Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm Posts: 11637
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
Keyser Söze wrote: BK wrote: Keyser Söze wrote: BK wrote: But isn't that drop for BOE above 50%? That isn't good either. It's not a real frontloaded movie and it's supposed to have okay WOM (or I hope at least). I was hoping for Knowing legs.
Hopefully it'll recover next week. I would like EOD to kill Avatar. at this point only movie that will kill avatar is alice. that is bcos it will take away all its imax and most of 3d screens. otherwise it is a juggernaut. no way on earth a mel movie with little buzz will affect avatar. avatar looks like the favorite to win next weekend as well. Okay, is there something wrong with you? When I say kill I mean dethrone which obviously is going to happen before Alice. Stop with all this Avatar fanboyism, I used to think you were a balanced arguer, guess not. you said kill and not dethrone. dethrone will happen, though i think it will be no:1 for couple more weeks. regarding fanboyism, its not in my all time top 10 or anything like that. i am just enjoying its run. we have not seen a run like this. plus i liked avatar more than titanic and so i am happy it is crushing titanic. Edge of Darkness could beat it. At the most though, it will be #1 for two more weeks. Valentines Day will definitely be #1 12-14. I suppose Dear John could win SB Weekend.
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Sat Jan 23, 2010 4:17 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6788
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
^^
that's what i said as well. it could potentially be no:1 for 2 more weeks. i think it is the favorite as well. valentine's day will easily win weekend after that.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sat Jan 23, 2010 4:21 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
80%+ sat increase fo sho
_________________The Force Awakens
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Sat Jan 23, 2010 4:24 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6788
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
notfabio posted this info. Quote: The storms really did massively impact the Southern California market yesterday, so expect a little stronger of a Saturday bounce
Arizona, Utah and Washington trounced numbers from most top grossing LA theatres, which, practically never happens. http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=35013
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sat Jan 23, 2010 4:25 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
Keyser Söze wrote: notfabio posted this info. Quote: The storms really did massively impact the Southern California market yesterday, so expect a little stronger of a Saturday bounce
Arizona, Utah and Washington trounced numbers from most top grossing LA theatres, which, practically never happens. http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=35013 
_________________The Force Awakens
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Sat Jan 23, 2010 4:26 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
Mojo is up!
Aside from Avatar, The Blind Side had the best drop in the top 10.
21.7% drop, though it lost 19.8% of its theaters this weekend. It's per theater average only dropped 2.4%. Once it passes Twister, it will be WB's 5th biggest original film ever (behind HP1, Batman 1, The Hangover, and I Am Legend).
Looks to get to $240 m, even before Oscar nods are announced. This will be its tenth week in the top 10.
Sherlock Holmes also held quite well this weekend! It's Complicated looks to coast past $100 m soon.
Avatar continues to do great. By now, it's probably the #2 film of all time.
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Sat Jan 23, 2010 5:05 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
O wrote: Mojo is up!
Aside from Avatar, The Blind Side had the best drop in the top 10.
21.7% drop, though it lost 19.8% of its theaters this weekend. It's per theater average only dropped 2.4%. Once it passes Twister, it will be WB's 5th biggest original film ever (behind HP1, Batman 1, The Hangover, and I Am Legend).
Looks to get to $240 m, even before Oscar nods are announced. This will be its tenth week in the top 10.
Sherlock Holmes also held quite well this weekend! It's Complicated looks to coast past $100 m soon.
Avatar continues to do great. By now, it's probably the #2 film of all time. Um...did everything else from this year fall off a cliff already? Leap Year and Spy Next Door have disappeared. Sheesh, 2010 is really redefining frontloadedness at this point. Terrible runs so far. Eli drops 57% and Bones 54%. Wow. Does anyone know if we're going to be up this weekend on last year's?
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Sat Jan 23, 2010 5:36 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
Not really, BK. Most of the smaller movies (Leap Year, Daybreakers) lost nearly 1,000 theaters a piece with the new releases. The Spy Next Door faced competition from the exact same type of family movie. The Book of Eli is coming off of a holiday weekend and is a normal action movie. The Lovely Bones is only slightly more frontloaded like a normal chick flick. We've just been used to the holiday season being nice to films! 
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Sat Jan 23, 2010 6:24 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
Avatar's hold is absolutely stunning...down only 12%?! The hell?! Considering its running time and the likely deflated Friday, we'll see a $34-36 million weekend, putting it at $550+ million by the end of its sixth frame...which is just amazing. It will cruise past Titanic's gross on the weekend following the announcement of Oscar nominations. A $700+ million total gross is an absolute lock at this point and $800 million is a possibility.
Legion's opening is fine. I really did not expect it to top Daybreakers' start, considering the way worse reviews, the hokey-looking clips and and the overload of R-rated post-apocalyptic actioners...but looks like the marketing worked and it'll make $17-18 million over the weekend. But I don't expect any solid legs in the long run. In fact, this might still wind up with less than $40 million overall.
The Book of Eli was actually hit less than I expected and now still has a solid shot at $90+ million, though I still see it falling short of $100 million. Nonetheless, it'll be one of Denzel's biggest grossers.
After Race to Witch Mountain's disappointment last year, Tooth Fairy is another let-down. I don't see it making more than $14 million over the weekend and even in the best-case scenario it'll make $50-55 million in total, but likely a bit less. The Rock should really rethink his career choices.
Sherlock Holmes definitely rebounded after initially mediocre holds. We're looking at $190+ million by the end of the weekend, so that $200+ million is definitely happening. It should finish somewhere in the vicinity of $205 million.
It's Complicated is doing very well too and should pass $100 million before the next weekend.
The Blind Side's run is still amazing! Tenth week in the Top 10 as it looks!
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:07 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: Friday Numbers and early weekend guesstimates
Avatar and Blind Side have managed to surprise week after week. Blind Side has done that for 10 weeks now and Avatar is already at its 6th weekend. Whatever happens from now on these are the two best runs of 2009 in my list. They are actually fighting for #1 and #2 in which Avatar definitely has the upper hand 
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Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:08 am |
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