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 January 29-31 Predictions 
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Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
Stallone hasnt really had a hit for 20 years since Rocky Balbo and that wasnt by choice. Besides that, Rambo 3 had a huge drop from part 2 and its distributed by Lions Gate


Mon Jan 25, 2010 4:39 pm
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The Dark Knight

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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
Demolition Man???


It has had significant airplay on TV...

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Mon Jan 25, 2010 5:55 pm
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Sbil

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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
The low tracking for Edge of Darkness is surprising but not THAT surprising. Mel hasn't appeared in a film in almost eight years and probably managed to completely alienate a fair bit of his audience in the meantime.

Decent for When in Rome, though.


Mon Jan 25, 2010 6:30 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
Wow ! that number is incredibly low for Edge, but wasn't Gran Torino an Taken tracking in the mid teens aswell before they opened ? I seriously remember predictions for Torino and Taken not being higher than 14mill opening weekend. Both still broke into the 20's, so the same could very well go for EDGE. Also you have to remember that the 30+ demo doesn't participate in online tracking like the younger crowds do, so who knows how much is really being left out. But, even if Edge opens low I think it will still have great WOM to push it to respectable final numbers.


Mon Jan 25, 2010 8:10 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
Bad tracking for Edge of Darkness. If it would follow tracking, it'd probably gross around $12m this weekend. Of course, it's not written in stone.

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Mon Jan 25, 2010 9:44 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
they're off here. 27 million is happening for edge


Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:18 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
GT was expecting 18 million at best from people.

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Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:49 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
18 or 14 it doesn't really matter ? The fact is it was predicted to open really low, but still brokeout close to 30mill. I'm not expecting the same type of numbers for Edge, but I wouldn't count it out yet.


Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:56 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
wrongturn687 wrote:
Wow ! that number is incredibly low for Edge, but wasn't Gran Torino an Taken tracking in the mid teens aswell before they opened ? I seriously remember predictions for Torino and Taken not being higher than 14mill opening weekend. Both still broke into the 20's, so the same could very well go for EDGE. Also you have to remember that the 30+ demo doesn't participate in online tracking like the younger crowds do, so who knows how much is really being left out. But, even if Edge opens low I think it will still have great WOM to push it to respectable final numbers.


i dont think its just online tracking. i think mtc actually polls people who go to the theaters.

what looks bad for edge of darkness is the rs/mtc gap. very rarely have movies broken out when rs is this ahead of mtc. 90% of times it falls below mtc.

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Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:12 am
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The Wall
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
LadiesMan217 wrote:
wrongturn687 wrote:
Not too suprised about Wolfman since the trailers are everywhere and theres been a ton of hype for this movie ever since the footage debuted at Comi-Con 08. Looks like people are more than ready for a hardcore R rated twist on a classic tale. As for Percy I thought it would be tracking alot better this week, but it's the same as last week. It's strange since t.v spots are everywhere, but it looks like Fox will just have to settle for SW type numbers which I guess isn't good at all.


Yep looks like it will be a disappointment at least domestically. I am starting to think it will be another JUMPER. Around 70-80M domestically and another 140-150M overseas.


Percy won't be that big overseas. I just can't see it.


Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:12 am
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
Hmm, I have a hard time seeing the RS/MTC rule apply this weekend. I mean less than $15 million means a huge disappointment, IMO.

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Tue Jan 26, 2010 7:13 am
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
Something that has proven to be helpful in the past:

http://boxoffice.com/thenews/2010/01/26 ... ate-49.php

Quote:
Edge of Darkness had 545 tweets reference it yesterday on Twitter, a very solid start to the week. In terms of comparison, Law Abiding Citizen had 623 tweets on its Monday before release, Surrogates had 452, and Armored had 173. Overall this is a very solid opening day count, and given a standard week trajectory it could be looking at ~3,000 tweets for the week. Assuming a ratio in the region of ~450 it looks to be on course for a ~$7 million opening day. I'll insert my usual disclaimer of it being early days, but based on Monday it definitely looks good.

When In Rome started slowly on Monday as it managed an underwhelming 272 tweets. Like I said in my preview column yesterday I don't think there has been a good comparison for this film in the last few months since I've been following Tweets closely but for giggles lets look at some of the older skewing romantic comedies that have opened: Love Happens had 177 tweets on its Monday before release, Everybody's Fine had 93, and Did You Hear About the Morgans? had 159. I had thought that Rome would have appealed to a much younger audience in general than the above comparisons but perhaps its closer than I had realized. In addition, due to its generic(ish) name I had to use a search filter ("When in Rome" movie OR poster OR trailer OR screening OR josh OR kristin OR bell OR see) which will no doubt exclude some relevant tweets. At any rate, we are looking at about ~2,000 tweets for the week at this pace which is very low all things considered. Check back tomorrow to see if it picks up and has a greater explosion during the week than average, but as of now a $3 million Friday and high single digit weekend seems to be on the cards at best.


Tue Jan 26, 2010 2:06 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
What about compared to Daybreakers/Book of Eli & Legion? Surely those are useful.

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Tue Jan 26, 2010 2:30 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
Not to sound stupid, but I don't really follow sports and was wondering if there are any sporting events this weekend? :P


Wed Jan 27, 2010 12:27 am
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
Mike wrote:
Not to sound stupid, but I don't really follow sports and was wondering if there are any sporting events this weekend? :P
No football till next week.


Wed Jan 27, 2010 1:26 am
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
http://boxoffice.com/thenews/2010/01/27 ... ate-50.php

Quote:
Edge of Darkness had another very solid day on Tuesday as it rose to 833 tweets. In terms of comparisons, Law Abiding Citizen had 697 tweets on its Tuesday before release, Surrogates had 450, and Armored had 162. Really looking very rosy for the film based on these numbers and the comparisons. Seems as though a $7 million opening day might be its basement.

When In Rome didn't fare quite so well as it had the slightest of bumps Tuesday to 308 tweets. Continuing with some of the comparisons I drew yesterday: Love Happens had 356 tweets on its Tuesday before release, Everybody's Fine had 115, and Did You Hear About the Morgans? had 249. In addition, one decent comparison which somehow alluded me yesterday was Leap Year. That should pull a younger crowd than the previous three comparisons and be more in line with Rome's audience. Both films are tracking neck and neck (Leap Year had 552 tweets after Monday and Tuesday, Rome has 580), and as such it looks like a high single digit opening might be on the cards here.

Check back tomorrow to see the Wednesday numbers and the early weekend predictions.


Wed Jan 27, 2010 12:00 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
1. EDGE OF DARKNESS - 26.4 MILLION
2. AVATAR - 26.2 MILLION
3. BOOK OF ELI - 8.7 MILLION
4. WHEN IN ROME - 8.4 MILLION
5. THE TOOTH FAIRY - 8.1 MILLION
6. LEGION - 7 MILLION
7. THE LOVELY BONES - 4.6 MILLION
8. SHERLOCK HOLMES - 4.6 MILLION
9. IT'S COMPLICATED - 4.5 MILLION
10. EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES - 3.6 MILLION


Wed Jan 27, 2010 2:39 pm
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The Dark Knight

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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
doubting Avatar will fall over 20% this weekend...

It fell 20% this past weekend and its Sunday drop was almost twice as big as it has been in past weeks...


Should stay pretty much flat around 28-31 million.

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Wed Jan 27, 2010 4:27 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
:FINAL WEEKEND PREDICTIONS:

1. Avatar - 28M
2. Edge of Darkness - 25M
3. When in Rome - 11M
4. The Book of Eli - 8.5M
5. The Tooth Fairy- 8M
6. Legion (2010) - 7M
7. The Lovely Bones-4.5M
8. Sherlock Holmes- 4M
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel -3M
10. It's Complicated-2M


Wed Jan 27, 2010 9:27 pm
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Orphan

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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
http://boxoffice.com/thenews/2010/01/28 ... ate-51.php

Quote:
Edge of Darkness cracked the 1,000 tweet mark on Wednesday, coming in with 1,291, a 55% hike from Tuesday's 833 tweets. In terms of comparisons, Law Abiding Citizen had 702 tweets on its Wednesday before release, Surrogates had 742, and Armored had 246. Very solid going here for the movie as it steadily builds an impressive amount of buzz. Expect a ~$8.50 million opening day and $24 million for the weekend.

When In Rome finally showed signs of life on Wednesday with 595 tweets as it almost doubled up its Tuesday tally of 308.In terms of comparisons: Leap Year had 344 tweets on its Wednesday before release, Love Happens had 605, Everybody's Fine had 172, and Did You Hear About the Morgans? had 179. Much better showing and this will likely put it slightly ahead of Leap Year, but bear in mind that Rome should skew to a younger audience which might make it more frontloaded. I'd say to expect a $3.65 million opening day for Friday and $9.5 million for the weekend.


Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:58 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
I think the solid reviews are what's helping EDGE so much. Hopefully it has strong legs.


Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:17 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
1. Avatar - 30.2m
2. Edge of Darkness - 19.5m
3. When in Rome - 15m
4. The Book of Eli - 8.4m
5. The Tooth Fairy- 8.1
6. Legion (2010) - 7.5m
7. The Lovely Bones - 5.1m
8. Sherlock Holmes- 4.6m
9. It's Complicated-4.5m
10. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel -3.8M

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Thu Jan 28, 2010 8:37 pm
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
My derby predix

1. Avatar - 30.0m (-14%)
2. Edge of Darkness - 22.7m
3. The Book of Eli - 8.6m (-45%)
4. When in Rome - 8.4m
5. The Tooth Fairy- 8.0m (-43%)
6. Legion (2010) - 6.3m (-64%)
7. The Lovely Bones - 5.4m (-36%)
8. Sherlock Holmes - 4.3m (-35%)
9. It's Complicated - 4.2m (-28%)
10. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel - 4.0M (-37%)

Top Ten Total - 101.9m (+6% from last year)

Edge of Darkness should end up in the 7k pta with solid reviews, decent buzz, and starpower. Solid, but not spectacular. When in Rome will be in the Leap Year area, with similar polls, buzz, and reviews. Among holdovers, Avatar will have a softer drop than last year with a much better Sunday. Book of Eli has direct competition, but the Sunday will soften the blow. Legion could follow Daybreakers path and drop in the 60% range. Tooth Fairy is a tough one to read, so I used typical drops the Rock gets (mid to low 40% range). Lovely Bones has a theater increase, and actually had a Saturday drop of only 35% last week, signifying a drop in the mid 30% range. Sherlock has a theater drop, but pta drop should be in the low 20% range. Ditto for It's Complicated, theater drop, but slight pta drop. Alvin should get a drop lower than 40% this time. sooo...

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Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:49 am
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
Our predictions

1) Avatar: 29.3M
2) Edge of Darkness 16.5
3) When in Rome: 9.8
4) The Book of Eli: 8.8
5) The Tooth Fairy: 8.1
6) Legion (2010): 6.4
7) The Lovely Bones: 4.9
8) Sherlock Holmes: 4.7
9) Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel: 4.4
10) It's Complicated: 4.2

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Fri Jan 29, 2010 9:26 am
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Post Re: January 29-31 Predictions
My predictions:

1. Avatar - 29.5 (-15.6%)
2. Edge of Darkness - 21.0 ($6,850 average)
3. When in Rome - 10.5 ($4,280 average)
4. The Book of Eli - 8.3 (-47.2%)
5. The Tooth Fairy - 7.4 (-42.9%)
6. Legion - 5.9 (-66.3%)
7. The Lovely Bones - 4.8 (-43.0%)
8. Sherlock Holmes - 4.5 (-32.1%)
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel - 4.4 (-31.3%)
10. It's Complicated - 4.4 (-24.3%)

MTC had Law Abiding Citizen at $15m as well and tends to underestimate films with urban appeal, so going against the MTC<<RS rule this time.

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Fri Jan 29, 2010 1:10 pm
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