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 Weekend Actuals!! 
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Extraordinary

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Aeon Flux dropped 80% without losing theaters.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:15 pm
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Sbil

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I've been away, and seeing all these numbers confuzzle me.

Is this good for Wolf Creek? Rumor Has It?

How are holds for King Kong and Family Stone? It's hard to interpret these.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:18 pm
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xiayun wrote:
Aeon Flux dropped 80% without losing theaters.


Something tells me it's a mistake. I just don't see why theatres would keep Aeon Flux and drop movies like Potter, Walk the Line etc. I am sure it lost theatres.

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Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:20 pm
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King Kong is pretty much a lock to outdo War of the Worlds, actually.

The Family Stone is doing pretty fine. $60+ million is in store.

Rumor Has It opened a little disappointingly, but it will rebound, I see $60+ million fir it as well.

Fun with Dick and Jane will become another $100+ million grosser for Carrey.

Pride and Prejudice dropped pretty hard, but will still make $35+ million with award buzz.

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Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:24 pm
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Extraordinary

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Libs wrote:
I've been away, and seeing all these numbers confuzzle me.

Is this good for Wolf Creek? Rumor Has It?


Neither are good. Wolf Creek's Monday drop is even more alarming, and combining with its incredibly bad Yahoo grade, I agree with Lecter that it's likely to earn less in 4 days the second weekend than in 2 days the opening weekend.

A $2,653 2-day average for Rumor Has It is only decent. That translate to $3500-4000 3-day PTA, barely on par with In Her Shoes. The grades from all corners aren't encouraging either, so I'm not sure it will have good legs.

Libs wrote:
How are holds for King Kong and Family Stone? It's hard to interpret these.


King Kong didn't hold up well, but it did have a good Sunday and a terrific Monday. Still, it's a huge drop, and it'll take longer to get to $200M.

The Family Stone held up fine, not spectacular, not too bad either.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:26 pm
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Lord of filth

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I don't know why they didn't open Rumor Has It on Friday. Doesn't make sense to me.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:29 pm
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Actually, after having seen Rumor Has It yesterday, I am not surprised by its grade.

Also, I just did some calculations and I expect King Kong to hit $200 million by the end of its 5th weekend, no later than that.

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Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:31 pm
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As I predicted it would, Brokeback Mountain did quiet business on Sat and Sun, and then exploded +48% / +157% on Monday. It should continue to find it's audience in it's newly expanded markets now that the Holiday is over.


Last edited by GCC on Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:34 pm
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Extraordinary

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:huh: BBM increased 48.3% on Monday.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:36 pm
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Lord of filth

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Well... two men boning each other isn't really Christmas fare.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:39 pm
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andaroo wrote:
I don't know why they didn't open Rumor Has It on Friday. Doesn't make sense to me.


You could say the same for most movies opening on Christmas Day.

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Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:40 pm
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Any ideas on how the weekdays will play out for Kong and Narnia?

Will they hold up as good as this particular week did for movies last year or are there too many people busy working considering that Christmas and New Year fell on a Saturday-Sunday?


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:41 pm
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Lord of filth

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Dr. Lecter wrote:
andaroo wrote:
I don't know why they didn't open Rumor Has It on Friday. Doesn't make sense to me.


You could say the same for most movies opening on Christmas Day.

I guess it makes sense when Christmas is on a Tuesday or something... but not when Christmas is on a Sunday or a Saturday. Open that shit on Friday.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:42 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Something tells me it's a mistake. I just don't see why theatres would keep Aeon Flux and drop movies like Potter, Walk the Line etc. I am sure it lost theatres.


Something is weird. Appearantly it was on 800-something theaters from Wed-Sat, then magically gained 2,000+ theaters again.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:43 pm
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Jon Lyrik wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Something tells me it's a mistake. I just don't see why theatres would keep Aeon Flux and drop movies like Potter, Walk the Line etc. I am sure it lost theatres.


Something is weird. Appearantly it was on 800-something theaters from Wed-Sat, then magically gained 2,000+ theaters again.


Satan is at work.

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Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:44 pm
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Sbil

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xiayun wrote:


A $2,653 2-day average for Rumor Has It is only decent. That translate to $3500-4000 3-day PTA, barely on par with In Her Shoes. The grades from all corners aren't encouraging either, so I'm not sure it will have good legs


Thanks for the response. In the case of Rumor Has It, though, wouldn't a weekend PTA not matter so much, especially since it was only around for Christmas and the following two days? This seems like the prime example of a movie that would make its holiday coin during the week, so it seems like it is an alright number. I think it can still manage $50M.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:46 pm
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Thw weekdays for Narnia and Kong will be huge.

This is what I see (and I am being pessimistic I think):

King Kong:

Tuesday - $8.4 million
Wednesday - $7.5 million
Thursday - $6.8 million

Narnia:

Tuesday - $9.1 million
Wednesday - $8 million
Thursday - $7.2 million

Fun with Dick and Jane:

Tuesday - $5.1 million
Wednesday - $4.6 million
Thursday - $4.2 million

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Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:48 pm
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Libs wrote:
xiayun wrote:


A $2,653 2-day average for Rumor Has It is only decent. That translate to $3500-4000 3-day PTA, barely on par with In Her Shoes. The grades from all corners aren't encouraging either, so I'm not sure it will have good legs


Thanks for the response. In the case of Rumor Has It, though, wouldn't a weekend PTA not matter so much, especially since it was only around for Christmas and the following two days? This seems like the prime example of a movie that would make its holiday coin during the week, so it seems like it is an alright number. I think it can still manage $50M.


Well, it had two days, but xiayun did project the PTA for a 3-day weekend and that was not too great.

You are right, though, this really seems like a movie that will make lots of cash during the upcoming week. I was seeing Just like Heaven tonight (excellent movie) at my theatre and Rumor Has It was the night's 2nd biggest seller, behind Kong. Its 8:15 pm showing was 70% full in a 287-seater.

I think it will make $60+ million in the States. I see it at around $26-28 million by the end of Monday.

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Last edited by Dr. Lecter on Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:50 pm
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Lord of filth

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I dunno. A lot of people here had Monday off.

Since Xmas is kind of over, the Xmas appeal of Narnia should start to wear off, but also Kong's running length works against it on the weekdays.

So we should pretty much be at the same place again this time next week.

Nothing opens wide this week so it will probably be Kong #1 for a 3rd week, I'm guessing. Could be Narnia too. But one of those two. Maybe Rumor has an outside chance.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:51 pm
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Extraordinary

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Libs wrote:
xiayun wrote:


A $2,653 2-day average for Rumor Has It is only decent. That translate to $3500-4000 3-day PTA, barely on par with In Her Shoes. The grades from all corners aren't encouraging either, so I'm not sure it will have good legs


Thanks for the response. In the case of Rumor Has It, though, wouldn't a weekend PTA not matter so much, especially since it was only around for Christmas and the following two days? This seems like the prime example of a movie that would make its holiday coin during the week, so it seems like it is an alright number. I think it can still manage $50M.


It'll do alright the first couple of weeks. Long-term prospect is the one I'm not sure about, and I don't expect it to stay long enough in theaters to earn much more than $50M.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:51 pm
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I am pretty sure Narnia will win next weekend, for the 4-day span.

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Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:52 pm
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Extraordinary

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andaroo wrote:
Nothing opens wide this week so it will probably be Kong #1 for a 3rd week, I'm guessing. Could be Narnia too. But one of those two. Maybe Rumor has an outside chance.


You're joking, Andrew.


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:53 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Thw weekdays for Narnia and Kong will be huge.

This is what I see (and I am being pessimistic I think):

King Kong:

Tuesday - $8.4 million
Wednesday - $7.5 million
Thursday - $6.8 million

Narnia:

Tuesday - $9.1 million
Wednesday - $8 million
Thursday - $7.2 million

Fun with Dick and Jane:

Tuesday - $5.1 million
Wednesday - $4.6 million
Thursday - $4.2 million


Indeed, those are super pessimistic :ohmy:

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Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:53 pm
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Lord of filth

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xiayun wrote:
andaroo wrote:
Nothing opens wide this week so it will probably be Kong #1 for a 3rd week, I'm guessing. Could be Narnia too. But one of those two. Maybe Rumor has an outside chance.


You're joking, Andrew.

Was saying that bad? Me bad? :(


Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:57 pm
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andaroo wrote:
I dunno. A lot of people here had Monday off.

Since Xmas is kind of over, the Xmas appeal of Narnia should start to wear off, but also Kong's running length works against it on the weekdays.

So we should pretty much be at the same place again this time next week.

Nothing opens wide this week so it will probably be Kong #1 for a 3rd week, I'm guessing. Could be Narnia too. But one of those two. Maybe Rumor has an outside chance.


Narnia isn't much of a Christmas movie. I mean if it was it would have dropped on Sunday and wouldn't have had a big increase. See films like TPE and Elf...I am sure it will increase next weekend, whereas Kong might have a small sub-10% fall.

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Tue Dec 27, 2005 8:58 pm
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