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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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1. ICE AGE 2: THE MELTDOWN 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,963 21,650,000 5,463 n/a 21,650,000
Absolutely superb for Ice Age 2. I think I predicted $62 m on it, and so happy to see it likely outdo that number. Ice Age 2 is exactly what the market needs right now to really push forward the summer. If this film somehow followed Shrek 2's multiplier, it would get $82 m for the weekend. But with many people still having Spring Break, I assume Friday was stronger than usual. From Ice Age 1's multiplier, it would get $74.4 m. However, I'm going to give Ice Age 2 a 3.3 multiplier, for $71.4 m for the weekend. From that gross, $200 m is a lock, and if the Wild disappoints, it could approach $250 m. Looks like CG animated films are now 2/3 for the year, with 9 more months to go. I think this sets the bar much higher for Cars and Over The Hedge, and Happy Feet, the big four cg animated films of the year, which could all very well end up in the top 25 for the year. When it comes down to it, I think this year it will come down to Ice Age 2 vs Cars for CG animated film #1 spot.
2. INSIDE MAN UNIVERSAL 2,830 4,956,000 1,751 n/a 42,012,000
47.5% drop, but it should recover from that to pull a 40% drop (which everyone clearly had an idea would be the drop).
3. ATL WARNER BROS. 1,602 4,645,000 2,900 n/a 4,645,000
Considering I didn't even hear of this until this week, that's rather good. A strong number for just 1600 theater count.
4. FAILURE TO LAUNCH PARAMOUNT 3,074 2,237,000 728 n/a 68,866,000
Great hold for it. Shouldn't get to $100 m at this rate, but still a very solid number.
5. V FOR VENDETTA WARNER BROS. 2,910 1,975,000 679 n/a 52,332,000
No legs whatsoever. Oh well, still should reach $70 m, which is pretty good.
7. SHE'S THE MAN PARAMOUNT 2,552 1,551,000 608 n/a 23,750,000
Great legs out of this film. Looks horrible, but good #'s regardless.
8. SLITHER UNIVERSAL 1,943 1,358,000 699 n/a 1,358,000
Don't even know what this is, but I assume moviegoers don't either.
9. BASIC INSTINCT 2: RISK ADDICTION MGM/COLUMBIA 1,453 1,132,000 779 n/a 51,440,000
Poor Sharon Stone, she just can't cut a break. Oh well, at least she'll be able to pick up some Razzies.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:15 pm |
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paper
Artie the One-Man Party
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:53 pm Posts: 4632
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I'm kind of upset that IA2 did so well. It makes me angry that a studio can write a half-assed script very similar to the sequel's predecessor, simply make the film LOOK good, and it becomes a huge blockbuster. Yet so many good movies that have so much more thought and time put into their scripts, plot, etc, that are much better made won't even make as much as IA's opening weekend in their entire run.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:15 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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SolC9 wrote: My Projections
ICE AGE 2 - 70.36M (that's a 3.25 multiplier, the original had 3.37) INSIDE MAN - 16.11M ATL - 14.35M FAILURE TO LAUNCH - 6.93M V FOR VENDETTA - 6.56M STAY ALIVE - 4.66M SHE'S THE MAN - 4.68M SLITHER - 3.64M BASIC INSTINCT 2 - 3.31M LARRY THE CABLE GUY - 3.02M
Not to nitpick, but I think the original had a higher multipler (3.44).
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:18 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Libs wrote: Zingaling wrote: XXX: State of the Union made less total than the original made opening weekend.
I don't think it's that uncommon. XXX Ickola and Home Alone 3 were relatively unrelated to the previous films in the series. I know Samuel L. Jackson came back for the second thing, but still. I'm referring to sequels that have a direct link with the first/previous one.
Crocodile Dundee 3 made only $1.2M more then CD2 did its opening weekend. That was another case of very long wait.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:26 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm Posts: 11035
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And some here had IA2 at 38-45mill range.Lol!
Expect an IA 3 in 2009.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:40 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40611
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Amazing for Ice Age 2.
ATL did great as well.
Can't believe Slither flopped that much.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:42 pm |
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getluv
i break the rules, so i don't care
Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 4:28 pm Posts: 20411
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I am going to be rich on HSX tomorrow. I was very short on BI2 and long on ATL! I should of played IA2 though.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:43 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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I bought a 1000 shares in Ice Age 2 a while back. Yay! 
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:45 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40611
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My HSX is going to be wicked tomorrow. Max longing on Ice Age 2, max shorting on Slither and BI2. I should end up about 4 million dollars higher.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:48 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm Posts: 6228
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Bombs away for SLITHER and BASIC INSTINCT.
I still don't know what ATL is.
Slither, imo, looked pretty crap anyway.
FANTASTIC for ICE AGE.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:02 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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Magnus101 wrote: the french man wrote: I'm kind of upset that IA2 did so well. It makes me angry that a studio can write a half-assed script very similar to the sequel's predecessor, simply make the film LOOK good, and it becomes a huge blockbuster. Yet so many good movies that have so much more thought and time put into their scripts, plot, etc, that are much better made won't even make as much as IA's opening weekend in their entire run. See, I would be too(i was mad at Shrek 2 doing so well cause it did a simliar thing), but the BO market-place needed this right now. This doing well shows that the market is alive and isn't dead as many thought it was.
I agree. I'm a firm believer that success breeds success and films like Ice Age and Inside Man ("I" films!") can push people back into the habit of going to the theater and sitting through some other movies.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:16 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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72m-80m for Ice age 2
a 65% saturday increase is required to cross 80m. Shrek2 had a much larger first sautruday increase than the first, perhaps lightning can strike twise.
_________________The Force Awakens
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:18 pm |
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Malcolm
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"Slither, imo, looked pretty crap anyway."
Well, it wasn't crap. SLiTHER was a great movie, and its RT and Metacritic scores back that up. It's just a shame that its marketing was pretty crappy, then add a bad theater count on top of that and of course that adds up to no money.
I don't want this to sound racist or anything like that, but what the fuck with ATL? It seems that ANY movie that is about black people automatically does really good, regardless of what it is. It just really annoys me, as it has been going on for a while now. Some "urban" (that's what it's called, "urban") crap opens in like 1500 theaters and then it gets a 10k avg, because apparently there is a 10k group of people who see any movie that's about black people, wait, i meant "urban". It is just so annoying.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:25 pm |
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headcrush
Angels & Demons
Joined: Mon Sep 12, 2005 7:06 pm Posts: 216
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Dr Malcom wrote: "Slither, imo, looked pretty crap anyway."
Well, it wasn't crap. SLiTHER was a great movie, and its RT and Metacritic scores back that up. It's just a shame that its marketing was pretty crappy, then add a bad theater count on top of that and of course that adds up to no money.
I don't want this to sound racist or anything like that, but what the fuck with ATL? It seems that ANY movie that is about black people automatically does really good, regardless of what it is.
Actually, I'd say you're racist and stupid. Plenty of black movies have flopped. And ATL got decent reviews.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:32 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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andaroo wrote: Magnus101 wrote: the french man wrote: I'm kind of upset that IA2 did so well. It makes me angry that a studio can write a half-assed script very similar to the sequel's predecessor, simply make the film LOOK good, and it becomes a huge blockbuster. Yet so many good movies that have so much more thought and time put into their scripts, plot, etc, that are much better made won't even make as much as IA's opening weekend in their entire run. See, I would be too(i was mad at Shrek 2 doing so well cause it did a simliar thing), but the BO market-place needed this right now. This doing well shows that the market is alive and isn't dead as many thought it was. I agree. I'm a firm believer that success breeds success and films like Ice Age and Inside Man ("I" films!") can push people back into the habit of going to the theater and sitting through some other movies.
I've always used a term of "comfort sequel." The Mummy Returns, Shrek 2, Ice Age 2, HP films, all fit this role. People flock to films in big numbers (often much bigger than the predecessors) even when the film is a carbon copy of the first, just because of the comfort and confidence of seeing a sequel (familiarity) than others. Rush Hour 2 was another one. If Ice Age 2 is any indication, Xmen 3 and POTC 2 could be the next big film to reap the "comfort sequel" benefits. MI3 I'll have to not include in the group, as there are many other factors in play.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:38 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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Dr Malcom wrote: "Slither, imo, looked pretty crap anyway."
Well, it wasn't crap. SLiTHER was a great movie, and its RT and Metacritic scores back that up. It's just a shame that its marketing was pretty crappy, then add a bad theater count on top of that and of course that adds up to no money.
I don't want this to sound racist or anything like that, but what the fuck with ATL? It seems that ANY movie that is about black people automatically does really good, regardless of what it is. It just really annoys me, as it has been going on for a while now. Some "urban" (that's what it's called, "urban") crap opens in like 1500 theaters and then it gets a 10k avg, because apparently there is a 10k group of people who see any movie that's about black people, wait, i meant "urban". It is just so annoying.
If you're going to use reviews to back up your Slither statement, you should use it for ATL as well, which had a surprisingly strong 61% at RT (65% COTC).
So, if you're going to call ATL "urban crap," I think it's fair for someone else to call Slither crap as well.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:39 pm |
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Malcolm
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So apparently say anything about anything that has to do with race and you're racist. "Urban" movies seem to have an opening weekend avg in the 7k-10k range, and then finish in the 27mil-50mil range. I don't see why i am racist for saying that. Also, ATL looks horrible. I am not a fan of "urban" movies that deal with "gangsta" lifestyles where people speak in ebonics and all that fun stuff. I do not care for those kinds of movies as they just seem to perpetuate the stereotype that all black people are like that. I just don't see why a billion of these gang/drugs/prison/etc movies have to be made all the time. I saw SLiTHER last night, and i got a preview of Waste Deep, a movie starring Tyrese as a guy who already has 2 strikes and can't get a 3rd, then someone steals his car (with his son in it) and he has to stop at nothing to get his kid back etc etc. Why? I'm not saying there aren't movie where black people aren't depicted as soon-to-be or already-are criminals, but the fact that these "gangsta" movies still get made just annoys me.
Also, ATL was just the catalyst for this feeling. It was another one of those "urban" movies, albeit this one got pretty good reviews (for some unknown reason, but anyway...)
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:49 pm |
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headcrush
Angels & Demons
Joined: Mon Sep 12, 2005 7:06 pm Posts: 216
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Dr Malcom wrote: "Urban" movies seem to have an opening weekend avg in the 7k-10k range, and then finish in the 27mil-50mil range.
A trip to any boxoffice site will immediately show otherwise. Please head back to Stormfront.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:00 pm |
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Malcolm
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Really? It will immediately show otherwise, then why did Brown Sugar, the Brothers, Baby Boy, the Wood, You Got Served, all have avgs in the 7k-9k area, and all finish with 25-40mil. That all falls into the range of what i said before, so where is the huge error? Also, what is your problem? I don't recall personally attacking you, so why have you targeted me or whatever?
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:08 pm |
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headcrush
Angels & Demons
Joined: Mon Sep 12, 2005 7:06 pm Posts: 216
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Dr Malcom wrote: Really? It will immediately show otherwise, then why did Brown Sugar, the Brothers, Baby Boy, the Wood, You Got Served, all have avgs in the 7k-9k area, and all finish with 25-40mil. That all falls into the range of what i said before, so where is the huge error? Also, what is your problem? I don't recall personally attacking you, so why have you targeted me or whatever?
I must be arguing with a middle schooler.
Dave Chappelle's Block Party, Hooneymooners, The Cookout, Roll Bounce, In the Mix, Something New, Breakin' All the Rules.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:11 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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Dr Malcom wrote: So apparently say anything about anything that has to do with race and you're racist. "Urban" movies seem to have an opening weekend avg in the 7k-10k range, and then finish in the 27mil-50mil range. I don't see why i am racist for saying that. Also, ATL looks horrible. I am not a fan of "urban" movies that deal with "gangsta" lifestyles where people speak in ebonics and all that fun stuff. I do not care for those kinds of movies as they just seem to perpetuate the stereotype that all black people are like that. I just don't see why a billion of these gang/drugs/prison/etc movies have to be made all the time. I saw SLiTHER last night, and i got a preview of Waste Deep, a movie starring Tyrese as a guy who already has 2 strikes and can't get a 3rd, then someone steals his car (with his son in it) and he has to stop at nothing to get his kid back etc etc. Why? I'm not saying there aren't movie where black people aren't depicted as soon-to-be or already-are criminals, but the fact that these "gangsta" movies still get made just annoys me.
Also, ATL was just the catalyst for this feeling. It was another one of those "urban" movies, albeit this one got pretty good reviews (for some unknown reason, but anyway...)
I agree, and I'd say you're right. Most urban movies, even the ones that look stupid, do solid to great. It's funny how the gangsta ones do amazing and then ones about black people who are successful and not criminals (like Something New) don't do so hot. I don't think you're racist either, but you automatically get pegged as such if you say anything negative about an urban movie or something. It's so stupid.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:15 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35249 Location: Minnesota
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headcrush wrote: Dr Malcom wrote: Really? It will immediately show otherwise, then why did Brown Sugar, the Brothers, Baby Boy, the Wood, You Got Served, all have avgs in the 7k-9k area, and all finish with 25-40mil. That all falls into the range of what i said before, so where is the huge error? Also, what is your problem? I don't recall personally attacking you, so why have you targeted me or whatever? I must be arguing with a middle schooler. Dave Chappelle's Block Party, Hooneymooners, The Cookout, Roll Bounce, In the Mix, Something New, Breakin' All the Rules.
But MOST do well. And the ones you mentioned weren't of the gangsta sub-genre of urban movies, which is mostly what we're talking about. Those ones tend to do well. And Honeymooners, Roll Bounce, and In The Mix did well on DVD (well, In The Mix just came out but so far it's successful).
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:19 pm |
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headcrush
Angels & Demons
Joined: Mon Sep 12, 2005 7:06 pm Posts: 216
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Mike wrote: Dr Malcom wrote: So apparently say anything about anything that has to do with race and you're racist. "Urban" movies seem to have an opening weekend avg in the 7k-10k range, and then finish in the 27mil-50mil range. I don't see why i am racist for saying that. Also, ATL looks horrible. I am not a fan of "urban" movies that deal with "gangsta" lifestyles where people speak in ebonics and all that fun stuff. I do not care for those kinds of movies as they just seem to perpetuate the stereotype that all black people are like that. I just don't see why a billion of these gang/drugs/prison/etc movies have to be made all the time. I saw SLiTHER last night, and i got a preview of Waste Deep, a movie starring Tyrese as a guy who already has 2 strikes and can't get a 3rd, then someone steals his car (with his son in it) and he has to stop at nothing to get his kid back etc etc. Why? I'm not saying there aren't movie where black people aren't depicted as soon-to-be or already-are criminals, but the fact that these "gangsta" movies still get made just annoys me.
Also, ATL was just the catalyst for this feeling. It was another one of those "urban" movies, albeit this one got pretty good reviews (for some unknown reason, but anyway...) I agree, and I'd say you're right. Most urban movies, even the ones that look stupid, do solid to great. It's funny how the gangsta ones do amazing and then ones about black people who are successful and not criminals (like Something New) don't do so hot. I don't think you're racist either, but you automatically get pegged as such if you say anything negative about an urban movie or something. It's so stupid.
You can dislike whatever movie you want, but to trash a movie without seeing it just because it's a so-called urban movie (which is what he did) is racist. ATL has good reviews and he attacked it baselessly. Imagine if I attacked Brokeback Mountain without seeing it just because of the subject matter.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:22 pm |
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Malcolm
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First of all, the Honeymooners was some horrible "remake" or something. Also, i deliberately left out Block Party as that is more of a stand-up special or something, like Eddie Murphy's Raw ($6,500 avg) or Martin Lawrence's Runteldat (10k avg).
You're right, all the other ones you mentioned did get "crappy" avgs in the 3k-4k range. So i have some that support my statements, and you have some that support your counter-argument. Why you feel the need to resort to "witty" comments i don't know, as i have been rather calm and never resorted to name calling or anything. Let's just agree to end this as it isn't going anywhere.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:23 pm |
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headcrush
Angels & Demons
Joined: Mon Sep 12, 2005 7:06 pm Posts: 216
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Dr Malcom wrote: First of all, the Honeymooners was some horrible "remake" or something. Also, i deliberately left out Block Party as that is more of a stand-up special or something, like Eddie Murphy's Raw ($6,500 avg) or Martin Lawrence's Runteldat (10k avg). You're right, all the other ones you mentioned did get "crappy" avgs in the 3k-4k range. So i have some that support my statements, and you have some that support your counter-argument. Why you feel the need to resort to "witty" comments i don't know, as i have been rather calm and never resorted to name calling or anything. Let's just agree to end this as it isn't going anywhere.
Block Party is 2/3 music. You have no support. You said all so-called urban movies do well. They do not. Have fun at Stormfront.
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Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:26 pm |
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