Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:36 am Posts: 13299 Location: Vienna
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
In.
Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:53 pm
Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48678 Location: Arlington, VA
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
I don't see why it couldn't do 450. The first movie was really well received, Catching Fire is arguably the best of the series, and Lawrence has morphed into a superstar over the last year.
And it'll have the holiday boost too.
Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:57 pm
Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25433 Location: Classified
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
I still think this will be more like Potter than Twilight. -$420M for now until I see proof that the first half of the movie won't be a total bore.
I will, however, concede it the #1 spot of the year unless Trek picks up its marketing. Very disappointed in it so far.
I still think this will be more like Potter than Twilight. -$420M for now until I see proof that the first half of the movie won't be a total bore.
I will, however, concede it the #1 spot of the year unless Trek picks up its marketing. Very disappointed in it so far.
The first potter film was mediocre, as was its first sequel, that is not he case with THG, and Catching Fire will no doubt, based upon what has been release so far, improve from the points the book got wrong. And Trek will clear 400m without breaking a sweat.
I think this will stay flat unless this has a interesting hook like part 1...
I just think people have to remember THG attracted many males who were attracted to the concept... Some found the film okay but realize its just a love story... If they still see this love story is part of a grand premise they will come back and allow the film to as well or better.
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21904 Location: Walking around somewhere
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
Out
I'm seeing 380 million off a 165 opening. The big problem is that even with the 5day weekend, it's going to drop 60% two weeks in a row. That's pretty standard for the book films that have Thanksgiving in the 2nd week. After that, competition starts getting very big, unlike the first which had 6 weeks to itself.
Also, nothing is coming close to Potter's OD for a while, maybe HG 3 part 2 if the quality remains solid (But by that time SW or Avengers 2 will have already passed it)
Final note, in the last 10 years, the highest opening film of the year has always been in the summer. The only one to do it was New Moon, but that's only because Transformers opened on a Wednesday.
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Tue May 07, 2013 12:33 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68388
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
BJ wrote:
OUT Magnus BMP Algren Keyser Soze Flava'd vs The World Mannyisthebest Jack Sparrow
Coincidentally all the cool people.
Not Jack Sparrow, though.
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Tue May 07, 2013 12:59 am
DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
780m
Seriously though, I don't see how it can fail to reach 450m.
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Sun Jul 07, 2013 10:57 pm
Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am Posts: 6245
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
Kinda seems like an Star Trek II situation no? First one got all this hype from marketing and background and made the nerdy cool, but the second one just kinda meanders, doesn't have the same rush value or point to it? It kinda seems geeky again? Idk this doesn't seem impossible but it doesn't seem highly probable as it did when HG opened.
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Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:34 am
Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
Magnus wrote:
HG and ST are not comparable at all really.
The question really is whether HG maximized its potential already as a franchise. Generally you think that the first sequel has room for improvement but when you max out like HG did its hard to see more room.
450m would essentially be an increase similar to what Two Towers had over FOTR. It's attainable but I'm not buying it. My guess right now is that it essentially matches HG admissions, but it will have a 20 months of inflation in its favor and a higher IMAX percentage. That puts it at about 425m I think.
You don't think that the attention Jennifer Lawrence has received over the last year will help the film to tap into the kind of audiences the first didn't get to in theatres?
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November looks strong with Thor 2 and Frozen, and the Hobbit 2 will probably cut its legs in December
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Mon Jul 08, 2013 10:36 am
Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
Re: The Hunger Games - Catching Fire 450m+ Club
Magnus wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
You don't think that the attention Jennifer Lawrence has received over the last year will help the film to tap into the kind of audiences the first didn't get to in theatres?
Is there really that many people who fell in love with JL last year and didn't see HG and would be willing to see CF?
Of course all sequels lose SOME audiences (I bet even The Dark Knight lost SOME after Batman Begins). The queation is just whether it'll gain more than it'll lose.
And to answer your question - I think some who fell in love with JL after Silver Linings Playbook or even some whose attention he just caught with Silver Linings Playbook, might have checked out The Hunger Games afterwards. Her Oscar might hev given more credibility to that film that I am sure some audiences just shrugged off as another Twilight-wannabe beforehand. I don't think that's unreasonable thinking.
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Also, you're saying it won't do it because there are a lot of people that don't go to the theaters to see movies.
Also, there are a lot of people that don't go to restaurants to eat food.
And there are a lot of people that don't do other things.
What kind of ridiculous argument is that? You could literally use that "argument" for every movie. "Avengers 2 won't make $500 mil because some people don't go to the theater to see movies"
Ta da.
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