Totally agree with you. 99% of the time it's about recognizing reoccuring patterns in similar releases, genre expectations, and the attraction of star power, as well as a few other things. My basic predicition method is copying last weekend's numbers, looking at how films opened/held up around the same time last year, how the most similar movie to an opener performed when it was released, and what the general PTA should be for the movie which I can eventually narrow down.

With my normal strategy, yeah that's basicly what I do. I don't look at the PTAs of the holdovers though. I just work out the %s.

Same Here. I only predicted using the individual days twice in my life: The weekend of Rumor Has It... and the weekend of Fat Albert. In both cases I had a score lower than 75%.

IMO, predicting using the week-to-week drops is much better and faster.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 19 [col] 19.5 [col] 97.44% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 19 [col] 18.5 [col] 97.30% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 13 [col] 15 [col] 86.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 13 [col] 13 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.6 [col] 10 [col] 86.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.7 [col] 6.7 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.8 [col] 5.3 [col] 90.57% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4 [col] 4.1 [col] 97.56% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3 [col] 2.2 [col] 63.64% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.5 [col] 2.3 [col] 91.30% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]91.05%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 95.35% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 88.18% [/table]

french man, we have a showdown! We actually both predicted the same for Hoodwinked, so I think we'll both lose about 3% to drop to about 91. We kick ass!

I'm not going to lie I really want to win this week...But good luck to ya!
EDIT: After looking at our VERY similar predictions, because of stranger and CG you an edge that I can't probably beat seeing almost all of our other predictions are nearly identical.

Expectedly hit hard with estimates, but still a good score:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 18.9 [col] 21.7 [col] 87.10% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.5 [col] 20.1 [col] 93.03% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 12.2 [col] 15.3 [col] 79.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 12.6 [col] 13.8 [col] 91.30% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 10.3 [col] 10 [col] 97.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.5 [col] 6.8 [col] 95.59% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.7 [col] 5.2 [col] 90.38% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.2 [col] 97.62% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3 [col] 2.5 [col] 80.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.5 [col] 96.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]90.78%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 87.79% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 92.77% [/table]

EDIT: I rise a few hundreths with my 12.2, not 12.1 predict for CG

Sorry, Morphin, but I had to do yours as well:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 19 [col] 20.1 [col] 94.53% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 19 [col] 21.7 [col] 87.56% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 13 [col] 15.3 [col] 84.97% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 13 [col] 13.8 [col] 94.20% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.6 [col] 10 [col] 86.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.7 [col] 6.8 [col] 98.53% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.8 [col] 5.2 [col] 88.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4 [col] 4.2 [col] 95.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3 [col] 2.5 [col] 80.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.5 [col] 2.5 [col] 100.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]90.95%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 90.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 91.37% [/table]

Bastard.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 17.3 [col] 21.7 [col] 79.72% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 13.3 [col] 20.1 [col] 66.17% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 9 [col] 15.3 [col] 58.82% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 13.7 [col] 13.8 [col] 99.28% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9 [col] 10 [col] 90.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.1 [col] 6.8 [col] 95.59% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.4 [col] 5.2 [col] 96.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.2 [col] 4.2 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.4 [col] 2.5 [col] 64.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.5 [col] 96.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]84.57%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 76.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 90.29% [/table]

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 19 [col] 21.7 [col] 87.56% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 20 [col] 20.1 [col] 99.50% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 14 [col] 15.3 [col] 91.50% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 11.5 [col] 13.8 [col] 83.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.1 [col] 10 [col] 91.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.6 [col] 6.8 [col] 88.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.7 [col] 5.2 [col] 71.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.5 [col] 4.2 [col] 92.86% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.1 [col] 2.5 [col] 76.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.7 [col] 2.5 [col] 92.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]87.31%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 90.47% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 85.21% [/table]

By the way, I always calculate the individual days' numbers for holdovers. Could that be part of the reason why I've been the most consistently good predictor of anyone in the Derby over the past eight months? Well, there's no way to know for sure, but it seems to work...

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 17.8 [col] 21.7 [col] 82.03% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 17.1 [col] 20.1 [col] 85.07% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 11.4 [col] 15.3 [col] 74.51% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 12.8 [col] 13.8 [col] 92.75% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.8 [col] 10 [col] 98.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.4 [col] 6.8 [col] 94.12% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.8 [col] 5.2 [col] 69.23% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.2 [col] 4.2 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.6 [col] 2.5 [col] 56.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.8 [col] 2.5 [col] 88.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]83.97%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 83.59% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 84.22% [/table]

Dropped 3.5% from projections

82.13%

I hate this game.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 23.6 [col] 21.7 [col] 91.24% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 17.8 [col] 20.1 [col] 88.56% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 12.8 [col] 15.3 [col] 83.66% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 12.0 [col] 13.8 [col] 86.96% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.9 [col] 10.0 [col] 89.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.8 [col] 6.8 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.8 [col] 5.2 [col] 69.23% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.8 [col] 4.2 [col] 85.71% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.2 [col] 2.5 [col] 72.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.6 [col] 2.5 [col] 96.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]86.24%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 87.60% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 85.32% [/table]

PEACE, Mike.

[table][row]Movie[col]Actual[col]Prediction[col]Score[row]Final Destination 3[col]$20,100,000 [col]$20,100,000 [col]100.00%[row]The Pink Panther[col]$21,700,000 [col]$19,100,000 [col]88.02%[row]Curious George[col]$15,300,000 [col]$12,300,000 [col]80.39%[row]Firewall[col]$13,800,000 [col]$12,700,000 [col]92.03%[row]When a Stranger Calls[col]$10,000,000 [col]$9,300,000 [col]93.00%[row]Big Momma's House 2[col]$6,800,000 [col]$7,300,000 [col]92.65%[row]Nanny McPhee[col]$5,200,000 [col]$6,500,000 [col]75.00%[row]Brokeback Mountain[col]$4,200,000 [col]$3,700,000 [col]88.10%[row]Hoodwinked[col]$2,500,000 [col]$3,400,000 [col]64.00%[row]Something New[col]$2,500,000 [col]$2,700,000 [col]92.00%[row]Overall[col]$102,100,000 [col]$97,100,000 [col]86.52%[/table]

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 19.1 [col] 21.7 [col] 88.02% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.6 [col] 20.1 [col] 92.54% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 11.5 [col] 15.3 [col] 75.16% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 14.2 [col] 13.8 [col] 97.10% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.5 [col] 10 [col] 95.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.7 [col] 6.8 [col] 98.53% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.6 [col] 5.2 [col] 73.08% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 3.7 [col] 4.2 [col] 88.10% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.6 [col] 2.5 [col] 56.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.5 [col] 96.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]85.95%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 88.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 84.45% [/table]

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 20.8 [col] 21.7 [col] 95.85% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.2 [col] 20.1 [col] 94.53% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 13.6 [col] 15.3 [col] 88.89% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 13 [col] 13.8 [col] 94.20% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.6 [col] 10 [col] 86.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.1 [col] 6.8 [col] 95.59% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6 [col] 5.2 [col] 84.62% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.2 [col] 97.62% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.3 [col] 2.5 [col] 68.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 3 [col] 2.5 [col] 80.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]88.53%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 93.37% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 85.30% [/table]

88.8%

Wish I had not played it so safe with Firewall or I'd have a chance to win. Along with Something New, this is the second week in a row I shouldn't have changed an opener at the end.

89.90%, hope the actuals push me over 90.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 22.3 [col] 21.7 [col] 97.24% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 17.4 [col] 20.1 [col] 86.57% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 12.7 [col] 15.3 [col] 83.01% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 15.6 [col] 13.8 [col] 86.96% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.1 [col] 10 [col] 81.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.4 [col] 6.8 [col] 91.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 7.1 [col] 5.2 [col] 63.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 3.3 [col] 4.2 [col] 78.57% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.3 [col] 2.5 [col] 68.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.8 [col] 2.5 [col] 88.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]82.40%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 88.44% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 78.37% [/table]

Well, it's not as completley despicable as it was before. Yay.

FD3 dropping will help me too.

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 12.8 [col] 21.7 [col] 58.99% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 18.2 [col] 20.1 [col] 90.55% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 7.3 [col] 15.3 [col] 47.71% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 16.0 [col] 13.8 [col] 84.06% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.4 [col] 10 [col] 84.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.9 [col] 6.8 [col] 98.53% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.3 [col] 5.2 [col] 78.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.7 [col] 4.2 [col] 88.10% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.9 [col] 2.5 [col] 44.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.7 [col] 2.5 [col] 92.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]76.68%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 70.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 80.91% [/table]

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Pink Panther [col] 19 [col] 21.7 [col] 87.56% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 19 [col] 20.1 [col] 94.53% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 13 [col] 15.3 [col] 84.97% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 13 [col] 13.8 [col] 94.20% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.6 [col] 10 [col] 86.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.7 [col] 6.8 [col] 98.53% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.8 [col] 5.2 [col] 88.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4 [col] 4.2 [col] 95.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3 [col] 2.5 [col] 80.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.5 [col] 2.5 [col] 100.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]90.95%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 90.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 91.37% [/table]

tied???

Edit: Oh, you did mine, haha, we can still tie tomorrow?

Haha, I was just going to respond too. Very close race, but like I said earlier, you've got the edge.
I need (any of these):
-FD3 to stay put or rise
-Stranger to gain a hundred thousand or two
-Big Momma to drop a couple hundred thousand
-Something New to drop to 2.4 or even 2.3

Those are the only movies that can make a difference right now between us!

And btw, Xiayun has 86.59%(calculated out of boredom).

Well I have 90.64, so I'm quite pleased with myself. Looks like it could be a fight for first between myself, french man and JMorphin.

86.68%

85.72%

I really need the Top 3 films to drop with the actuals.