I think it's still far out to have aggressive marketing right now. I've seen the trailer plenty of times in theaters, and some commercials here and there during playoffs and stuff. It'll definitely be more aggressive in July after Transformers.

180 mil. would be -spectacular- for this. I don't see it going so far.

I'm quite nervous for this movie.

I smell a flop

Couldn't you see a movie called "Cowboys and Aliens" becoming a pantheon, "Google 'Movie Flops'" level disaster? I can. I'm not saying it will happen, as of now I'd lean 75 mil+. But if there's a blockbuster this summer that has HOLY SHIT Poseidon numbers potential, it's Cowboys and Aliens

It's the last really fresh-looking big movie for the rest of the summer...

Very late july release and cowboy+sci fi never ever work out even with Will Smith in it

I can deffentially see the flop potential, but idk the marketing has been great so far and the trailer has been attached to alot of movies this year. Universal has honestly did their best to get it out there and hopefully it pays off, but who knows ? As of now I have no clue if it will even hit $40M OW since there are so many mixed feelings over this movie. It should be an interesting perfomance to watch.

I have always like the trailers of this one, but somehow I don't feel that with so many action movies coming out this year it will do great, maybe a very similar run to Super 8 which would be good for it. It will make more in OS markets I think where people are much more excited about these, still the release date is very skeptical even with July, it will have dying TF3, HP7 and CA as its competition.

This movie is in deep, deep trouble imo. It doesn't seem to be gaining much traction. Imo, there is the possibility that it could fail to make $100 m. I don't trust tracking on this one. I don't think it can do in the $40's opening weekend...

I think it could easily open to $40m+ though the legs won't be as great. I think Apes is getting much better marketing than this one and is looking much more appealing than this one.

35m/95m

Yeah I'm kinda not feeling it any longer. The marketing just isn't great anymore.

Had high hopes for this, but they are gone now. I agree the traction is lacking and I'm getting a real negative vibe. Our internal polling is pretty weak and I'd say a low to mid 30's OW would be likely.

I'm pretty much in the same boat, the teaser put it on my radar but the more i see the more i get a meh feeling.

Westerns historically have under-performed outside of the United States (True Grit being just the latest example http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=truegrit2010.htm ) and I'm not convinced this will be mitigated by the presence of aliens. People say there's a superhero fatigue. If that's really true, then there might very well be alien fatigue as well. And each successive trailer has gotten less and less interesting.

That said, I would love to see this (more importantly) turn out to be a great movie and then have a nice summer sleeper 45/160 run.

You have to look at it as western with sci-fi elements. It is true that pure westerns like Tombstone, True Grit, Dances with Wolves and Open Range have done really well or over expectations but not so much for sci-fi westerns. I can already name Back to the Future 3, Wild Wild West, and Serenity. Those didnt have good legs

Doesn't Avatar also count?

That would count under the genre known as 'plagiarism'

not funny

I lol'd.

Fresh?!?




It's the next Wild Wild West ($113m) & Jonah Hex ($10m) - - so I say it will perform right between their BO totals = $61.5m.

$38M opening with a $125M total.

Sadly I honestly can't see this cracking $40M OW anymore. After CA I feel like the target audeince will have been more than satisfied with big, specatcle action films and with this movie looking more and more like the wild card of the bunch probably won't convince most of the mainstream audience to pay full price. Hopefully it will atleast have a run similar to Super 8 which would yield some very solid returns.

:Final Prediction:
$35M OW/$120M DOM

Ditto what everyone else has said. Everything after the teaser from last year has been really disappointing, and while I'm still hyped for it, I just don't see a $200m grosser anymore. 45/135