That... would require Libs' hypothetical book to be good and the movie to be bad, no?

You guys are reading way too much into Chippy's inane attempt at humour.

I could see FD5 maybe disappointing slightly (with an opening of around 19 Million). I think the last one left a bad taste in people's mouths, and 3D is just not a big deal anymore. Of course, the last one probably would have opened a bit higher if it didn't open with Zombie's Halloween II, which provided some competition. So that could bode well for this one. Horror fans have been under-served lately, which is typical for this type of year. So those hungry for a new genre entry might just flock to this.

FINAL DESTINATION 5 - 21.6 MILLION
THE HELP - 19.4 MILLION (3-Day)/25.1 MILLION (5-Day)
3O MINUTES OR LESS - 13.2 MILLION
GLEE 3D! - 5.4 MILLION

Final Destination 5 $28.5M
The Help $26M (5-day)
30 Minutes or Less $11.3M
Glee 3D $4M

I think GLEE will definitely be a dud. My friend loves GLEE and I have to drag her to see this concert movie.

I don't see anything funny about it at all, it looks really stupid.

30 Minutes or Less feels like an easy hit to me, yet there does seem to some serious Apatow-y comedy fatigue, so I dunno.

I think 30 Minutes or Less looks really funny, but after The Change-Up flopped I just don't know about this one. Sure this seems better but The Change-Up had bigger stars. There have already been numerous hit R-Rated comedies this summer. People might be getting sick of them.

30MOL feels like it will pull a ILYM/FSM run.

IMO 30 Minutes looks alot better than TCU from the marketing and the early reviews are really positive and while that might not help it's opening I definitely think it will have good legs. Also it will probably be the youngest skewing comedy since Hangover 2 and teens need another comedy to flock to. I wouldn't be suprised if it did RM numbers in the long run.

RS: [FDES5] low 20s, [THELP] high teens (5 day), [30MOL] mid teens, [GLELV] mid single digits {nm}

[SPYK4] 20 million (yeah, I can't see that happening)

[FRNIT] high teens

[CONAN] low-mid-teens

[CLMBA] lower teens

[AFRAD] mid teens

Final Destination 5 - 25
The Help - 20 (5-day)
30 Minutes or Less - 13
Glee 3D - who knows

Final Destination 5 - 19
The Help - 16
30 Minutes or Less - 15
Glee - 4

That is where I think these will open to. FD though big should see some fatigue from the franchise, also teens really have been missing from theaters this summer.
30MOL could open a little higher somewhere close to $20m but I don't see it breaking out with R-rated comedy fatigue surely visible.
Help can also reach $20m 5-day though I don't see a huge breakout here, probably leggy run.
Its so poor to see Glee doing so bad, I like their music but the marketing has been just awful on this one. I guess Fox didn't have faith on its prospects so they gave its money to Apes

30 minutes should skew young still they will be flocking to FD as well, so depending on WOM it can hold good next weekend.

Should be noted that we have five 3D releases over the next two weeks. With so much over saturation how can any of them truly benefit?

Would be very good for both. Really hope DARK can open in the teens.

MTC

The Help- 25 5 Day
30 Less- 18
FD5- 21
Glee- 10

With these numbers MTC is equal to RS for FD5, almost equal for 30 less and higher for The Help and Glee. Interesting numbers specially Glee.

That's much better than I expected for Glee. I'm a (pretty big) fan of the show and I have no interest in the concert movie, but there you go.

Also, yay for The Help! MTC tracking is better than RS, another good sign. I really think this will surprise some people.

This is looking real good for FD5. The last movie was pretty much on par with this one tracking wise and still brokeout. A opening over $25M is almost guranteed if it follows the pattern of the last movie.

:Comparisions:
TFD - RS High Teens / MTC 20
FD3 - No RS / MTC 23

No way Glee is opening that big. 30 minutes or Less should see an opening similar to FWD. Looks like Apes will repeat #1, unless somehow FD5 opens over $30m+. Excellent for the Help!

Who knows Glee could surprise. They are releasing the movie at the right time. The Help is a huge best stellar and could have a solid 5 day opening.

Final Destination 5 is tracking behind Final Destination 4 and the 3rd one. For it to be tracking lower than its predecessor doesn't bold well unless it somehow gets Fast Five type reviews. In this case, 30m+ seems to be out of the question based on those polls so far.
When will you see
'Final Destination 5?'
42.9% Never
21.2% On DVD/Blu/VOD
15.1% Opening Weekend
11.6% Sometime in Theaters
9.2% On TV
839 users polled.

When will you see 'Final Destination 3?'
37.8% Never
22.1% On DVD
16.3% Opening Weekend
13.7% Sometime in Theaters
10.1% On TV
1,173 users polled.

When will you see 'The Final Destination?'
39.5% Never
21.1% Opening Weekend
17.0% On DVD
14.6% Sometime in Theaters
7.8% On TV
1,647 users polled.

30 minutes or Less is tracking very well. Could it beat FD5 this weekend? It will definitely have better legs for sure. It's tracking way ahead of The Change-Up and Friends with Benefits.

When will you see
'30 Minutes or Less?'
29.8% Never
27.3% On DVD/Blu/VOD
19.8% Sometime in Theaters
15.6% Opening Weekend
7.5% On TV
799 users polled.

When will you see
'The Change-Up?'
36.2% Never
29.2% On DVD/Blu/VOD
15.0% Sometime in Theaters
10.0% On TV
9.6% Opening Weekend
1,546 users polled.

When will you see
'Friends with Benefits?'
34.6% Never
28.6% On DVD/Blu/VOD
14.6% Sometime in Theaters
12.9% Opening Weekend
9.4% On TV
1,862 users polled.

As expected for female-orientated (especially for urban films), it doesn't track well in BOM polls but they were able to open very well. Also, it helps that The Help (pun intended)'s Never Percentage is lower than EPL and it's not that behind it in OW + SIT. However, it's tracking better than the last urban film (JTB) by a long mile.
When will you see
'The Help?'
48.9% Never
23.0% On DVD/Blu/VOD
10.6% On TV
10.5% Sometime in Theaters
6.9% Opening Week
969 users polled.

When will you see
'Jumping the Broom?'
75.0% Never
11.0% On DVD/Blu/VOD
8.8% On TV
3.4% Sometime in Theaters
1.8% Opening Weekend
1,346 users polled.

When will you see 'Eat Pray Love?'
53.0% Never
18.1% On DVD/Blu/VOD
10.7% Sometime in Theaters
9.6% Opening Weekend
8.6% On TV
1,540 users polled.

No way that Glee 3D's $10m opening weekend that MTC tracked at will be in reach. It's tracking closer to Prom and even behind Fox's last tween movie, Monte Carlo. Yeah, that does show MTC's way off for this one.
When will you see
'Glee: The 3D Concert Movie?'
77.2% Never
8.9% On DVD/Blu/VOD
6.3% On TV
4.0% Opening Weekend
3.7% Sometime in Theaters
847 users polled.

When will you see
'Prom?'
73.0% Never
13.2% On DVD/Blu/VOD
6.9% On TV
4.2% Sometime in Theaters
2.7% Opening Weekend
1,035 users polled.

When will you see
'Monte Carlo?'
69.4% Never
15.3% On DVD/Blu/VOD
8.8% On TV
3.9% Sometime in Theaters
2.6% Opening Weekend
1,408 users polled.