TV spot would have been terrific. That's the way it should have been all along.). But other than mishandling the marketing I don't mind the rest. They shouldn't have had it dubbed at all though.

I just hope they release the original version on DVD with the edited one and that the DVD gives us the option to watch it in its original language with subtitles.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:57 am
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Korrgan wrote:
What did High Tension make on Friday, anyway?


I'm hoping for either $300,000 or $1,200,000. For second number, maybe ShowBIZ Data just don't have info...happened before. Shaun of the Dead was the movie iirc.

Btw, this weekend will most likely be below same weekend last year. Death of Hollywood is near.


Last edited by Anonymous on Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:58 am
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Korrgan wrote:
What did High Tension make on Friday, anyway?


We probably won't know until BOM puts out numbers. For right now, all we know is that it made less than $691,000.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:58 am
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Nebs wrote:

Btw, this weekend will most likely be below same weekend last year. Death of Hollywood is near.



Last year, we had 5 $20m+ grossing films for the weekend. Man, even with Mr and Mrs Smith breaking out, we're still struggling. URGH!


Next weekend, we'll be ahead. Batman is sure to open higher than Dodgeball's $30m. :)


Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:02 pm
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Box wrote:
Nebs wrote:

Btw, this weekend will most likely be below same weekend last year. Death of Hollywood is near.



Last year, we had 5 $20m+ grossing films for the weekend. Man, even with Mr and Mrs Smith breaking out, we're still struggling. URGH!
Well we had 3 appealing new openers last year that counterbalanced each other perfectly. They tried that again, but Smiths just crushed everyone.


Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:05 pm
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bleh, Sith already pretty close to being over taken by AOTC :down:

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Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:22 pm
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