Arch, I doubt this will crack $500m worldwide. I hope I'm wrong though.

You're lowballing, $500m is at the very low end I think. Overseas alone, this will do $350m+ easily and I can't see the domestic gross lower than $200m.

Release Dates

Belgium 16 December 2009
Egypt 16 December 2009
France 16 December 2009
Australia 17 December 2009
Croatia 17 December 2009
Germany 17 December 2009
Greece 17 December 2009
Hong Kong 17 December 2009
Hungary 17 December 2009
Israel 17 December 2009
Lebanon 17 December 2009
Malaysia 17 December 2009
Netherlands 17 December 2009
Portugal 17 December 2009
Russia 17 December 2009
Singapore 17 December 2009
Slovenia 17 December 2009
South Korea 17 December 2009
Brazil 18 December 2009
Bulgaria 18 December 2009
Canada 18 December 2009
Denmark 18 December 2009
Estonia 18 December 2009
Finland 18 December 2009
Iceland 18 December 2009
Japan 18 December 2009
Norway 18 December 2009
Romania 18 December 2009
Spain 18 December 2009
Sweden 18 December 2009
Taiwan 18 December 2009
Turkey 18 December 2009
UK 18 December 2009
USA 18 December 2009
Ukraine 18 December 2009

Argentina 1 January 2010
Italy 15 January 2010

---

The sheer amount of territories literally gaurantees a $100m+ opening overseas for a movie of this size. Unlike Wolverine, this movie should perform much better in Europe and will be on a another level in Asia. My prediction is an opening around $125m-$150m.

This year's largest weeks include:

1) Harry Potter 6: HBP - $237m (84/15,900) - Wk. 1
2) Spiderman 3 - $230,544,376 (75/107/16,711) – Wk. 1
3) Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $216,361,000 (102/17,600) – Wk. 1
4) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $193,000,000 (44/13,317) – WK. 1
5) Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen - $165,433,441 (59/9910) – Wk. 2
6) The Da Vinci Code - $155,000,649 (57/12182) – Wk. 1
7) Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $151,697,196 (101/11,652) – Wk. 1
8) Star Wars 3: ROTS - $145,534,793 (114/10489) – Wk. 1
9) Indiana Jones: The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $146,388,656 (55/8427) – WK. 1
10) Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $126.8m (28/7403) – Wk. 1

The Matrix: Revolutions - $119,037,452 (80+/10013) – Wk. 1
Harry Potter 3: POA - $113.51m (24/7885) – Wk. 1
The Matrix: Reloaded - $113.2m (62/8924) – Wk. 2
War Of The Worlds - $110,085,902 (79/9955) – Wk. 1
James Bond: Quantum Of Solace - $107,286,692 (60/10,079) – Wk. 2
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $103,220,000 (103/17,500) – Wk. 2
Angels & Demons - $102,060,465 (or $90,640,130 3-Day - 67/10,284) – Wk. 1
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $101,886,704 (102/12,049) – Wk. 2
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $100,371,299 (56/11,647) – WK. 2
Lord Of The Rings: TTT - $99.8m (27/5400) – Wk. 1
Iron Man - $98,588,581 (56/7588) – Wk. 1
The Simpsons Movie - $96,854,197 ($82,488,432 3-Day - 71/5527) – Wk. 1
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $96,832,449 (42/9488) – Wk. 2
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $94,962,060 (49/8321) – Wk. 2
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $93,927,844 (57/11513) – Wk. 3
The Da Vinci Code - $91,042,386 (58/12179) – Wk. 2
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $85.5m (19/5300) – Wk. 1
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $85m (38/11700) – Wk. 2
The Day After Tomorrow - $85,384,957 (or $109.1m incl. Mon - 110/9276) – Wk. 1
Spiderman 3 - $84,267,521 (73/105/13,799/16,200) – Wk. 2
King Kong - $83,338,788 (56/7028) – Wk. 1
Hancock - $78,860,628 ($65,411,921 3-Day - 55/5759) – Wk. 1
X-Men 3: The Last Stand - $76,262,125 (95/8531) – Wk. 1
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $73,154,892 (101/9364) – Wk. 1

It also opens on January 1 in China, where it's expected to be very, very big..

that's new

um ya I don't expect this to be very very big in china. Probably 80+M but not 100+ no way.

I hope it beats crapformers in china.

Red CLiff Part 2 open in the same slot this year and grossed around $37m. Transformers 2 leads the year with a gross above $55m i think.

Anything above $40m would be huge huge, but i don't think it can surpass Red Cliff: Part 1's $66m. But Titanic's $44m gross is a reasonable target though I think.

Avatar opens on 25th December in Poland but we already have many commercials for Avatar in TV and that's something new. Last movie that had a decent commercial campaign was 2012 and it sold pretty well but the commercials showed up only 10 days before the movie release. This is something new with Avatar.

BTW 2nd biggest Multiplex chain has started selling tickets for the movie and from the ammount of showings ( avg 14 per day and all 3D ) and screens ( avg 4 ) reserved for Avatar it looks like they expect Shrek 3 numbers.

I see around $460 million overseas. Thanks to Asia.

I heard in a French forum that the movie will open there on 450-500 3D screens out of 720...

how about 3d ticket rates in france. Is there any hype for the movie in france.

1207 prints in Russia - new record for Avatar.

is there any hype? would it open in double digits?

It looks like it will have 200+ prints in Poland so a new record too.

AUSTRALIAN Preview:

Cameron's Titanic to this day still rules the All-Time highest grossing charts in Australia with a staggering $58m, almost $8m more than the #2 pic, Shrek 2 ($50.5m). T2 is his 2nd best effort at AUD$14.6m.

Today, blockbuster status is received for movies above AUD$20m with AUD$30m being the realm of uber-blockbusters and AUD$40m for the chart toppers of the year. This year's current record holder is Harry Potter 6 at around $40.5m (#9 alltime) followed closely by Transformers 2 at $40.2m (#10 alltime). Avatar is the only movie left to pose any threat to the top 2. I don't see any of the pics opening over Boxing Day (the most lucrative time to release a movie) such as Sherlocke Holmes posing any threat.

The has been a staggering year so far, with the opening weekend record (previously held by TTT) broken twice; first by HP6 and recently by Twilight: New Moon. You will now need a lofty $16m to take the opening crown. King Kong opened over a similar period as Avatar in 2005 and grossed just over $5m. I don't see Avatar having any problems crossing this mark with an opening anywhere between $7m-$10m possible. This level is also the realm of other openers such as Indiana Jones: Crystal Skull ($9.7m), the recent 2012 ($8.26m), Matrix: Revolutions ($8m), Hancock ($7.6m), T3 ($7.3m).

Overall total wise, I see a gross above $25m likely given the holidays coming up, with $30m+ possible and $40m being the ceiling at this stage. Will need to see how well it opens to see if it has any shot at $40m+.

One correction: Red Cliff Part I didn't gross $66m. It finished with 312m yuan, or $46m.

This year Transformers 2 did $63m, and then Founding of a Republic $62m.

Are you able to post the Top 10 or 5 at least in China for both US$ and yuan?

AVATAR will open in more than 300 3D theaters in Germany, beating A CHRISTMAS CAROL's 3D opening by more than 100 theaters...

I think $7m OW would be fantastic for it. The Boxing Day films look like they'll all be splitting the pie fairly evenly with SH breaking out - so Avatar coming out earlier should help. Total $25-$30m sounds right too.

I'm doing that for each week on my own blog.

Australia will be having previews sessions from post 5pm Wed 16th

Reviews in Australia like the states have been generally positive I think. Though it got a scaving review in The Age, one of Australias leading newspapers.

Though checking rotten tomatoes, it's at 91% which is quite impressive.

Excitement levels for me for this one on a scale to 10 is about a 5-6, i'll probably see it next week with my friends on opening week.

Let's hope this turns out to be one of those movies for me where it was much better than the trailer and the marketing make it out to be.

Just under 2 days out and those 5:30pm sessions are about 5-10% Full so far in most of the bigger cinema chains in Melbourne, Australia.

In comparison, the Friday and weekend tickets are selling about this rate as well.

So the rush out factor has not kicked yet with this one. It should be close to capacity as we get closer to opening day...though i can see this moving playing well through the weekend, so it'll have a fantastic 5-Day gross.

Promotion has been everywhere, definately the biggest marketing push i've seen since like i can't even remember, perhaps Star Wars ROTS.

The only thing setting it back is the 3hr running time, to date, cinemas have only advertised about 4-5 sessions per day currently available for pre-sale. Expect that to increase from Wednesday which is usually the day when cinemas release new programming for the coming week...expect the chains to add a couple more sessions.

With the good reviews coming in and the general buzz around people actually wanting to see this, i give this a shot at AUD$10m for the 5-Days and a gross north of $35m when all is said and done.

Seems like Avatar has really picked up steam in the recent weeks here. The TV-spots are almost unavoidable, there's lots and lots of them everywhere. I'm still concerned about the female audience though. I don't feel it as a dissapointment anymore.