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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40611
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 Re: December 18-20 predictions Over 250 mil
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:56 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23386
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Im thinking $220m+ is very likely now. I still think December will dispurse the $$ over the first few weeks but that only means it will beat Avatar - which it will. The hype is insane. The marketing is awesome. Just today i passed this on my way across town - dont think ive seen 3 billboards for the same film on the same block of buildings...  I'm sold! _________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:45 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: December 18-20 predictions An opening under AOU would be a surprise to me
_________________The Dark Prince 
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:41 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: December 18-20 predictions O wrote: 1 Star Wars $261.1 m
SW Ep. 3 adjusts to $206,157,600 over its first 4 days today. Considering that followed the worst performing SW film I think this is very achievable. Avengers adjusts now to $213 m, and Jurassic World did $208 m but I still feel there's quite a bit of room to go even in December.
I'm going to go with $261.1 m, which is a bit higher than the 22% increase on the OW record jump Avengers made over HP7 Pt. 2. I feel like the market has grown a lot and think this is a rare pop culture event that everyone is going to want to see OW due to FOMO despite being December. People won't be able to go to a holiday party without seeing SW in a lot of cases. Cross demographic appeal to every demographic and one of the weakest November box office's in the past 20 years in terms of anticipated movies only helps.
2) Sisters $28 m
Despite the Star Wars monster on the horizon, a hotly anticipated movie can still do really well against a pop culture giant. Mamma Mia comes to mind against The Dark Knight, adjusting today to $32.2 m. Sisters trailers are getting great reception every time that I can't see this going under Baby Mama adjusted for inflation even in December as the starpower of Fey/Poehler has gone up significantly since then. At the highest level, What Woman Want would adjust today to $52 m. But I feel like more people will watch this than J Lo's MIM ($26.9 m adjusted). I feel like next weekend will be a one off weekend that everyone "has to go to the movies" and Sisters is going to get a significant spillover effect as well. Throwing it out there now, Sisters will have a chance at $160 m+ and pull a Meet The Fockers type run with any OW over $30 m. Also not betting against Universal this year. They clearly must have indicators that there was a high likelihood of success counterprogramming with Star Wars or they would have budged on this one.
3 Alvin $16 m
You have to give it to this franchise, it seems to survive a lot longer than anyone thought it would. The last one adjusts to $23-24 m OW. Despite Star Wars, this will probably see some solid business due to underwhelming showings of other family films. The biggest weekend ever, overall, stands at $266 million for the Top 12 and you expect the three openers to bring in $300 million this weekend?! _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:48 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: December 18-20 predictions The reason SW3 opened that high, is because it was the "last" movie in the series. And it was the introduction of Vader.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:19 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: December 18-20 predictions ROTS if it opened on a three day likely would have opened at Sm3/TA/TDk levels in attendance I think.
Think about it almost beat SM1 opening weekend record and blew off 50 million dollars of steam beforehand.
If you adjust ROTS 4-day gross after 3D and inflation its actually very close to TA and TDK.
Of course unlike those two films it did not keep up that pace.
_________________The Dark Prince
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:12 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Chippy wrote: The reason SW3 opened that high, is because it was the "last" movie in the series. And it was the introduction of Vader. And yet after two underwhelming prequels in a row, that prospect seemed far less exciting than finally seeing Han, Luke und Leia again. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:09 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 21607
Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Dr. Lecter wrote: Chippy wrote: The reason SW3 opened that high, is because it was the "last" movie in the series. And it was the introduction of Vader. And yet after two underwhelming prequels in a row, that prospect seemed far less exciting than finally seeing Han, Luke und Leia again. Absolutely no one skipped ROTS because Han, Luke and Leia were not in it.
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:34 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: December 18-20 predictions zwackerm wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Chippy wrote: The reason SW3 opened that high, is because it was the "last" movie in the series. And it was the introduction of Vader. And yet after two underwhelming prequels in a row, that prospect seemed far less exciting than finally seeing Han, Luke und Leia again. Absolutely no one skipped ROTS because Han, Luke and Leia were not in it. But enough people skipped it because they did not like the preceding films. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:38 pm |
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Heinrich Himmler
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 5:17 pm
Posts: 2716
Location: Berlin, Germania
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Re: December 18-20 predictions that's correct. i, for example, skipped ROTS after the atrocious AOTC.
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:40 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 21607
Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Dr. Lecter wrote: zwackerm wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Chippy wrote: The reason SW3 opened that high, is because it was the "last" movie in the series. And it was the introduction of Vader. And yet after two underwhelming prequels in a row, that prospect seemed far less exciting than finally seeing Han, Luke und Leia again. Absolutely no one skipped ROTS because Han, Luke and Leia were not in it. But enough people skipped it because they did not like the preceding films. So Revenge of the Sith had way way better WOM?
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:50 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: December 18-20 predictions It simply does not count as a preceding film and everyone realizes that. Except for you apparently.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:52 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12197
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Dr. Lecter wrote: O wrote: 1 Star Wars $261.1 m
SW Ep. 3 adjusts to $206,157,600 over its first 4 days today. Considering that followed the worst performing SW film I think this is very achievable. Avengers adjusts now to $213 m, and Jurassic World did $208 m but I still feel there's quite a bit of room to go even in December.
I'm going to go with $261.1 m, which is a bit higher than the 22% increase on the OW record jump Avengers made over HP7 Pt. 2. I feel like the market has grown a lot and think this is a rare pop culture event that everyone is going to want to see OW due to FOMO despite being December. People won't be able to go to a holiday party without seeing SW in a lot of cases. Cross demographic appeal to every demographic and one of the weakest November box office's in the past 20 years in terms of anticipated movies only helps.
2) Sisters $28 m
Despite the Star Wars monster on the horizon, a hotly anticipated movie can still do really well against a pop culture giant. Mamma Mia comes to mind against The Dark Knight, adjusting today to $32.2 m. Sisters trailers are getting great reception every time that I can't see this going under Baby Mama adjusted for inflation even in December as the starpower of Fey/Poehler has gone up significantly since then. At the highest level, What Woman Want would adjust today to $52 m. But I feel like more people will watch this than J Lo's MIM ($26.9 m adjusted). I feel like next weekend will be a one off weekend that everyone "has to go to the movies" and Sisters is going to get a significant spillover effect as well. Throwing it out there now, Sisters will have a chance at $160 m+ and pull a Meet The Fockers type run with any OW over $30 m. Also not betting against Universal this year. They clearly must have indicators that there was a high likelihood of success counterprogramming with Star Wars or they would have budged on this one.
3 Alvin $16 m
You have to give it to this franchise, it seems to survive a lot longer than anyone thought it would. The last one adjusts to $23-24 m OW. Despite Star Wars, this will probably see some solid business due to underwhelming showings of other family films. The biggest weekend ever, overall, stands at $266 million for the Top 12 and you expect the three openers to bring in $300 million this weekend?! Yes! $264 m + has been done 6 times adjusted for inflation so I definitely think the market can expand as all three films go for different demographics though SW will pull in 99% of everyone else.
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:50 pm |
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Bishop King
Star Trek XI
Joined: Sun May 19, 2013 2:05 pm
Posts: 354
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Re: December 18-20 predictions What Magnus said.
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:06 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Star Wars - $241M
Sisters - $14M
Alvin - $12M
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:17 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Well in retrospect if all the prequels were as good as ROTS, then ROTS would have been an even bigger hit.
However in retrospect ROTS was a huge hit ,500 million adjusted these days.
_________________The Dark Prince
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:29 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: December 18-20 predictions 141m
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:39 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: December 18-20 predictions I think Excel needs a hug.
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| Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:02 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: December 18-20 predictions The Dark Shape wrote: I think Excel needs a hug.   _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:06 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: December 18-20 predictions _________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:09 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35249
Location: Minnesota
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Re: December 18-20 predictions The biggest December opener is The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey with 84.6 Million. It's much harder to get huge opening grosses so close to Christmas. Usually the gross is more spread out over the Christmas break period. Obviously the movie will be huge, but some of these predictions I just don't see happening.
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS - 200.1 Million
SISTERS - 19.93 Million
ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP - 8.85 Million
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| Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:50 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Star Wars - $183m (sticking with my predictions from other thread)
Sisters - $18m
Alvin - $17m
Chipmunks survived Avatar so I think they will do good this time as well. If SW is going to open that huge I am sure there will be some spillover business with families.
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| Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:52 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Any time, for the rest of eternity, when you claim that you are a good box-office predictor, I will hold this up. It is one thing to be wrong early on - like I was - but to simply refuse to see the facts a few days before the opening is mindblowingly silly. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:56 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: December 18-20 predictions Star Wars - $215m
Alvin & The Chipmunks - $13m
Sisters - $10m
_________________
Making Predictions Great Again!
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| Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:58 am |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11035
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Re: December 18-20 predictions STAR WARS TFA 195m
Alvin 14
Sisters 11
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| Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:35 am |
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