I really think Aquamarine is being overpredicted. I've seen pretty much no advertising at all and it won't appeal to anyone that isn't a 12 year old girl. I'm thinking numbers similar to Sleepover.

Glad to see V for Vendetta is tracking well.

I agree laney, I don't think Aquamarine will do shit. Not a single straight male will go to this movie willingly. Throw that in with no marketing, and the fact that it looks like one of the worst movies ever made, and I'm thinking about possibly 3 million opening weekend.

Very high tracking for Aquamarine. There's little chance it'll actually make double digits. The Hills Have Eyes isn't tracking as well as it should be. Ditto for 'Failure to Launch.' Ultraviolet looks to make around what is expected and 16 Blocks should take the #1 slot as TPMFR is going to drop like a rock.

16 blocks with 18 million #1

16 blocks with 18 million #1

16Blocks-$16.5
Ultraviolet-$11.5
BlockParty-$6.0
Aquamarine-$4.5

Weekend Warrior

I think these predictions look good. I definitely see break-out potential for Block Party and Ultraviolet.

Yes and no.

If Block Party opens in 1000 theaters, I wouldn't be amazingly shocked if it got $15M or so.

I'm remembering The Original Kings of Comedy, which also featured far less popular comics.

That's Spike Lee though, and we know urban crowds can push a film to have astronomical PTA. However, Gondry has a good following too. People are eager to see what he comes up with after Eternal Sunshine, similar to how people were waiting for Fernando Meirelles's The Constant Gardener after City of God. So overall, I'll be surprised if the film has a PTA under $10K this weekend.

16 Blocks: 20m
Chapelle: 15m
Ultraviolet: 6m
Aquamarine: 4m

This is under the assumption that Chapelle's movie is opening in a sizeable amount of theaters. If anyone can give more info on that, it'd help all of us I'm sure.

Ok, I'm going with instincts this week:

ULTRAVIOLET 16.6-17.1M (higher)
DAVE CHAPPELLE 12K PTA (=)
16 BLOCKS 10M (=)
AQUAMARINE 4.5M (lower)

Everytime Willis releases a film in Feb/March they flop, this won't be a stellar hit, but it will be on DVD. Teenagers will be bored this weekend, UV will shine and this looks way cooler than AF, Elektra and CW.

...

Xiayun what's your take on UV?

Right on the tracking range. About $12M.

I think either Dave Chappelle's Block Party will surprise at #1 or Madea's Family Reunion surprises by holding onto the #1 spot.

I think so too. His dvds outsell other tv shows like Friends and the Simpsons. His fanbase is unbelievably huge. I would wait for actual theater count to make my decision but if its over 1500 theaters, its a lock for number 1

Dave Chappelle is getting great early reviews.

Hope Chapelle doesn't get #1. He's just not funny. Ultraviolet or 16 Blocks will likely end up with the honor. I doubt many fans of Gondry will bother with the film as ESOTSM is quite a bit different and didn't attract an "urban" audience.

Based on the DVD sales, I'm not sure many agree with you, though.

I agree Gondry is a moot point, no one (well, not many) is going to see Block Party for him. I also don't think Spike Lee made that big of a difference in the success of Original Kings of Comedy six years ago, it had appealing comics.

I think you would agree though that Spike Lee had more to do with the success of his film than Gondry will have with this one. As for the DVD sales, no one has ever said that America is populated with a majority of intelligent people as evidenced by the success of the Blue Collar Comedy DVDs and the subsequent existence of a Larry the Cable Guy movie. Some people like dumb comedy that plays on easily lampooned themes such as race and upbringing/lifestyle (The redneck theme of the Blue Collar releases).

Roll Bounce was an urban documentary yet it made close to 8 million in the first week, there was no star in it or no big name to sell the movie. I cant see how you can say Block Party wont attract an audience. Its not only that his show sell big on dvd but many of times its consistently on the top 10 of cable ratings when it was airing

Well I see it it was an ensemble of inbred redneck lynch mobbing comedians that brought the dvd sales up for the show. Its not like its based entirely on one comedian like Dave Chappelle's show is

looks good, Im glad to see V for Vendetta tracking so well

urgh, they better give Block Party atleast 1200 theaters. With that it'll take #1. I just don't see the point of such a limited release on a movie with a lot of pontential.

I didn't say it wouldn't attract an audience. I said I hope it doesn't because I detest stand-up comedy films, which should just go direct to HBO where they belong. They hardly qualify as movies as they lack a narrative or what would be considered a plot.

Block Party is on Moviefone.

Still no 16 Blocks, despite having a big article on the site itself.