Fair point, Spider-Man's more deserving than them for sure, but it would be a lot better to have a GREAT movie take that record for once, not just a fairly good one. Right now it looks like Sith's shaping up to be a great movie and the first in a while to be inevitably huge, and if this new movie really is a return to the glory days then perhaps the box office might reflect that. [-o<

The hype is certainly there, it's just a question of whether its possible with thursday sucking up a fair chunk of the die hard audience.

Spider-Man was very much worthy of the #1 opening. By the way ROTJ held the record too and was the first movie to gross over $20 million for the Friday to Sunday period.

150 Million is not too much for a film like this that's being heavily praised and a movie that by all accounts, is the REAL EPISODE I to the fans.. I think the numbers after this weekend will be simply staggering and records will be broken including SPIDERMAN's....

Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be a huge chunk of the diehard audience, not just Thursday..

And those die hard fans will be seeing 3 or 4 times atleast.

Box, don't get too caught up in trends in an ever changing marketplace. Numbers are fine and all, but trying to judge today's market by what happened in 2002 or 2003 isn't exactly the best way to go, but I'm going to humor you with a few numbers of my own.

In 2002, Attack of the Clones opened in 3161 theaters, and adjusted for inflation, it still pulled in $118,512,512, while in direct competition with a movie targeting the same demographic called Spider-Man, which grossed roughly $50M on that same weekend, adjusted for inflation. We don't have a Spider-Man this year. We don't even have any franchise type movies out that are targeting the same group. Sith will surely open in 600-800 more theaters, if not, more. The movie going audience, unlike 2002 when they had been flocking to see Spider-man for weeks, haven't had a movie to flock to until now. A $50M dollar grosser was sucking the audience potential away, and remember, AOTC was released at a time when frontloading as we know it today was new, and so were releases that were on Thursday. Roughly $3.87M (adjusted) was earned by Spidey the day Clones was released, $13M was earned it's first Friday, $22M it's first Saturday, and $14.5M it's first Sunday. I think people really don't understand exactly how significant that was, especially since this was a film of the exact target audience, and not something else. It still managed almost $120M under those conditions.

Sith isn't operating under those conditions. Not at all, and this is the movie everyone has been waiting for. This is the payoff. Even the haters will be out in full force, just to watch it so they can hate it. Moviegoers are waiting for something. They are looking for an excuse. They aren't used to waiting this long. That excuse arrives on May 19th.

Mav, I think the film is fully capable of passing $150m in 4 days, in the same way that Shrek 2 was capable of grossing $441m domestically. Films have broken out completely and raked in the dough previously, so I certainly wouldn't be shocked.

Having said that, I think that the audience from the OT will probably not rush out a la the younger audience, but wait for Memorial Day Weekend. I mean, they are middle-aged now (or closing in on it), and many have kids. It would make more sense for them to wait it out until the holidays so as to watch it with their kids.

I dunno, we'll see. I sure wouldn't mind a $150m 4-day gross. And, I wouldn't mind for it to beat Shrek 2. How that pile of garbage made it to $441m, only Satan and Katzenberg know.

They weren't enough to keep Clones grossing steadily after the thursday opening, and Sith will be more frontloaded that the last because of the added hype and increased theatre count.

And scottb, do you honestly think there will be enough people seeing it 3 or 4 times each during the first four days to launch Sith into the record books? They represent a minute percentage of the general moviegoing public. Mulitple viewings are likely for many people, but I don't know about lots of people rushing out to see it again and again straight away. Expect decent legs if anything, closer maybe to TPM (though not as strong considering the changed marketplace) than Clones.

you can add BJ to the list


never under estimate the power of the dark side

You know, and I'm sure BKB, who's in his 30's like me would agree, as would jb007, who's also in his 30's, that group will be out in full force. It's amazing just how many older people rush to see Star Wars. I think it probably fills some need in our lives to be younger again. Those with kids won't wait until next weekend when this weekend is coming up. I'll be taking my brother's son and his best friend to the midnight showing, and they are both skipping school the next day. It probably won't be the only time the 3 of us see it this weekend, and there will be some far exceeding that number of times. They definitely wouldn't have to wait for next weekend before they could take their kids. Kids haven't had a movie yet, and I don't think parents are going to make them wait.

The teens and young adults are chomping at the bit for some special FX and explosions, you can bet on it. The stars are lining up for a very memorable opening that we won't be forgetting anytime soon, especially with the reviews that will be helping to sway any doubting Thomases that were on the fence.

I wanted to throw another number out there concerning the R rated Matrix Reloaded. If you adjusted it's opening, it would be at roughly $142.5M, and that's with X2, targeting many of that same audience, raking in almost 18 1/2 million, adjusted for inflation.

Are you guys starting to see exactly what I'm talking about?

Maybe, but I'd guess not. I'm at 140m. I don't expect it to get more then 2.2 times the 4 day opening though. Shrek's record for the biggest day should stand, although not by much IMO. Batman Begins might break that one. :wink:

Sure, sure. :razz:

It will be quite frontloaded, no doubt about that, and I expect about 300m. :wink:

I'm in. It will have over 150 milion after Sunday

YES.. There will definitely be enough people seeing this multiple times in the first 4 days.. This is a given and not only that, but I'm predicting right now that SITH remains #1 on the box office weekend chart until BATMAN comes out.. That's right, I'm predicting this movie to pretty much destroy anything that comes in it's path and get lost in the shuffle for at least a month..

Top 12 in 2004: $163,354,561 (Shrek 2 $108m, Troy $24m, Van Helsing $10.6m)
Top 12 in 2003: $154,619,854 (Matrix Reloaded $92m, Daddy Day Care $19m, X-Men 2 $18m)
Top 12 in 2002: $162,632,040 (AOTC $80m, Spider-Man $45m, Unfaithful $10m)

So, let's just say that top 12 in 2005 will gross around $157m.

Monster-In-Law $13m
Kicking & Screaming $12m
Unleashed $5m
Kingdom of Heaven $5m
Crash $5m
House of Wax $3m
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $2.2m
The Interpreter $2.1m
XXX: State of the Union $1m
Mindhunters $1m
Sahara $1m
----------
Total $50.3m

And that leaves Episode III with $106.7m, add to that opening day of around $45m, and we have 4-day gross over $150m...so I'm in. :-)

Though, a bit afraid as you Mav are on the roll recently, and I disagreed with all your choices, and now if I agree, this time you might fail...

I'm in.

I'm in, but not because "you're on a roll", Mav. I'm already anticipating a great weekend ahead. =D>

I'm anticipating the best weekend in years!

Im in. It will make $150m by the end of Sunday,

This film is a phenomenon. This is the Star Wars film everyone has been waiting for. No competition. No Spidey. Not even a Mummy. This will dominate like no film has dominated in years, think back to The Lost World in 1997.

Amen and we will be there memorial weekend also.

Add me to the list Mav.

Although I think it is going to be very very very close, I do not think that Sith will make it to 150 by the end of the weekend.l I think it is going to come up just short, literally by about 500,000 dollars.

149.5 #-o

I say theres no point to this thread unless some bets are put in place?

what say you Yes-sayers and naysayers.

If ROTS does make more than 150 million dollars, I will change my avatar to
"I was Pwned by Maverikk for 1 week"

how bout making him a mod.