Just because you didn't like them doesn't mean they didn't have strong WOM amongst the people who saw and reviewed those movies.

I'm liking this, only I'd use a smaller Thursday drop and a bigger Friday increase. I feel like it's going to perform more like TDK than HP5 in terms of daily drops.

So....

OD: 65.0m
Thursday: 40.3m (-38%)
Friday: 46.3m (+15%)
Saturday: 51.0m (+10%)
Sunday: 43.4m (-15%)

5-day OW - 246.0m
3-day OW - 140.7m

Now it only needs a 1.93 5-day multiplier to top 475m.

ignore

Wrong thread

1. Get that "65 million Wednesday" outta here
People have work the next day. Its screenings past 6 P.M. wont be nearly strong enough to come anywhere CLOSE to TDKS 67, and thats assuming it somehow makes up for that 18 million midnights TDK got (transformers might get half of that).. Its not batman, its not that cool.

2. The only reason films have such good drops over July 4th weekend is because they are backloaded, audiences avoid it opening day in favor of later on the week. This wont hae both a huge opening day and backlegs. Basically, IF this film tops 60 million on Wednesday, it will have MUCH larger drops than usual. OR its opening day wont be THAT big and itll have more normal drops.

Nobody kid themselves; Transformers 1 had excellent word of mouth. Probably the biggest crowd pleaser since Spiderman 1.

That said, I think all of TDKs records are safe. That 5 day would be better than TDK 7 day gross, which was bigger than the 9 day record back in July.

The point is, that 3 is virtually impossible. Just litterally impossible.

It will open enormous. Midnight will be huge (hopefully, I will be in attendeance for show ). BUT, so will the day-to-day drops. This is how I see it:

The Dark Knight made 49 million during Friday. I see this making about 15% less, so thats about 42 million. I see about 8-10 million in midnights for this, so its total on Friday should be 50-52 million.

Wednesday: 52 million (roughly 10 million from Midnights)
Thursday: 29.4 (-30% from midnightless Friday)
Friday: 34.3m (+17%)
Saturday: 37.9m (+10%)
Sunday: 32.2m (-12%)

Opening weekend: 104.4
5 day: 185.7

With July weekdays, it gets a 2.35 5 day to total multplier, for a total of 440 million.

Its gonna need ENORMOUS midnights for 55 million. TDK made its money opening day from 2 places: 1)MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS (18.6 million), and 2)NIGHTTIME screenings (Buzz was biggest since Sith, reviews outta this world).

Transformers midnights will more than likely not be anything close to TDK's. I would say 10 million is an optimistic guess. Again, for TDK a huge # of people took Fridays off to go at midnight; and you had the 16-22 (people who are off from school and can go to midnights) demographics more hyped over a film than in 5 years. Many of the people who gave TDK its 18 million in midnights cant go to wednesday midnight screenings. Than, many of the ones that even the ones that can wont be as excited. Transformers isnt as cool as Batman. TDK was "the perfect storm" of a release; it got the age group ABLE to go out to midnight screenings more excited than they had been in a long time. Transformers will need that in order to come close to TDKS midnights, and I dont think its possible.

67-8=59 million.

TDK probably made another 30 million in its showings that were past 6 P.M. It sold out pretty much every showing, but theaters gave it more showtimes at night as the audiences naturally expanded because it was Friday night. Thats another luxury Transformers wont have. It would say 20 million during that period is optimistic.

67-8-10=49 million.

Right now I would say 49-50 million is the MAX this movie can get opening day, simply becuase the audiences wont hold up as nighttime sets in. We'll see come June.

These make the rest of your arguement completely meaningless. TDK and SM3 would have probably done the around the same, had they opened on a Wednesday. I mean, SM2 5-day adjusts close to 200m+. Though I feel now that 65m+ Wed. is almost impossible and 40m+ for five days straight is craziness.

Final for now

10.0m midnights
50.0m Wednesday

Thursday: 34.8m (-42%)
Friday: 43.5m (+25%)
Saturday: 47.9m (+10%)
Sunday: 40.7m (-15%)

5-day OW - 226.9m
3-day OW - 132.1m

Oh man...


$246 million 5-day is completely insane.

Hell, not even a new Batman film would make $246 million during five days.

I mean, seriously...Transformers did NOT have better WoM than Pirates. You could argue that it was just as good (and be wrong), but you can't claim it was better.

Dead Man's Chest made less than that in 9 days, I repeat NINE DAYS. So how on earth do you expect Transformers 2 to make more than Dead Man's Chest did in 9 days during 5 days?

It'd also mean it'd make more in 5 days than Shrek 2 did in 12 days (which included Memorial Day weekend).

Not even if Shia, Megan Fox and Michael Bay all die right before the release will that happen

Also...Spider-Man had terrific WoM too...how come Spider-Man 2 didn't even come close to making $50 million opening day? Let alone anything above...

Excel's analysis is good. No way TF2 makes 60M+ on a wednesday. that is just impossible. I doubt it will even hit 50M.

bilge.

True, that's why I lowered it to 225m+, which I think is achievable. Will not be very easy but achievable.

Umm, 50m+ Wednesday is a lock. If HP5 can do 44m+, this can easily break 50m+.

lets not forget that transformers INCREASED on wednesday, 100% guaranteed 55m+ opening day.

As much as i want to agree with O on everything after today, I have to say, I think TDK has pushed up our expectations. I mean, honestly, how many films are over 475m in the history of BO? 2. You really think THIS movie has as much going for it as they did? I don't.
I'd say 300m= guaranteed, 350m= should happen, 400m= fair chance 425= possibly but starting to to stretch 450m= a stretch (unless it is an awesome movie) 475m= a MAJOR Stretch.

I have a feeling Transformers 2 is going to go down in gross, though still respectable, kinda like Spider Man 2. The opening may be a tad higher than the first, though.

Explain to me how that is? Excluding midnights, the dark knight did 49 million on its Friday, where it pretty much sold out every show time, that its why its midnightless friday gross was just about the same as its Saturday (47 million) and Sunday grosses (43). Transformers wont be able to touch this because its nighttime screenings will be far weaker. Than, consider TDK did 18 million in midights, while 3rd place all time in midnight is 10.

You realize that if you assume it will get batmans buzz (which it wont) and start at 67 million. - 10 million in midnights and 8-10 million it wont get in nighttime screenings both of those numbers are totally reasonable: you gets 47 million.

This is a film whose opening is based around an enormous 5 day gross; which could total 200 million. It isnt about getting a huge opening day or getting an huge opening weekend. Its opening on a date that stretches out movie grosses over a # of day instead of cramming it into one.

60 million openign day is absurd and 50 million is borderline out of the question.

HP 5 44 million Wednesday is the current record, and that:
1)was more fanboy driven
2)didnt open on a long holiday weekend that makes movies backloaded

hp5s 44 was extremely frontloaded; all signs with T2 show its opening weekend NOT being that frontloaded. 50 Million is HARDLY a lock. 225 is more realistic but again, will be almost impossible to get.

Wednesday was 4th of july and so it got holiday boost. If I am not wrong every film increased on that day. TF barely doubled its take after its 1st sunday. That is not what I call as a leggy run. Pirates made 4 times its gross as of 1st sunday. TF1 already a hyped film. MTC was tracking it at 150M before release. It had huge pre-sales and had a great 6 1/6 day OW.

I cant think of any film that opened so high and got a huge boost with its sequel. SM, LOTR , HP did not get the boost. TF will behave close to those films than Pirates or Batman.

This is easily most over predicted film in this forum.

You may be more accurate than most posters in this forum. I think 350M is the ceiling for this film bcos I dont see this expanding its fan base.

This film is a borderline lock for 400 million total. Its not about expanding its fanbase as much as it is getting that 'event' feel. The Dark Knight got A LOT of people to go see who wouldnt normally go see a Batman movie because they just wanted to see what all the fuss is about.

I forsee an opening weekend around an opening weekend around 105 and 5 day around 185. Its upcoming weekends should hover around 55, then 30, than 18, (now imax kicks in) 12, 7.5 5, -another 14 in its run.

Thats 141. My equations from back in the day found that weekdays inJuly and August did roughly 96% of the weekend take, so thats 135.8 through that stretch.

185+141+135=461 total, which is about what I see.



No it doesn't. In terms of cinematic appeal, Batman is probably #3 all time behind Star Wars and Indiana Jones. 4 of his 6 movies have held the opening weekend record. The Joker is the #2 movie villain of all time behind Vader.

Its a FACT. Batman mvoies are considered "cool". While Spiderman has mare family appeal, Batman has more appeal to the 16-25 crowds; the corwd that drive midnight screenings. Transformers has appeal to this base, but not nearly as much or dedicated as Batman did. It was the midnights that made Batman so huge, because after that it sold out just about every show that day.

Basically, not counting midnights, 50 million for Transformers is ridiculous. It qould require sellouts in just about every showing.

Those two movies are not comparable though. Think about it: SM is universally known and was long before the film. He's one of the big four (Batman, Superman, Wonderwoman, and Spiderman) everyone knew the character and it was already set up to be a blockbuster. Plus, this was the first real spiederman EVER, which seperates it from BB or whatever. TF is really more comparable to IM, it had a hardcore fanbase but was only somewhat known outside of that. This is why SM2 decreased, and TF2 will increase. SM was already there, TF was an experiment. Now I'm not saying it will increase to over 2.5 the originals BO like BB did, but it will certainly make a lot more money.

i wouldn't be entirely surprised if this happened. depends on the theatrical trailer, i suppose, but then again, not really. Transformers probably ranks as one of the most popular (as in best-liked/most widely seen) movies of the decade, and the sequel promises more of the same. People are gonna freakin' flock to this one, especially after what will probably be a kinda lame June. I'm thinking more like 200m 5-day, 425-450m total... but that's not too far off.

Sure, but the first 'real' Transformers film just came out 2 years ago and is yet to stand the test of time. It's stupid compare it to Batman/Indy/Star Wars in terms of overall cinematic appeal.


You can't conclude with that yet, TF franchise has only released one film. Batman franchise may have 6 films already but is inconsistent in terms of popularity.

I don't know about it decreasing. The Transformers franchise to me has yet to live up to its FULL potential, and this sequel has the perfrect timing to do it. I mean, it has all the hype to itself this time, unlike 2007 when you have three others that made 300m+. It will basically be the first 250m+ film of the year (I doubt any May film will do it.) And no new film will break 150m+ three weeks before it.

Unlike SM2, SM already did the highest possible that it could do, and Shrek 2 in a way affected it, hence the decrease. This is more in Pirates 2 situation in terms of competition/hype and all.