That is likely at this point. I dont see superman go that high.

Charlie is saying 57m+ friday and 150m OW. Amazing way the movie has moved from utter pessimism to this insanity. I am predicting this to end up with biggest OW for the year. I think another gaming movie FNAF2 with pure theatrical will be big but this would be hard to match. Superman has the stench of DC holding it back while all MCU movies are mid. They need crossover movies with tons of crazy cameos to hit zeitgeist at this point. Avatar 3 in holidays would struggle to match A2 at this point. Wicked for good could do it but I feel it will struggle to increase that much from last movie. Family movies like Lilo and Stich and Zoo 2 will do well but I cant see them go this high for sure.

Edit: he reduced it slightly to 45/56m. Still great.

I saw there is “Chinese Minecraft” with 600 million users, but they may not be treating it as the same game in the above chart.

Charlie is now saying 125m ish OS gross.

]

I refuse to believe this will have the biggest OW of the year lolol but looks likely.

Very curious how legs will be. B+ Cinemascore.

These turnarounds are really some of my fav moments at the box office.

Margot went from Amsterdam ($15M) and Babylon ($16M) to Barbie ($636M) in 9 months.

Pixar goes from Lightyear ($118M) to Inside Out 2 ($653M) in 2 years.

Fast franchise goes from Tokyo Drift ($63M) to Fast and Furious ($155M) in 3 years in their next movie.

WB went from Joker 2 ($58M total) to Minecraft ($350M+) in 6 months.

Also, how's this for a fan bit of trivia. The director of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre just opened a movie to $150M+ this weekend?

Well then. Clearly this is an aspect of pop culture that eludes me. I must be getting old.

I think the bizarre 'detective' concept doomed it. Talking Pikachu was weird and unwanted. Plus it had the worst release date ever right after Endgame. If they'd just gone with Ash, Misty and Brock and Team Rocket and had come out a month earlier it would've easily been a $100M+ opener and births a huge new film franchise.

But they blew the load of seeing live-action Pokemon for the first time already, which was the big draw, so any further attempt will be a struggle. A waste.

Wade Wilson mode as Pikachu is also one of the most forced things I can think of

Sat is looking like a number close to 60m as well. if it can go slightly over it keeps Deathly Hallows OW in play. Must be among the craziest OW in a while. Numbers kept going up with every tracking. This beating IO2 OW was not something I expected and that had insane growth in SUMMER.

OS is also looking like 140m+ according to Charlie. This is going for 1B WW at this point.

Also this is one of the rare occasion Marks was so off on early call for Germany OW. He predicted 650K and now Charlie thinks it can do 950K.

The revenge of Jared Leto when Tron: Ares breaks out?

Leto is a bonafied B.O poison.

So now that Minecraft is more looking at the $150-160M range, here are the top OWs adjusted for first films:

19 Spider-Man $230,267,394
24 The Hunger Games $223,233,000
42 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $185,842,602
48 Deadpool $178,355,010
52 Barbie $175,087,514
54 Alice in Wonderland $171,418,967
65 It $160,263,484
66 Iron Man $160,005,355
70 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $158,164,497

To put things into perspective, Minecraft is looking at an It / Iron Man / Mario Bros type opening. To get within < 20% admissions of HP1 would be outstanding. It could become one of the top 10 highly attended OWs adjusted of all time for first films. I took out Suicide Squad from this list since felt like a spinoff.

I also think Minecraft has so become a zeitgeist film it will have semi decent legs since its now a have to watch to stay in the know movie.

And oh man would a Hunger Games reunion with Katniss do well in about a decade. Big nostalgia and what massive box office tallies.

It is another one that looks completely ridiculous in adjusted numbers.

I remember feeling like THG was the most impressive OW ever at the time (give or take The Passion, possibly) so that makes sense.

Yeah it shows the hunger game mainstream appeal was the concept was novel of kids killing each other.

Once that went away by part 3 the franchise crashed.

Even so the constant box office returns of Hunger Game or Twilight movies is something studios would kill for today.

I think its beating Barbie OW. Sat looks like 60m. I am expecting tons of spillover business tomorrow.

120 mil would have seemed huge a week ago for 3 days let alone 2

Since the Minecraft fans are being interactive and yelling lines it could have rewatch value.

... wow. I guess Barbie would have went higher since Oppenheimer had Imax but this potentially doing more is really insane.

Jack Black may have 7 $300M+ films over a 10 year period and possibly 4 $400M+ films over 4 years:

Jumanji (2017), Jumanji 2 (2019), Super Mario (2023), Minecraft (2025).

And he's got Super Mario 2 (2026) AND Jumanji 3 (2026). Probably a Minecraft 2 in 2027 or 2028 too seems all but guaranteed.

This doesn't even include the KFP franchise (KF3/KF4) which are big globally. So 6 $500M+ global hits across 4 franchises released already from 2016-2025 and likely at least another 3 in the next 2 years for 9 $500M+ hits from 2016-2027 as a guestimate.

And 4 franchises across 3 different studios (WB, Universal and Sony).

It seems he has taken the role of Chris Pratt (GOTG 1-3, JP 4-6, Super Mario 1, Lego Movie). His Lego, GOTG 1 and JW run of 3 $250M+ films in 16 months across 3 different franchises was pretty impressive.

Charlie saying Minecraft around 165 which is absolutely insane!

The kids are loving this movie. I swear half the audience shouted out "CHICKEN JOCKEY!" when Jack Black was in the ring.

Look at this box office sensation bringing out the KJ vets.

$160M+ OW injects much needed life into the market after an atrocious March. Reminds me of the surprise I had when the Mario OW exceeded my expectations. Hoping the retaliatory tariff wars don’t dampen its OS performance.

Mother of god. Maybe one of the most bizarre openings ever.