Given an Avatar-like weekend it will do $106.46m but SW7 didn't hold as good as Avatar last weekend so I don't see it happening this weekend as well.

Fri - +55.5% - $35.54m
Sat - -3% - $34.47m
Sun - -35% - $22.41m

Weekend - $92.32m

Why is it going to drop on Saturday, exactly?

because pessimism reigns supreme

I actually took Sherlock Holmes's drop from 2009's weekend but I did see a lot of movies increased that weekend so it could slightly increase and make $94m.



Its pressimism because I predicted $90m+ weekend? Ok....

I think it will drop too much on Sunday

Based on the Friday estimate, it would need a 12% increase Saturday and 30% drop Sunday to hit 100M. That's not impossible. However, I think a 5% increase and 35% drop is far more likely. That would be just over 94M.

All that really matters is the biggest January weekend on record, beating a film that stomped the record just last year.

I don't think 35% drop on Sunday is realistic as Avatar was an outlier that Sunday (as it was throughout its run). Most other films dropped 50% or more due to NFL, and Star Wars hasn't distinguished itself from others like Avatar had, so I think it will follow more the norm instead of being another exception.

I would hate to see anything above 40% drop on Sunday

That is certainly a possibility. Looking at movietickets.com today, I don't think SW is even going to increase today, or if it does, it will be less than what the other films do. It's % has slowly dropped all day. As for Sunday, a drop closer to 40% is actually likely. However, it is the big movie out right now and Sunday is the last day of the holidays for most people. I was thinking it could get a bump from that.

While I do agree that it is "the" movie to watch now but it is for sure going to be accessible throughout the whole January so I don't see it getting a bump on Sunday. Plus by now I see a large portion of repeat viewings happening as well which might hinder its Sunday.

As I mentioned earlier Saturday increase wasn't always confirmed. It might stay even but I think we might see a slight decrease today and about 35-40% drop on Sunday (maybe more).

Blockbuster pace/frontloading probably.

Club fail.

It did stay relatively flat on Saturday, I mean 0.1% is hardly a decrease. But people thinking it will see an increase were just too optimistic. Even Avatar didn't increase much on this Saturday.