I'm expecting the same second week drop for the video game version too.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:15 pm
BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
That'll definitely be the first movie to not cross 10m. Next week better go back up because so far March has been the weak link for everything. Poor start. Poor holdovers. Huge 2nd weekend drops for the two turds last week. There have been a lot of shitty multipliers to compensate for Taken, Blart etc. Let's see how this month plays out.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:16 pm
Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6328 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
lol street fighter and Jonas.
Excellent opening for Watchmen!
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Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:19 pm
Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm Posts: 4110 Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Benjamin Milk wrote:
I agree with BK, working at a movie theater is pretty boring right now. Looking at these numbers is rather boring. Madea's breakout was awesome, but then it dropped 60% and JB bombed. And then with a totally empty market place Watchmen failed to ignite and will settle for expected numbers. Boring. At my theater we sold about 250 tickets for Watchmen last night (may sound bad but the male college/young adult is by far are worst demographic) and we sold less than that to all other movies combined. So yes, I would call this and especially last weekend dull. I can only hope that RTWM will ignite where watchmen failed to.
But that's just your theatre. The theatres where I live (and I don't live in a big city) have been packed every weekend since Christmas, and I'll bet they had huge turnout for Watchmen last night (I've been out of town for the past couple days, so I don't know for sure).
And Watchmen didn't "fail to ignite." A $58 million opening weekend is pretty damn good, as is a $16,000 average. It's not a jaw-dropping breakout, but those can't be expected every single weekend.
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Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:23 pm
torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm Posts: 16020
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Let's not use the "it's a 3 hour superhero, non-sequel R-rated movie with no star power" joke of an argument. This is one of WB's tentpoles and it expected it reach $100m without any problem: $100m+ budget 3600 theatres Marketing in TDK
WB knew the movie could fly past $40m OW if it could harness marketing potential. While Watchmen's opening day is slightly below "front page newsworthy," that is only because it isn't "shocking" or record breaking.
The film's opening clearly indicates to WB: "we did what we had to do." The opening meets expectations dead-on.
The opening neither says "dark comicbook adaptations with shades of politics are the future -- let's get on that!" nor "dark comicbook adaptations are the past -- let's get off that!"
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:25 pm
Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22205 Location: Places
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Umm...watchmen will reach 100 million..I dont know what some of you are talking about. Looks headed for 140-150.
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Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:29 pm
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Watchmen still could get the 4th biggest opening of all time outside of the summer and Nov/Dec. But most important, we're still up 10% + from last year. The heavily hyped 10000 BC only managed a $36 m opening weekend.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:30 pm
Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm Posts: 24502
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
I'm just happy millions of people have now been exposed to the The McLaughlin Group.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:30 pm
Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25404 Location: Classified
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
This is the most disappointing number since Wall-E. It'll be lucky to make $60M now. First Snyder movie that doesn't over perform.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:33 pm
BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
O wrote:
Watchmen still could get the 4th biggest opening of all time outside of the summer and Nov/Dec. But most important, we're still up 10% + from last year. The heavily hyped 10000 BC only managed a $36 m opening weekend.
But our holdovers are beyond weak. If this month's releases don't make an impact we definitely can't rely on Paul Blart and Taken throughout.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:33 pm
BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Flava'd wrote:
This is the most disappointing number since Wall-E. It'll be lucky to make $60M now. First Snyder movie that doesn't over perform.
Wall-E's weekend was indeed incredibly underwhelming, dropping on a Saturday, sheesh.
But, I'm sure there were others that were pretty disappointing between then and now.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:34 pm
Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25404 Location: Classified
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
BK wrote:
Flava'd wrote:
This is the most disappointing number since Wall-E. It'll be lucky to make $60M now. First Snyder movie that doesn't over perform.
Wall-E's weekend was indeed incredibly underwhelming, dropping on a Saturday, sheesh.
But, I'm sure there were others that were pretty disappointing between then and now.
Not anything as heavily hyped as those two.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:42 pm
Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Oh man, there's some spinning here.
Sorry, but this number is underwhelming. This is the supposedly biggest tentpole since Quantum of Solace. The marketing was HUGE. Widest R-rated release of all-time. Empty opening weekend. Trailers with almost every major blockbuster last year since The Dark Knight. It was everywhere in the magazines, newspapers, on the internet.
With this opening day, it is heading towards a bit less than $60 million over the weekend and will be lucky to make $140 million during its run in the States, grossing less than Taken or Paul Blart, but also a huge chunk less than 300. Running time or not and rating or not...this was supposed to have wide appeal. Obviously WB was wrong, but hell they tried everything and it didn't work, meaning it actually DID DISAPPOINT. It will most likely not make it onto the Top 20 R-rated films of all-time, hell, probably not even the Top 25. Sex and the City, Slumdog Millionaire will end up with a bigger gross, despite the same rating. Oh and let's not forget, Sex and the City is also a 2.5 hours long film that opened to mixed reviews and was originally supposed to appeal only to fans of the TV series. Obviously it broke out, but clearly it had initially less going for it than Watchmen.
Watchmen, making significantly less than $150 million in the States, is a disappointment.
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Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:49 pm
Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm Posts: 11637
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
I think it was just too dark. R rated killed it with its biggest superhero demo 12-18.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:58 pm
Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6328 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Hahaha, the final weekend gross hasn't even been reported and people are already crying over the total?
It did very well. I never got caught up in the fanboy bs that expected a record breaking OW.
The trailers DID NOT sell the story. It's 3 hours, it's R, it's based on something few people had heard of.
I expected an OW of 50m, and this is a pleasant surprise.
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Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:06 pm
Jim Halpert
Stanley Cup
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:52 pm Posts: 6981 Location: Hockey Town
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
yall got caught into a bunch of hype. The simple fact was this did not have the huge appeal that 300 had. I said between 60-65mil. A 58 mil opening is great. Anyone who thought the film was going to pass 200 mil was kidding themselves.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:15 pm
Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25404 Location: Classified
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Nite Owl wrote:
yall got caught into a bunch of hype. The simple fact was this did not have the huge appeal that 300 had. I said between 60-65mil. A 58 mil opening is great. Anyone who thought the film was going to pass 200 mil was kidding themselves.
300 was expected to make like 40 million. Those going to 50 were considered ballsy. Watchmen was tracking at 75...
Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:17 pm
Tuukka
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:35 am Posts: 1830 Location: Helsinki, Finland
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Watchmen did excellent, a bit more than I expected. I never did any official predictions, but I thought it would make 50-55 million. Unfortunately WOM doesn't seem too good among the mainstream, so it will drop rather fast.
It's not the movie's fault if some people did overblown predictions. And 34% of us were in the sub 65 million club.
I'm quoting myself here, a response from "will watchmen open to more or less than 65 million?" thread:
Tuukka wrote:
Less.
In fact I wouldn't be surprised if it would make less than 40 million. This has nothing to do with my own expectations, because I've read the comic, and the film looks really good.
But it has soooooo many things going against it. Like:
1. Uneven marketing. What's the high concept? General audiences most likely still don't have any idea what the story is about, which is traditionally a kiss of death to any film.
2. People compare this with 300, but so far the marketing has lacked the action-packed super coolness that sold 300. And 300 had a very clear, appealing high concept with "300 against one million". People have also compared this with Iron Man, which again also promised more cool action and had a very simple and appealing high concept with "man builds a robot suit to fight evil". Where's the story hook in the marketing of Watchmen? Where are the big action money shots?
3. Watchmen looks in parts cool, but in parts very cheesy and campy. This is intentional, but general audiences most likely don't know, or care, about the satiric aspects of the film.
4. Fanbase isn't big enough to propel it to big numbers. Watchmen is a rather unknown comic, it didn't really become better known until this film started its marketing. But this new awareness isn't the kind of devoted fandom that would religiously go to see the film in the opening weekend.
5. It's almost three hours.
...It did very good.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:20 pm
Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm Posts: 4110 Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Waker of Winds wrote:
Hahaha, the final weekend gross hasn't even been reported and people are already crying over the total?
It did very well. I never got caught up in the fanboy bs that expected a record breaking OW.
The trailers DID NOT sell the story. It's 3 hours, it's R, it's based on something few people had heard of.
Well, but...
1.) It won't be very leggy. The crowd I was with really liked it, but other reports have told far different stories. It seems like a love/hate deal.
2.) I don't see how the trailers could sell a story so intricate and complex. The job of the marketing campaign was to give a general idea and sell the money shots, and I think they did a good enough job at that to justify an opening a bit higher.
3.) I don't think we can apply the argument that few people had heard of the graphic novel. Watchmen isn't some obscure little graphic novel; it's the graphic novel. From what I heard before the show I went to last night started, most of the people within earshot had read it, and I heard quite a bit of discussion about the differences between the graphic novel and the movie on the way out.
It is a strong opening weekend, if that $58 million figure holds, but not as strong as it had the potential to be, so I can definitely see why there's feeling of disappointment. But again, that's assuming it gets right around that $58 million early estimate. If the multiplier is much weaker and it barely scrapes by $50 million for the weekend, then the picture changes.
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Last edited by Webslinger on Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:22 pm
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Another thing I realized was that 300 had a lot more female appeal than Watchmen. Yes, its spinning, but they seem to be all the different box office wise for many major overperformer/underperformers over the past year.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:22 pm
torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm Posts: 16020
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Rorschach wrote:
Nite Owl wrote:
yall got caught into a bunch of hype. The simple fact was this did not have the huge appeal that 300 had. I said between 60-65mil. A 58 mil opening is great. Anyone who thought the film was going to pass 200 mil was kidding themselves.
But the fact is that with a OW like this it probably won't even top 150m. Even if you didn't get caught in the hype, you still were probably thinking 150m+ for it.
Since 2000, only nine movies have passed $150m
Yes, WB had a lot riding on Watchmen, but to consider it a "lock" for $150m is absolutely ridiculous. It was supposed to pass $100m easily, which it will do.
Every other one of those movies reached $150m for different factors. Three were franchises (Hannibal, Matrix Reloaded, Terminator 3). Two were products of very clever marketing and publicity (POTC, Scary Movie, and I would argue 300 here too...where you could have no TV and still know the movie exists). That leaves Gladiator, Wedding Crashers, 300, and Sex and the City...of literally hundreds of R-rated movies over the past nine years.
You can argue that the screen count and marketing budget are huge, but what about films like Ghost Rider or Get Smart or The Dukes of Hazzard? The studios there didn't expect $150m+...that sort of money can only be made by films that transcend certain demographics.
Watchmen's $58m opening will give it a total between $100m and $150m -- which is exactly what WB intended the film to do. Anything above would make it a surprise hit, anything below would make it a surprise flop.
Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:39 pm
Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
da torri wrote:
Rorschach wrote:
Nite Owl wrote:
yall got caught into a bunch of hype. The simple fact was this did not have the huge appeal that 300 had. I said between 60-65mil. A 58 mil opening is great. Anyone who thought the film was going to pass 200 mil was kidding themselves.
But the fact is that with a OW like this it probably won't even top 150m. Even if you didn't get caught in the hype, you still were probably thinking 150m+ for it.
Since 2000, only nine movies have passed $150m
R-rated?
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Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:40 pm
Tuukka
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:35 am Posts: 1830 Location: Helsinki, Finland
Re: Friday Numbers (BOG)
Webslinger wrote:
2.) I don't see how the trailers could sell a story so intricate and complex.
Someone is murdering superheroes to make sure they can't stop the upcoming world war.
It's that simple.
One of the TV spots actually did explain this quite effectively in just 30 seconds, by concentrating on that story hook, which should have been the main hook in all of the marketing. Unfortunately it was just one of 10 TV-spots, and the rest never did it with the same clarity.
The thing is, it's actually quite an intriguing hook. It makes clear how huge the stakes are, it offers an interesting whoddunnit mystery, and makes the villain (whoever he is) quite fearsome, as he is able to kill superheroes.
But I bet almost nobody among the mainstream knows that particular premise.
Last edited by Tuukka on Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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