Smith hasn't starred in an original film in almost 7 years. The marketing for Focus leaves a lot to be desired, and the plot isn't super strong, but it will be received well and should open over $30 mil, and as I said, even $35 mil.

First official trailer has over 11M views on Youtube, it's a solid #28 (up 20 from last week) on the Movie Meter, pacing for 20K+ Tweets the last 48 hours, and though the film does look generic, Smith's long absence in an original film should work in his favor. $35m OW wouldn't surprise me, either.

Birdman, Still Alice and Whiplash are all opening here this weekend.

Focus- 23m Apparently there has been lots of marketing but I think the tone is confused. Is this a comedy? is this romance? is this a thriller? Yeah this is the first Will Smith vehicle in a long while but he should have came with something grander. Im not sensing any real hype and I wouldn't be surprised with a sub-20m opening.

The Lazarus Effect-12m (there hasnt been that many horror films in the market, that should help this somewhat)

Isn't After Earth considered an original film?

That wasn't really his movie though. He was hardly in it. Just because they pushed him in the marketing.

After Earth was released as a Will Smith vehicle, and to general audiences, I think that's what matters. So I don't think anyone will see a Focus ad and say "Gee, I've not seen that Will Smith fella in over 6 years. I think I'll give that Focus a look-see this weekend". But I definitely feel that After Earth has damaged the Smith brand, so it definitely registered as a Will Smith mistake.

Focus getting mixed reviews so far but even the negative ones don't say it's a terrible film. A couple of the critics really enjoyed it.

I 100% disagree. It was always a Jaden Smith movie. With the added bonus of some Will Smith. Hell, I don't think it makes over $40 mil without Will in it, let alone the $60 mil it made.

Yeah, After Earth was all Jaden.

I'd say if it finishes above Ocean's 12's 55% it will be just fine.

Focus is definitely looking like it will be a crossover hit for several demos. I thought 'the death of male starpower' would be the story this weekend, but it might just turn into 'Will Smith is back!'.

I don't think Jaden and Will are that easily separated in the eyes of the general public. As I said, the Smith brand was hurt by After Earth, and people were well aware that it was a Will Smith film. He shared 50% of every poster and trailer. I don't see how that can be a Jaden film. But it's semantics anyway. The outcome is the same; Focus won't have the "Oh my God, I must see Will Smith" effect.

I really enjoyed Focus. Hope it does well.

Focus is #3 on movietickets.com, good sign.

If Focus and Lazerus can combine to $45m it would keep the weekend reasonably strong (although would be slightly below last year).

Weekend Predictions for Feb 27-Mar 1
1. (N) Focus (Warner Bros.)- 21.0 million, NEW, No theater count or average available, 50 million budget, Week 1, 21.0 million to date
2. (N) The Lazarus Effect (Relativity)- 12.5 million, NEW, No theater count or average available, 5 million budget, Week 1, 12.5 million to date
3. (2) Kingsman: The Secret Service (Fox)- 11.5 million, -37%, No theater count or average available, 81 million budget, Week 3, 85.5 million to date
4. (1) Fifty Shades of Grey (Universal)- 10.9 million, -51%, No theater count or average available, 40 million budget, Week 3, 147.8 million to date
5. (3) The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (Paramount)- 10.0 million, -40%, No theater count or average available, 74 million budget, Week 4, 139.0 million to date
6. (4) McFarland, USA (Buena Vista)- 7.5 million, -32%, No theater count or average available, 17 million budget, Week 2, 21.6 million to date
7. (6) American Sniper (Warner Bros.)- 6.6 million, -35%, No theater count or average available, 59 million budget, Week 10, 330.0 million to date
8. (5) The DUFF (Lionsgate)- 6.2 million, -43%, No theater count or average available, 9 million budget, Week 2, 19.1 million to date
9. (7) Hot Tub Time Machine 2 (Paramount)- 3.1 million, -49%, No theater count or average available, 14 million budget, Week 2, 11.0 million to date
10. (11) Still Alice (Sony Classics)- 2.6 million, +20%, No theater count or average available, 5 million budget, Week 7, 12.0 million to date

Zwackerm you need to take it easy dude.
You still a rookie mate.

Youtube:
Focus: 13.4m
LE: 3.1m

Predictions:
Focus: 37.5m (2.8)
LE: 7.8m (2.5)

I'm not really sure on focus, but it seems strong.

zwackerm's signature quote is pretty good, though.

Fandango quiet this week, all but affirming Chappie won't reach Elysium levels. The marketing is a miss and will be interesting to see if that's all they could do with it.

Sony only expecting $15-16m for Chappie. Unfinished Business looks DOA with expectations at $5-6m.

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-o ... 01446090/#

I think they're lowballing due to the market being on a downswing heading into Cinderella.

I'm not saying it won't open that low... but it should at least get to $20+ mil.

Reviews for Chappie and Unfinished Business are, not surprisingly, pretty poor. If people listen to reviews I could actually see Chappie doing low teens.

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=76843&start=25

People do realize this is last week's thread?