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 August 19-21 Predictions 
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Priest wasn't even marketed as a vampire film, so it is a bad example. True Blood is nothing like twilight. The vamps are more violent like shape said.


Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:24 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
That goes with the sex. You can do things on HBO that you can't do with a PG-13 film. The core story and romance angle is the same, even if they've veered off in different directions appropriate to their medium. The point being that vampires are now sex appeal rather than monsters.


Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:14 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
They've been that way since Anne Rice and Buffy, no? 30 Days of Night still did $40m, and it wasn't nearly as teen-friendly as Fright Night.


Sun Aug 14, 2011 5:00 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
RS: [CONAN] high teens [SPYK4] mid-to-high teens [FRNIT] mid-to-low teens [1DAY] low double digits


Posted by: TheWeekendWarrior on Aug 14, 16:42

[CLMBA] low teens

[APO18] mid-teens (4 day)

[SHK3D] low 20s (4 day)

[AFRAD] mid teens

[BTBAS] mid-to-high single digits (no Warrior or Contagion though)

No MIBRO but they seem to imply it will make $18 million total. Other tracking has it doing better than the other two movies that weekend and all the movies over Labor Day weekend so obviously something isn't right there.


Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:27 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
No way One Day opens that high.

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Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:29 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
No way Conan or Shark Night go that high, either.


Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:50 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
I would love that for One Day.


Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:50 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
That number for Shark Knight is very suprising. I actually find it really hard to believe it will have an opening as big as Transporter 2 considering the terrible marketing so far. Not since Deep Blue Sea has a B creature feature opened to respectable numbers. Also I have noticed Fright Night has been on a consistant decrease each week which isn't too promising. I just can't see it breaking out anymore.


Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:51 pm
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SO FETCH!
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Magnus wrote:
Conan is not breaking 15m.


CONAN IS BREAKING 15 MILLION


Sun Aug 14, 2011 11:08 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Boxofficemojo polls for both Conan and Fright Night are pretty awful too. Atleast alot worse than FD5 and even 30 Minutes Or Less.


Sun Aug 14, 2011 11:12 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
What an odd time to release Fright Night. It would likely make more in October.


Sun Aug 14, 2011 11:27 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Can we dispel this 'October helps horror movies' myth please? One day in October helps. Halloween. But that's negated because the drop after is harsher.


Mon Aug 15, 2011 12:13 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
That goes with the sex. You can do things on HBO that you can't do with a PG-13 film. The core story and romance angle is the same, even if they've veered off in different directions appropriate to their medium. The point being that vampires are now sex appeal rather than monsters.


The first vampire, Dracula, was very appealing to women. Vampires more have a double edged coin of monster and sex appeal.


Mon Aug 15, 2011 12:32 am
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
The Dracula of the Stoker novel isn't sexy. The physical descriptions provided would hardly have women all abuzz. The great Francis Ford Coppola film, which purported to be faithful and was in comparison to most other Dracula movies, hugely dialed up the sex appeal/tragic brooding sexy antihero angle, no doubt because it was made well into the Anne Rice era.

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Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:00 am
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Fright Night $15M
Conan $14.5M
Spy Kids 4 $10M
One Day $8M

I have 'The Help' winning the weekend, and 'Rise of the Planet of the Apes' #2.


Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:56 am
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
If Conan opens higher than Fright Night, does it mean Khal Drogo dominates Bill Compton since we are talking about vampire popularity?


Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:27 am
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
While I don't see it highly likely but there is a chance that one of the openers make $16m-$17m and win the weekend.


Mon Aug 15, 2011 12:32 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
It'd be nice to have at least one film make twenty million this weekend... Especially The Help.

But even if that doesn't happen at least there should be a continued trend towards very spread out money. I guess that's what happens in an overcrowded summer.


Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:03 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
mtc Conan 14 fright 13 spy 12 one 7 e {nm}


Posted by: notfabio on Aug 15, 11:32


Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:34 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Pathetic for Conan. That's what happens when you make a B-movie and dump it in August. They should have made an EPIC! Dammit...

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Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:38 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
It's actually really bad for all three of the main openers especially Conan. The signs just keep getting worse as far as breakout potential.


Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:42 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
But i don't care about the others. :P

Conan however has potential for an awesome fantasy spectacle. Oh, well, maybe the next iteration...

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Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:52 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Conan is the first movie in ages to only open in 3-D here. And Fright Night will only have three evening 2-D showings, but 5 3-D showings all day. Spy Kids will have three 3-D showings and three 2-D showings (two in the very early morning and one late at night).

This weekend's clusterfuck of second-tier 3-D product seriously underlines, in my opinion, how truly and irrevocably tired this gimmick has become.

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Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:37 pm
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Hmm, early reviews make Conan sound like a lot of fun.


Tue Aug 16, 2011 4:12 am
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Post Re: August 19-21 Predictions
Conan the Barbarian- $17.9m
Fright Night- $16.0m
Spy Kids: All the Time in the World- $12.3m
One Day- $5.1m

I still think Conan will come out on top.

The Help will win the weekend with $21m.

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Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:37 am
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