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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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This week's tracking, courtest of notfabio:
MTC:
THE HOLIDAY: 18
APOCALYPTO: 14
BLOOD DIAMOND: 11
UNACCOMPANIED MINORS: 5
NATVT down 45%
HPY & JB both down 40%
RS:
THE HOLIDAY: 20
APOCALYPTO: 14
BLOOD DIAMOND: 12
UNACCOMPANIED MINORS: 8
RS Future:
Museum: 34 (debut, I think)
Dreamgirls: 18 (I can't imagine that not being until 1/19 though)
Pursuit of Happiness: 16
Eragon: 28
Charlotte's Web: 23
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| Mon Dec 04, 2006 3:14 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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Disappointing tracking for Blood Diamond. It deserves so much more.
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| Mon Dec 04, 2006 4:22 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48677
Location: Arlington, VA
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Joe wrote: Disappointing tracking for Blood Diamond. It deserves so much more. But Christmas is all about legs, not opening. It could still get to $70M with an $11M opening if it has very good legs.
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| Mon Dec 04, 2006 4:30 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 25192
Location: Classified
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Apocalypto - $16M
The Holiday - $14M
Blood Diamond - $10M
Minors - $6M
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| Tue Dec 05, 2006 5:21 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23258
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Rolling Thunder wrote: This week's tracking, courtest of notfabio:
MTC:
THE HOLIDAY: 18
APOCALYPTO: 14
BLOOD DIAMOND: 11
UNACCOMPANIED MINORS: 5
NATVT down 45%
HPY & JB both down 40%
RS:
THE HOLIDAY: 20
APOCALYPTO: 14
BLOOD DIAMOND: 12
UNACCOMPANIED MINORS: 8
RS Future:
Museum: 34 (debut, I think)
Dreamgirls: 18 (I can't imagine that not being until 1/19 though)
Pursuit of Happiness: 16
Eragon: 28
Charlotte's Web: 23 That sounds about right for Diamond. Perhaps it cam make a little more but it could still aim for a solid gross overall. This looks to be heading into GONY territory.
Eragon looks to be the pick of next weekend. _________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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| Tue Dec 05, 2006 5:45 pm |
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DIB2
All Star Poster
Joined: Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:57 am
Posts: 4669
Location: Anchorage, AK
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Early Predictions
1. The Holiday - 18.9m
2. Happy Feet: 13.0m
3. Blood Diamond - 10.7m
4. Casino Royale: 9.4m
5. Apocalypto - 7.8m
6. Unaccompanied Minors: 7.2m
7. Deja Vu - 6.7m
8. Deck the Halls - 5.1m
9. Nativity Story - 4.6m
10. The Santa Clause 3 - 3.5m
_________________My Most anticipated films of 2015 
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| Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:35 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Box Office Guru: $15m Apocalypto, $15m Holiday, $12m Blood Diamond, $9m Minors
BOR: $17m Holiday, $15m Apocalypto, $13m Blood Diamond, $10m Minors
LMI: $18.2m Holiday, $12.5m Blood Diamond, $10.2m Apocalypto, $7.9m Minors
Weekend Warrior: $17.5m Apocalypto, $15.7m Holiday, $12.3m Blood Diamond, $8.5m Minors
Honestly, I think Lee's has the best prediction for Apocalypto. It's overpredicted.
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| Thu Dec 07, 2006 12:35 pm |
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Nebs
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:01 pm
Posts: 6385
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Diamond $13.1m
Apocalypto $11.3m
The Holiday $8.1m
Minors $5.2m
Feet on top again with $13.3m
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| Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:56 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48677
Location: Arlington, VA
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OoNebsoO wrote: Diamond $13.1m
Apocalypto $11.3m
The Holiday $8.1m
Minors $5.2m
Feet on top again with $13.3m 
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| Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:58 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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Libs wrote: OoNebsoO wrote: Diamond $13.1m
Apocalypto $11.3m
The Holiday $8.1m
Minors $5.2m
Feet on top again with $13.3m Nebs underpredicts 81.84% of all films. 
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| Thu Dec 07, 2006 5:04 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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Very tough weekend, I could see a big range for all the openers, although I will say that I have a feeling The Holiday could be underestimated. Wasn't Failure to Launch tracking similarly?
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| Thu Dec 07, 2006 9:54 pm |
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Dreamline
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:18 pm
Posts: 431
Location: SoCal
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1. The Holiday - 15.2
2. Apocalypto - 14.4
3. Blood Diamond - 12.5
4. Happy Feet - 11.1
5. Casino Royale - 8.5
6. Unaccompanied Minors - 8.1
7. Deja Vu - 6.0
8. The Nativity Story - 5.1
9. Deck the Halls - 3.8
10. The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause - 3.0
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| Thu Dec 07, 2006 9:59 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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1. Holiday: 15.3
2. Apocalypto: 12.6
3. Happy Feet: 11.7
4. Casino Royale: 9.1
5. Blood Diamond: 8.5
6. UM: 7.1
7. Deja Vu: 6.4
8. Nativity Story: 5.5
9. Deck the Halls: 4.1
10. SC: 3.3
For now, I still have about 4 hrs left for change  _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:12 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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BJs Predictions:
1. The Holiday - 20.9m 8,000 PTA
2. Apocalypto - 16.1m 6,000 PTA
3. Blood Diamond - 14.3m 7,500 PTA
4. Happy Feet - 13.2m -24%
5. Unaccompanied Minors - 10.4m 3,700 PTA
6. Casino Royale - 9.8m -35%
7. Deja Vu - 6.8m -38%
8. The Nativity Story - 6.2m -21%
9. Deck the Halls - 4.7m -29%
10. The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause - 3.5m -28%
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 12:39 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23258
Location: Melbourne Australia
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1. The Holiday - 18.9m
2. Apocalypto - 16.3m
3. Blood Diamond - 14.3m
4. Happy Feet - 13.0m
5. Unaccompanied Minors - 10.0m
6. Casino Royale - 9.5m
7. Deja Vu - 6.9m
8. The Nativity Story - 5.9m
9. Deck the Halls - 4.3m
10. The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause - 3.1m
The top 10 will definitely lose out to 2005 as they wont get close to the $75m+ Narnia/Syriana combo.
The Holiday looks strongest but will have some competition from pre-christmas shopping. Its best days are still ahead of it.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 1:01 am |
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Alex Y.
Top Poster
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 4:47 pm
Posts: 5812
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The Holiday - $18
Blood Diamond - $7
Apocalypto - $7
Unaccompanied Minors - $6
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:33 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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The Holiday $19.6 million (7.5k PTA)
Apocalypto $13.8 million (5.5k PTA)
Blood Diamond $11.4 million (6k PTA)
Unaccompanied Minors $6.9 million (2.5k PTA)
I think they're all going to come about in line with expectations except The Holiday a slight bit higher. Rom-Coms always seem to be under-predicted.
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:41 am |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm
Posts: 11838
Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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 My risky predictions.
Apocalypto - 15.0m
The Holiday - 13.1m
Happy Feet - 11.4m
Casino Royale - 9.5m
Blood Diamond - 7.1m
Deja Vu - 6.7m
Unaccompanied Minors - 6.1m
Nativity Story - 5.5m
Deck the Halls - 4.4m
Santa Clause 3 - 3.5m
Top Ten cume - 82.3m
My analysis.
Apocalypto should get a pta similar to Kingdom of Heaven the way tracking and presales are going. Reviews are pretty good too.
The Holiday will get a pta in the low $5000 range, like Two Weeks Notice and Family Stone. It won't reach SGG levels causes reviews are not good enough, and sneaks were not strong enough either.
Blood Diamond is based on the bad capacity at sneaks last Saturday (65% is not a good capitcity number), therefore leads to a sub $4000 pta.
Unwanted Minors will get a pta in the low $2000 range, like Fried Worms, and other lesser Christmas pics, like Home for the Holidays and I'll be Home for Christmas.
As for holdovers.
Happy Feet should feel no effect from those Minors. Blood won't affect Casino Royale and Deja Vu either. Nativity should hold on cause with it's Christmas theme. Deck the Halls and Santa Clause should follow the Kranks pattern.
What do you guys think.
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 5:34 am |
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asalem182
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:44 am
Posts: 2375
Location: Cairo, Egypt
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Final Derby Predictions
1. The Holiday - 16.0
2. Apocalypto - 13.7
3. Blood Diamond - 12.6
4. Happy Feet - 11.6
5. Casino Royale - 9.8
6. Deja Vu - 6.8
7. Unaccompanied Minors - 6.4
8. The Nativity Story - 5.0
9- Deck the Halls - 4.4
10- The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause - 3.5
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 5:50 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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1. The Holiday - $15.7 million (NEW)
2. Happy Feet - $13.2 million (-25%)
3. Apocalypto - $12.8 million (NEW)
4. Blood Diamond - $10.5 million (NEW)
5. Casino Royale - $9.1 million (-40%)
6. Deja Vu - $6.6 million (-40%)
7. Unaccompanied Minors - $5.6 million (NEW)
8. The Nativity Story - $5.1 million (-35%)
9. Deck the Halls - $4.1 million (-38%)
10. The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause - $3.4 million (-30%)
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 7:42 am |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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God, Blood Diamond had better cross 10 million at the very least considering how fantastic it was. If not, it could end up being the first Leonardo DiCaprio film to lose money as even domestic duds like The Beach made over 100 million in foreign markets.
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 10:58 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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1. The Holiday - 16.5
2. Apocalypto - 13.0
3. Happy Feet - 12.0
4. Blood Diamond - 9.5
5. Casino Royale - 9.0
6. Deja Vu - 6.2
7. Unaccompanied Minors - 5.0
8. Deck the Halls - 4.5
9. The Nativity Story - 4.0
10. The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause - 3.5
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 12:15 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Thunder's Forecast:
Apocalypto - $18.3M
The Holiday - $13.4M
Blood Diamond - $9.4M
Uncaccompanied Minors - $4.8M
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 1:37 pm |
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DIB2
All Star Poster
Joined: Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:57 am
Posts: 4669
Location: Anchorage, AK
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Final Predictions
1.The Holiday - 15.6m(5978 PTA)
2.Happy Feet - 12.8m-26.8%
3.Apocalypto- 11.5m(4348 PTA)
4.Blood Diamond - 9.2m(4817 PTA)
5.Casino Royal - 8.9m-41.0%
6.Deja Vu - 6.5m-40.6%
7.Unaccompanied Minors - 6.3m(2270 PTA)
8.Nativity Story - 4.8m-38.8%
9.Deck the Halls - 4.3m-35.5%
10.The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause - 3.5m-28.4%
_________________My Most anticipated films of 2015
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| Fri Dec 08, 2006 10:21 pm |
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sidewinder66
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:46 pm
Posts: 77
Location: Switzerland
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1. The Holiday - 15.6
2. Apocalypto - 14.7
3. Happy Feet - 12.7
4. Blood Diamond - 12.2
5. Casino Royale - 9.2
6. Unaccompanied Minors - 7.7
7. Deja Vu - 6.1
8. The Nativity Story - 4.8
9. Deck the Halls - 4.0
10. The Santa Clause 3 - 3.4
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| Sat Dec 09, 2006 2:09 am |
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