I think spidey 3 will get owned, its between shrek and pirates IMO

Spidey 3

OW:120m
TOTAL:384m

3.2 multiplier

Shrek 3

OW:118m
TOTAL:440m

3.73 multplier

POTC 3

OW:140m
TOTAL:440m

3.145 multiplier

I think Shrek will move to Wednesday, which is a very good move. The second movie wouldn't have opened to $108M if the WOM from Wed/Thur wasn't so positive. Only way it would backfire is if the movie was no good.

I think they're all going to be a hurt a little. Shrek 3 namely because of the overkill in CGI animated movies, and Pirates 3 because of inevitable DMC backlash (someone must not have liked it). For now:

Spider-Man 3
120/380

Shrek the Third
100/390

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
125/400

analogy- in 1950's there were dozens of camera makers.. Two of them, Polaroid-Land and 'brownie'-kodak, went head to head in advertising/appeal to customers... They put themselves into the ring, so to speak.. Guess what? They were both winners while the others faded... point being, competition can help both...

This kind of competion though is going to hurt all three, thus leading to lesser BO $$, which will have the studios crying in their beer that it's just not fair!

I agree that one of them needs to move and POTC I think should be it. Disney doesn't want it's thunder stolen or it's butt kicked by Shrek and Dreamworks! That would mean Dreamworks gasp! might actually have better? animation/movies than Disney? No way is Disney going to capitulate to Dreamworks. As well I'm really beginning to think a backlash may occur with the third POTC movie. This one was panned by alot more critics this time out. Movie goers seemed ignore the critics and went but it may make them more leery next year about going to the third. I honestly don't think it's going to do the same as the current one has.

I agree - POTC was the last one moved into May and I think it will suffer most due to Shrek's 2nd weekend. Its a silly move by Disney. It should move back to July and WB should move Potter to November. Im glad Spidey claimed the first week in May as this will allow it 2 weeks of freedom to rule the BO.

Yup, I say move PotC to July and Harry Potter to November. That would be ideal.

However, I don't know that Disney would be willing to give up the Memorial Day weekend.....

Joy

It depends. Sure, if PotC moves, it might lose some extra cash on Memorial Day weekend, but that would be easily made up for with more weeks of less competition. Placing PotC later in the summer won't matter too much either, I don't think. Sure you might lose weekdays, but does it matter that much when PotC 3 will be so frontloaded anyway? By the time summer is over, the only people left will be repeat viewings from the fans, and fans pay no attention to school or the season when it comes to their movie. (Believe me, I know what it's like to be a fan.)

There has GOT to be a roomful of suits at Disney calculating all this out.

Yeah, didn't think of it that way....

I really think that if Disney makes the smart move and takes PotC3 to July, WB will get scared enough to move HP to November. If they don't, they're stupid.

Would Harry Potter be PotC3's only real competition (though not much of one) if it moved to July? I don't really know the whole exact schedule for next year.

Joy

Comparing franchises:

Star Wars Ep. 1-3 Cumulative Gross: $1.113 Billion
LOTR 1-3: $1.030 BIllion

Spider-man 1 & 2: $777 Million
(needs $336 Million to pass SW, $253 to pass LOTR)
Pirates 1 & 2: $725 Million (projected)
(needs $388 Million to pass SW, $305 to pass LOTR)
Shrek 1 & 2: $709 Million
(needs $404 Million to pass SW, $321 to pass LOTR)

Rank how you think the five franchises will finish against each other after all part 3's are released.

1. Spider-Man
2. Star Wars Prequels
3. Pirates of the Caribbean
4. Shrek
5. Lord of the Rings

This is the Summer 07 schedule as it stands now....

Spider-Man 3 (May 4)
No Reservations (May 4)

Perfect Stranger (May 11)
28 Weeks Later (May 11)

Shrek the Third (May 18 )
1408 (May 18 )

Pirates of the Caribbean: 3 (May 25)

Ocean's 13 (June 8 )
Surf's Up (June 8 )

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (June 15)

Evan Almighty (June 22)

Ratatouille (June 29)
Live Free or Die Hard (June 29)

Transformers (July 4)
License to Wed (July 4)

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (July 13)

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (July 20)

The Simpsons Movie (July 27)
Lars and the Real Girl (July 27)

The Bourne Ultimatum (August 3)
Underdog (August 3)

Rush Hour 3 (August 10)
Nancy Drew (August 10)

Knocked Up (August 17)
Disturbia (August 17)

One Missed Call (August 24)

Thanks, MadGez.

So, since I don't quite recognize all the titles up there from July on, what do you guys think about PotC3's chances should it move to, say, July 13, and Harry Potter move to November?

The Simpsons Movie will do good, but I'm doubting it will have a very wide demographic beyond fans of the show. I don't remember how the previous Bourne movies did, so I'm not sure on that one. Rush Hour 3 should do okay, but I'm not sure just how good it'll do.

The others... well, I'm really not sure what they're about (what genres, cast members, etc.).....

So, if PotC3 moved to July 13, and HP to November, how do you think that'd affect, for better or worse, the box office take of those two movies?

Joy

Ok i am still a newb here but here are my predictions...

Spiderman 3 = 125/405
Shrek the Third = 110/425
PotC 3 = 120 (3 day) 145 (4 day)/450

After Dead Man's Chest i think there is an enormous anticipation to see the third and final.. Even more then the Matrix i am sure. And even people that didn't see it in theaters (I don't know who that would be???? ) will have been able to see it on DVD for 6 months so that should bring in even more people.
As for Shrek..... It will be big, but not that big OW, but have great legs, but will not top the second. It does not have the cliffhanger like Pirates does so not everybody will rush out to see it. I bet alot of people will wait to hear the WOM before they see it.
And then comes Spidey.... I agree that it is probably one of the best superhero franchises out there, but with it just being announced that more movies are for sure to come, people won't be dying waiting in line to see the last Spiderman movie, they will go to see good action.. So it will top the first 2, but doesn't stand a chance to beat Shrek or Pirates, even with the second weekend advantage..
Does this make any sense to anyone else, or am i just rambling?????

Joy, I think POTC3 would be better served in its traditional July slot because fans are use to that time for it and its become a tradition (like LOTR). Furthermore, weekdays in July are magnificent and even better than late May/early June. In May there is no doubt Shrek will hurt Pirates opening weekend and take away screens - so July is optimal. (HP would have to move offcourse)

As for competition - It stronger than 2006 thats for sure - but there is aenough room to breath..here's a synopsis -

Ratatouille (June 29) - Pixar animation about a Rat who lives in a French Restaurant. It should be good for $170-$200m.

Live Free or Die Hard (June 29) - Die Hard 4 - Should be good for about $60-$80m

Transformers (July 4) - Could either be HUGE or dissapoint. Still an iffy one. This will be big with males where as POTC has a larger female fanbase - so minimal effect. Best this could do would be $250m - though $180-$220m is more likely.

License to Wed (July 4) - Romantic comedy

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (July 13) - This will have to move offcourse.

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (July 20) - Comedy starring Adam Sandler and Kevin Jane as two straight firemen who get married in order to qualify for a married couples benefits scheme. Should be about $50-$60m bigger than You Me and Dupree which aslo came out a week after POTC2.

The Simpsons Movie (July 27) - This is a tough one. Could just attract fans of the show - like X files and be good for $80-$100m or do significantly better.

Lars and the Real Girl (July 27) No real competition

The Bourne Ultimatum (August 3) Should be quite big. Bourne Identity did $127m and Bourne Supremacy did about $180m. Look for this to do between $160-$190m.

Underdog (August 3)

Rush Hour 3 (August 10) This will be big but is far enough away from POTC to pose a real threat. It should be good ofr $170-$200m.

Nancy Drew (August 10)


Another alternative would be for Shrek 3 to move to the Winter - say December where it could seriously dominate and HP stays in July. This would allow POTC3 to take its weekend before Memorial Day spot and have to HUGE weekends. Im sure a couple of medium sized films will move in Memorial Day to take avantage - but then Spidey, POTC3 and Shrek would all have more room to breath and all have a better shot at $400m.

I think your estimates are reasonable. Probably a bit higher than I would predict seeing that they are all released so close to each other - but all are possible

There was enormous anticipation to see the thrid and final Matrix?

I think your estimates are reasonable, but ONLY if they move. If they crowd the same month, subtract $50m - $75m for each one -- that's how much I think they will cannabilize.

I still think Pirates should move and let Spidey and Shrek duke it out.
Harry Potter has the most to lose. It's established the pattern of losing box office with each new movie, unlike PotC or Shrek. Potter will be cannabilized the most. And honestly, Harry Potter feels like a fall-winter franchise. Anything with "traditional" magic (as opposed to superhero magic ) goes over better in the dark time of the year.

If Pirates moves, it will do to Transformers exactly what it did to Superman Returns.

...Goblet of Fire outgrossed Chamber of Secrets and Prisoner of Azkaban.

Right. GoF did brilliantly, and I believe it's because it was released in November. The least-grossing HP movie so far is the one movie that didn't get released in November: PoA.

I do think that whatever happens, at least ONE big movie in May NEEDS to move. I think Shrek 3 could do well in the winter months... It's a family-ish movie that could work well in that area.

My ideal world has PotC3 moving to July 13, and HP to November.

Joy

if pirates moves to july it will likely break 400 million.

Potter will do fine in July. Assuming Book 7 is released within a few weeks of July 13th, as rumored, that's going to create a nice little fever-pitch of hype that should balance out smaller summer legs.

Sorry, my bad.

Here's the HP lineup:

HP 1 Nov 2001 $317M Sorcerer's Stone
HP 2 Nov 2002 $262M Chamber of Secrets
HP 3 Jun 2004 $250M Prizoner of Azkaban
HP 4 Nov 2005 $290M Goblet of Fire
HP 5 Jul 2007: $????M Order of Phoenix

HP lost a few fans between the first movie and the sequels, while PotC and Shrek gained fans -- $100M worth each.

The HP series is in a rough spot. They can't release the movies each year because it's too much work, but they don't want to do it every two years because the fanbase (not to mention the actors) will outgrow the series before they're done. So they have to do this half-baked 18-month rotation, which is not ideal either. It confuses the fans, and makes for difficult scheduling against the competition.

In short, HP is just not as strong. It has a consistent fanbase, but it needs a clear field to get much over that. Summer dates hurt it. I really don't know what HP will do. If they go all the way to November, they will screw up their rotation.

I suspect HP5 will be the highest grossing movie internationally next year by some distant, it's almost a cert to do $600m, and very likely to win the WW crown to depending on how well it does domestically. The competition between the big 3 opening in May is likely to kill any of their chances of becoming the top movie WW or int. in '07, but I have a feeling SM3 will finish 1st domestically and might break DMC OW record. I don't see any movie breaking the $400m barrier!

me thought as well

PotC will end up around 390m.-395m.
Spider-Man 3 about 360m.
and Shrek the 3rd will make less than 348m. (it won't break 100m in its opening week, but close -96m.- legs won't be that great, just good.. like 3.5x)

I think HP5 will pass 260m., but just barely.. I believe, one thing that made GoF passed 290m. is because it was full with amazing actions..
(correct me if I'm wrong, I didn't finish reading it yet.. but so far, there's not much)

Spidey 3 will definitely be the loser of the three. Maybe by a large margin.