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Outatime
Veteran
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 9:00 pm Posts: 3413 Location: South Florida
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
4-day:
Cloverfield - $48.6m 27 Dresses - $22.0m Mad Money - $8.4m
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 2:57 pm |
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Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm Posts: 4110 Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
27 Dresses should do fine. The sneak previews take away from business, but the response has been the typical "satisfied" one that greets most romantic comedies. And on top of that, Katherine Heigl is a rising star. Not only did she get some very nice cinematic exposure in Knocked Up, but she's on the populat television show Grey's Anatomy. P.S. I Love You is losing steam, so this should have no problem taking over as the chick flick of choice. The sneaks are really all that are stopping it from going over $30 million over the four-day weekend.
Cloverfield is a tough one to call. The viral marketing has been great, but I've heard absolutely nothing about it away from the Internet, and Transformers is the only movie I've seen its trailer with. I think it's going to finish somewhere around Star Wars's opening for the four-day weekend, which would probably put it at around $30 million for the three-day. But realistically, I think this will either be another Snakes on a Plane or a mini-300, and we probably won't have a conclusive idea until Thursday.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:14 pm |
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filmboy
Speed Racer
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:05 pm Posts: 119
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Wrong: Because in Knocked Up she pretty much played second fiddle to Rogen as far as the marketing and the selling point of the film goes. 27 Dresses has her in the lead of a major romcom. That is a step-up
Sorry, but going from a movie like kncocked up to a movie like 27 Dresses is not a Step up at all. i do not care if she is now the star of the film, it is not a Step up. I mean look at the Fat guy from knocked up, he went from being secound fiddle in kcocked up to be the co star of Superbad. that is a Step up. Same thing from Seth Roger. he went from being secound fiddle from the 40 year old Vergin to be the star of knocked up. That is a Step up. just because she is now the star of the film do not mean she has to settle for less.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:32 pm |
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Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm Posts: 4110 Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Actually, it is a step up. She is the focus of the movie. And on top of that, it's also a step up from her supporting role on Grey's Anatomy.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:36 pm |
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filmboy
Speed Racer
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:05 pm Posts: 119
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Webslinger wrote: Actually, it is a step up. She is the focus of the movie. And on top of that, it's also a step up from her supporting role on Grey's Anatomy. So what you are saying is going from a great film to a meh film is a step up because you are now the star of the film. As a fan of hers, I hope for the better. Lets say jerry maguire came out 2 years ago. Would it be a step up for Cuba Gooding jr going from a movie like Jerry to a movie like Daddy day camp because now he is the focus of the film. No. Samething hear. Helgi did a big Step up going from the Ringer to kncocked up. Even if she still was secound. be the focus of a movie do not make it a step up. As a matter of fact the only person who did Step up in this movie was the Director. going from Directing a movie like Step up to a movie like 27 Dresses is is better. Even if both film are meh.
Last edited by filmboy on Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:58 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
filmboy wrote: Wrong: Because in Knocked Up she pretty much played second fiddle to Rogen as far as the marketing and the selling point of the film goes. 27 Dresses has her in the lead of a major romcom. That is a step-up
Sorry, but going from a movie like kncocked up to a movie like 27 Dresses is not a Step up at all. i do not care if she is now the star of the film, it is not a Step up. I mean look at the Fat guy from knocked up, he went from being secound fiddle in kcocked up to be the co star of Superbad. that is a Step up. Same thing from Seth Roger. he went from being secound fiddle from the 40 year old Vergin to be the star of knocked up. That is a Step up. just because she is now the star of the film do not mean she has to settle for less. Being the lead of any high profile major film is a step-up from playing a supporting character even if your movie was a hit. It wasn't thanks to her in any way. 27 Dresses might help her and ensure she will become some kind of a household name...or not. Knocked Up much rather ensured Seth Rogen as a household name.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:01 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
filmboy wrote: Webslinger wrote: Actually, it is a step up. She is the focus of the movie. And on top of that, it's also a step up from her supporting role on Grey's Anatomy. So what you are saying is going from a great film to a meh film is a step up because you are now the star of the film. As a fan of hers, I hope for the better. You confuse two things. It might be a step down quality-wise, but career-wise it is a step-up, there is no arguing that. Especially if the film is successful.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:02 pm |
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filmboy
Speed Racer
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:05 pm Posts: 119
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Dr. Lecter wrote: filmboy wrote: Wrong: Because in Knocked Up she pretty much played second fiddle to Rogen as far as the marketing and the selling point of the film goes. 27 Dresses has her in the lead of a major romcom. That is a step-up
Sorry, but going from a movie like kncocked up to a movie like 27 Dresses is not a Step up at all. i do not care if she is now the star of the film, it is not a Step up. I mean look at the Fat guy from knocked up, he went from being secound fiddle in kcocked up to be the co star of Superbad. that is a Step up. Same thing from Seth Roger. he went from being secound fiddle from the 40 year old Vergin to be the star of knocked up. That is a Step up. just because she is now the star of the film do not mean she has to settle for less. Being the lead of any high profile major film is a step-up from playing a supporting character even if your movie was a hit. It wasn't thanks to her in any way. 27 Dresses might help her and ensure she will become some kind of a household name...or not. Knocked Up much rather ensured Seth Rogen as a household name. Well i am happy that she is now in a lead role but if this is the kind of films she has to do to make it in hollywood then she will pretty much be the next jennifer Aniston other then the next julia Roberts abd that is not good. She is to great to settle for less just to make a hit.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 4:19 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 19747
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
27 Dresses looks awful. Same crap everyone has seen way too many times already, no twists. If people were smart, it'd make less than 10M opening weekend. As it is, it'll make more than 20M.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 7:28 pm |
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thompsoncory
Rachel McAdams Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:13 am Posts: 14628 Location: LA / NYC
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Are we seriously arguing over whether 27 Dresses was a bad career choice for Heigl? It's a leading role in a film that's bound to do well, for a star that has only really had supporting roles in the past and is coming off one of her strongest years ever. It's obviously a step up.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 7:31 pm |
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snack
Extraordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:18 pm Posts: 12159
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Joe wrote: 27 Dresses looks awful. Same crap everyone has seen way too many times already, no twists. If people were smart, it'd make less than 10M opening weekend. As it is, it'll make more than 20M. Okay...I really don't mind when people use comments like "if they were smart, they wouldn't see that" as insults...but Joe...with your taste...I'm not so sure you're qualified to say such things.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 7:32 pm |
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Alfred
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sun Apr 30, 2006 3:29 pm Posts: 429 Location: A place, where birds sing a pretty song and there's always music in the air
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Cloverfield 49m 27 dresses 28m - yes it will do that well IMO Mad Money 6m - a flop all over it
_________________ "This city deserves a better class of criminal and I'm gonna give it to them"
1 billion, come on hit me!
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 7:40 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 19747
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
esnack wrote: Joe wrote: 27 Dresses looks awful. Same crap everyone has seen way too many times already, no twists. If people were smart, it'd make less than 10M opening weekend. As it is, it'll make more than 20M. Okay...I really don't mind when people use comments like "if they were smart, they wouldn't see that" as insults...but Joe...with your taste...I'm not so sure you're qualified to say such things. You forget, I see everything for free so there's no reason not to see everything. One is surprised every once in a while.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 8:15 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm Posts: 28110 Location: Awaiting my fate
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Umm...whoever is thinking that 27 Dresses isn't going to do well is just stupid.
My sneak was just about sold out (in one of the largest theaters)...and the WOM was great from everyone it seemed.
And it was quite delightful too.
_________________ See above.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 8:19 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 19747
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Jeff wrote: Umm...whoever is thinking that 27 Dresses isn't going to do well is just stupid.
My sneak was just about sold out (in one of the largest theaters)...and the WOM was great from everyone it seemed.
And it was quite delightful too. No one other than possibly filmboy is saying it won't do well. We're just saying that we don't want to do well because it looks horrible and Heigl is an outspoken moron.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 8:21 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48678 Location: Arlington, VA
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Apparently the plan is that a big group of five or six of us girls is going to see 27 Dresses probably Friday night. Every girlfriend I have has been asking me (since I'm the resident movie lover of the bunch) when the movie is coming out like every week for over a month now.
Exciteddddd
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 8:46 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48678 Location: Arlington, VA
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
loyalfromlondon wrote: Libs wrote: Apparently the plan is that a big group of five or six of us girls is going to see 27 Dresses probably Friday night. Every girlfriend I have has been asking me (since I'm the resident movie lover of the bunch) when the movie is coming out like every week for over a month now.
Exciteddddd Do you all sit together and generally annoy other theatre patrons? No! Heh. I've generally stopped going to movies with the friends of mine that gabble-gabble too much.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 8:51 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm Posts: 28110 Location: Awaiting my fate
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Joe wrote: Jeff wrote: Umm...whoever is thinking that 27 Dresses isn't going to do well is just stupid.
My sneak was just about sold out (in one of the largest theaters)...and the WOM was great from everyone it seemed.
And it was quite delightful too. No one other than possibly filmboy is saying it won't do well. We're just saying that we don't want to do well because it looks horrible and Heigl is an outspoken moron. A moron? She was positively delightful.
_________________ See above.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 9:25 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm Posts: 28110 Location: Awaiting my fate
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Magnus wrote: I'm really worried people are going to get dissapointed with Cloverfield. I mean, I think my 45m 4-day prediction is VERY optimistic. This film may break the January record and still be called a dissapointment, which is a shame. Even if it "just" gets 40m 4-day, that would be amazing. I'd be willing to almost bet money it won't break $30 million over the 4-day. Anyone remember Snakes on a Plane? Or Grindhouse?
_________________ See above.
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 11:28 pm |
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JMorphin
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:58 am Posts: 1335 Location: Austin, TX
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
It's weird, my fellow managers here at my theater aren't feeling Cloverfield at all either. My GM tried to cancel our midnight of it thinking it wouldn't be worth it. I mean we don't usually have midnight showings in January when school just started. January certainly isn't a kind month for blockbusters other than the Oscar-buzz ones. Still, times are a-changing, and I'm still hoping this could break out along with 27 Dresses. Let's try to beat 2007! 
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 11:44 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 19747
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Jeff wrote: Joe wrote: Jeff wrote: Umm...whoever is thinking that 27 Dresses isn't going to do well is just stupid.
My sneak was just about sold out (in one of the largest theaters)...and the WOM was great from everyone it seemed.
And it was quite delightful too. No one other than possibly filmboy is saying it won't do well. We're just saying that we don't want to do well because it looks horrible and Heigl is an outspoken moron. A moron? She was positively delightful. I'm sure she is...when someone else is writing her lines for her 
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Sun Jan 13, 2008 11:49 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23386 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
JMorphin wrote: It's weird, my fellow managers here at my theater aren't feeling Cloverfield at all either. My GM tried to cancel our midnight of it thinking it wouldn't be worth it. I mean we don't usually have midnight showings in January when school just started. January certainly isn't a kind month for blockbusters other than the Oscar-buzz ones. Still, times are a-changing, and I'm still hoping this could break out along with 27 Dresses. Let's try to beat 2007!  I think for January we will have atleast one $100m grosser - be it Cloverfield or 27 Dresses or Bucket List. Im thinking both Cloverfield and 27 Dresses can do it but as far as upsets go - I wouldnt be surprised if 27 Dresses outgrossed Clover in the long run.
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Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:10 am |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 19747
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Don't count out The Bucket List yet. It seems very likely to have fantastic legs.
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Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:17 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23386 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
Joe wrote: Don't count out The Bucket List yet. It seems very likely to have fantastic legs. Yep - thats why I listed it I wouldnt be surprised if it outgrossed both 27D and Clover.
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:22 am |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 19747
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 Re: January 18-21 Predictions (MLK Weekend)
MadGez wrote: Joe wrote: Don't count out The Bucket List yet. It seems very likely to have fantastic legs. Yep - thats why I listed it I wouldnt be surprised if it outgrossed both 27D and Clover. It's definitely the crowd-pleasing type of movie, at least based on my screening where people clapped at the end. Nicholson is one hell of a draw. All age groups seem to like the guy.
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Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:24 am |
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