Beverly Hills could play like Open Season or The Game Plan.

MTC Tracking:

MY BEST FRIEND'S GIRL: 14
LAKEVIEW TERRACE: 9
IGOR: 8
GHOST TOWN: 5

http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?0915132220.notfabio

There has been an inordinate amount of advertising for Ghost Town considering it's very likely to flop and is getting a smallish theater count. I'm looking forward to seeing it because Greg Kinnear is in it.

Lee from Lee's Movie Info is predicting a 19.2 Million opening for Lakeview Terrace.

Here are his predictions so far:

1) Lakeview Terrace in 2450 theaters

Predicted Friday Gross: $6.493 mil
Predicted Saturday Gross: $7.718 mil
Predicted Sunday Gross: $5.023 mil
Predicted Weekend: $19.234 mil

2) My Best Friend's Girl in 2650 theaters

Predicted Friday Gross: $4.373 mil
Predicted Saturday Gross: $4.638 mil
Predicted Sunday Gross: $2.783 mil
Predicted Weekend: $11.794 mil

3) Burn After Reading in 2651 theaters

Predicted Friday Gross: $3.049 mil
Predicted Saturday Gross: $3.844 mil
Predicted Sunday Gross: $2.253 mil
Predicted Weekend: $9.146 mil

4) Righteous Kill in 3152 theaters

Predicted Friday Gross: $2.679 mil
Predicted Saturday Gross: $3.31 mil
Predicted Sunday Gross: $2.049 mil
Predicted Weekend: $8.038 mil

5) Family That Preys in 2070 theaters

Predicted Friday Gross: $2.795 mil
Predicted Saturday Gross: $3.416 mil
Predicted Sunday Gross: $1.76 mil
Predicted Weekend: $7.971 mil


Maybe I should go back to my original instinct of LT doing around 17 Million, or at least bump it back up to the 15.8 Million I first predicted. I could easily see it breaking out.

Lakeview Terrace has been cursed with too generic of a title and too awkward of a plot to break out over 12-13 million, although the reviews have been better than expected, I'll give it that.

On the other hand, I can't see how Ghost Town at least won't break out a tiny bit, with an opening weekend of maybe 6 million if its theater count stays put at 1400. The movie's at 100% still with 9 reviews, and a 7.8 average rating. They're two very different movies, but I'm getting a Gone Baby Gone vibe where this movie may never get the love it deserves in theaters.

My Best Friend's Girl- $13 million
Lakeview Terrace- $11 million
Igor- $8 million
Ghost Town- $6 million

Yes, the part when samuel jackson is sawing off trees and then tries to saw up the guy through the fence is so stupid its hilarious

The stretch from Labor Day to now has to be one of the worst in film history, in terms of quality.

Babylon AD
College
Disaster Movie
Traitor
Bangkok Dangerous
Proud American
Righteous Kill
The Family That Preys
The Women
Burn After Reading
My Best Friend's Girl
Lakeview Terrace
Igor
Ghost Town

That's a swampland... thank god for BAR.

Ghost Town is getting really good reviews.

1. Lakeview Terrace - 14.6
2. My Best Friend's Girl - 13.1
3. Burn After Reading - 10.5
4. Righteous Kill - 8.7
5. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys - 8.6
6. Igor - 7.8
7. The Women - 6.1
8. Ghost Town - 4.7
9. The Dark Knight - 3.0
10. The House Bunny - 3.0

1. My Best Friend's GirL - 14.0m ($5,376 average)
2. Burn After Reading - 10.5m (-45%)
3. Lakeview Terrace - 10.0m ($4,058 average)
4. The FamiLy That Preys - 8.7m (-50%)
5. Igor - 8.5m ($3,634 average)
6. Righteous KiLL - 7.2m (-56%)
7. The Women - 5.2m (-48.5%)
8. The Dark Knight - 2.9m (-29%)
9. Ghost Town - 2.9m ($1,926 average)
10. The House Bunny - 2.6m (-37%)

Top Ten TotaL - 72.5m

1. Lakeview Terrace - 14.7m
2. My Best Friend's GirL - 12.8m
3. Burn After Reading - 10.5m
4. Igor - 10.2m
5. The FamiLy That Preys - 8.6m
6. Ghost Town - 8.0m
7. Righteous KiLL - 7.9m
8. The Women - 5.6m
9. The Dark Knight - 2.9m
10. The House Bunny - 2.7m

1. Lakeview Terrace - 13.1m
2. My Best Friend's Girl - 12.0m
3. Burn After Reading - 10.5m (-45%)
4. Righteous Kill - 8.5m (-48%)
5. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys - 8.2m (-53%)
6. Igor - 6.7m
7. The Women - 6.3m (-37%)
8. Ghost Town - 3.6m
9. The Dark Knight - 3.0m (-27%)
10. The House Bunny - 3.0m (-28%)

Top Ten Total - 74.9m

Lakeview Terrace may look generic to some, but the marketing and screen allocations are quite good. Screen Gems knows how to market thrillers, and Sammy is a good draw for the most part. The PG-13 will help alot as well. So I say this will get a 5k pta.
My Best Friend's Girl should open slightly lower than Good Luck Chuck due to the fact that they don't market the movie with Kate Hudson in her underwear, like they did with Alba in Chuck. So maybe, 1 million lower perhaps.
Igor has no competition, but it also help not enough hype, interest, or marketing. I gave it a high 2k average. Also, MGM is not notorious for selling it's toons.
Ghost Town will be an apt title. The concept itself is a tricky sell, need I say more. Because of this, I can't see a 2500 pta for this.
Among holdovers, Burn After Reading should get a similar drop to Intolerable Cruelty. Righteous Kill drop = 88 Minutes and We Own the Night. Family That Preys should have a larger drop than Why Did I Get Married because the latter faced no competition in it's sophmore weekend, while this one has slight competition, in the comedy and Urban department. The Women should avoid a 40% drop thanks to it's massive Tuesday increase. Dark Knight should hold well for one last time, thanks to this being the last weekend on IMAX. House Bunny will hold on thanks to no new competition (My Best Friends Girl is Rated R, so that is not competition). soo....

Intertops.com betting odds for LakeView Terrace:

LAKEVIEW TERRACE

8 million to 12 million +125

12 million to 16 million +125

16 million or more +220

8 million or less +400
-------------------------------------

1. Lakeview Terrace - 13.5m
2. My Best Friend's Girl - 12.9m
3. Burn After Reading - 11.1m
4. Righteous Kill - 8.6m
5. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys - 8.3m
6. Igor - 8m
7. The Women - 6.3m
8. Ghost Town - 4.7m
9. The Dark Knight - 3m
10. The House Bunny - 2.9m

Final Derby Predictions

1. My Best Friend's Girl - 12.6
2. Burn After Reading - 10.6
3. Lakeview Terrace - 10.4
4. Righteous Kill - 8.7
5. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys - 7.9
6. Igor - 6.4
7. The Women (2008) - 5.4
8. Ghost Town - 4.4
9. The House Bunny - 3
10. The Dark Knight - 2.9
11. Traitor - 1

Our derby:

1. My Best Friend's Girl: 12.1M
2. Burn After Reading: 11.0 (-42.5%)
3. Lakeview Terrace: 10.2
4. Righteous Kill: 8.5 (-48%)
5. Tyler Perry's The Family that Preys: 8.2 (-53%)
6. Igor: 7.3
7. The Women: 6.1 (-40%)
8. Ghost Town: 4.7
9. The House Bunny: 2.9 (-29.5%)
10. The Dark Knight: 2.9 (-30.5%)

No sign of the openers on Moviefone, but there haven't been any updates for hours, so maybe the site just isn't working. Some oddity also about BOM polls, quite weak for most openers, and especially for BFG, that got beaten by Igor, but that probably makes them less reliable than usual. For those reasons, we mainly followed tracking on My Best Friend's Girl and Lakeview Terrace. Many small 3D animated films have had a PTA just a little under 3K (The Wild, Ant Bully, Space Chimps, Happily N'ever After), we went a tad higher that mark on Igor because of the recent lack of films for fids and families and the oddly strong polls. Ghost Town looks moderately solid, has had a good marketing and is getting positive reviews, so it will avoid a failure.
About holdovers, we agree with Scotty on pretty much everything. The 2 PG-13 openers may hurt HB and TDK a little, so we picked 30% drops for them. Identical thoughts on RK, TP and Women, about Burn we think it will hold better than Intolerable Cruelty (gave it a 140% rise today and a safe 3.25 IM).

1. My Best Friend's Girl: 11.5m
2. Burn After Reading: 10.9m
3. Lakeview Terrace: 10.2m
4. Righteous Kill: 8.4m
5. Tyler Perry's The Family that Preys: 7.4m
6. The Women: 6.0m
7. Igor: 5.2m
8. Ghost Town: 5.2m
9. The House Bunny: 2.9m
10. The Dark Knight: 2.9m

Predictions:

1. My Best Friend's Girl - $12.0m ($4,608 PTA)
2. Burn After Reading - $11.0m (-42.5%)
3. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys - $9.0m (-48.2%)
4. Lakeview Terrace - $9.0m ($3,653 PTA)
5. Righteous Kill - $8.5m (-47.8%)
6. Igor - $7.0m ($2,993 PTA)
7. The Women - $5.5m (-45.6%)
8. Ghost Town - $4.0m ($2,658 PTA)
9. The House Bunny - $2.9m (-30.2%)
10. The Dark Knight - $2.8m (-32.2%)