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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm
Posts: 3900
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 Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope trixie wrote: bl1222 wrote: Father Figures should've released on December 8 and Downsizing should've gone limited just like Matt Damon's 2012 flop, Promised Land.
Also, Pitch Perfect 3 would've done much higher business with a better and less dark storyline like Fat Amy and Bumper getting married (their chemistry from the first two movies were my favorite storyline!!). Adam Devine and Ben Platt (two of the best characters and great scene stealers) being absent from the movie were one of the reasons why it underperformed.
As for The Post, it did pretty well in limited release. WOM will be key to its success but if MOTOE can make it to $100M, I'm sure TP can make it too. I doubt opening Father Figures on Dec. 8 would have made any difference. It's a dump, plain and simple. If they really wanted it to succeed they would have released it during a much less crowded time frame like January. Jumanji is the only new release that is making noise, clear 2nd choice for moviegoers after Last Jedi, i expect to pass 200m+. Pitch Perfect 3 probably should have opened during the spring/summer. It seems out of place. The Greatest Showman has no awards buzz, and its hard for musicals to break out without it. Downsizing has a similar problem, and it cost too much. These type of adult fare just doesn't make that much anymore and it has to have great reviews in order to stand out from the pack. FF would have flopped in any other release date because of those atrociously reviews
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| Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:56 pm |
 
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope Wonder Wheel has performed atrociously. Far worse than the usual run of a tepidly received Woody Allen film (Irrational Man, for example, or You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger) and an enormous drop from last year's similar Café Society.
And I feel Amazon gave it a relatively hefty advertising push.
_________________   1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:21 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope David wrote: Wonder Wheel has performed atrociously. Far worse than the usual run of a tepidly received Woody Allen film (Irrational Man, for example, or You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger) and an enormous drop from last year's similar Café Society.
And I feel Amazon gave it a relatively hefty advertising push. There's way too much competition right now with awards films that are actually well-reviewed. This would have fared better in spring or summer.
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:57 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12197
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope As gigantic as Jumanji will be this holidays, it's still quite telling that it's not even in Robin Williams' top ten films. It's translated well to a re-imagining but the original barely made $100 m. I do expect a flood of 90's comedies getting re-booted, so Mrs. Doubtfire shouldn't be too far away...
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 3:39 am |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am
Posts: 1742
Location: Calisota
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope Jack Sparrow wrote: RO did $64m 3-day and $96m 4-day. TLJ running really close to this mark. My sub-$650m projection is looking good. Your sub-650M prediction has no reasonable chance of being correct. _________________
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:59 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope Realistically sub-$650m is not happening but that's my bullish prediction
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:29 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68391
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope It's not even that bullish. I bet it makes less than $650m. Even following the legs of TFA, with a ten-day total of just $365m, it would wind up with $633m.
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:37 am |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm
Posts: 3900
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope TLJ and Jumanji were severely underestimated last night according to rth and Deadline. www.deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-dway ... 202230784/
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 12:45 pm |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm
Posts: 11627
Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope We shall see
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 12:51 pm |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm
Posts: 3900
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope Darth Indiana Bond wrote: We shall see Deadline and RTH from BOT confirmed they were both underestimated on Xmas eve. We shall see is now like, "It did happen". Stay positive. 
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 12:58 pm |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm
Posts: 3900
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope Magnus wrote: They were but Deadlone 32m projection for TLJ isn’t good if true then as that would be under a 100% increase with the revised Sunday. I agree it wouldn't be good. It better be more like $35-40M instead of just $32M. On the bright side, Jumanji is performing like Sing instead of Passengers. Good reviews and those who aren't or were disappointed with TLJ definitely helped it. The Rock + Kevin Hart reunited for this one after successfully starring in last year's comedy hit, Central intelligence. $200M is totally locked. It might have a chance to beat Sing at this point domestically. January is looking weaker than last year aside from The Post, Paddington 2 and Insidious 4.
Last edited by bl1222 on Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:18 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope The new estimates coming from BOR's Twitter are all 2-8% up from initial estimates, so that seems really promising - it would mean that almost everything had a better Christmas Eve hold than the films of 2006. I'll be curious to see what that means for holds going forward...
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:31 pm |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am
Posts: 1742
Location: Calisota
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope Jack Sparrow wrote: Realistically sub-$650m is not happening but that's my bullish prediction You said it was looking good, yet realistically it's not happening. _________________
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| Mon Dec 25, 2017 2:04 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope Omni wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: Realistically sub-$650m is not happening but that's my bullish prediction You said it was looking good, yet realistically it's not happening. Well bullish predictions have to find a way to be good. It's not that TLJ can post huge numbers day after day and still do only $650m.
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| Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:12 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope Magnus wrote: Omni wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: Realistically sub-$650m is not happening but that's my bullish prediction You said it was looking good, yet realistically it's not happening. Assuming its a 435m by end of tomorrow....it would have to outpace RO less than 12% to finish below 650m, which seems unlikely given its Tuesday will be way ahead of RO second Tuesday.So yeah, it’ll break 650m. But 700m is still TBD. I don't think that's true as it has been running very very close to RO and also remember the Wednesday drop it will see. Eventually the 10 day boost which I predicted is looking to be optimistic.
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| Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:18 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15573
Location: Everywhere
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope Keep in mind that like TPM, TFA benefited from the wide 4 quadrant audience. TPM held very well even without good WOM. Last time the prequels became dramatically more frontloaded regardless of WOM, so this should be expected.
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| Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:55 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Weekend Estimates - No New Hope That's a good point and these movies are December outliers
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| Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:34 pm |
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