That Narnia prediction is flat out rediculous

Oh dude, you wanted 40m this weekend. It's frontloaded.

Ok, I'll be nice and give it 17.5m/25m

David, I think you overestimate the effect of Christmas Eve falling on Saturday. I think Sunday will cancel it out mostly.

scew that, I predict a 20m+ wknd with or without christmas falling on saturday.

Last year did not see good drops, and it had an even better situation with Sat and Sun being 25-26. That could not overcome the negative effect of Friday.

Then again, from what I read in this thread, some theatres might stay open on Christmas Eve due to it falling on Sat and that would make the drops milder than you'd expect.

Yep, that gives me good hopes for an awesome weekend. I'm thinking that because of the very fact that it is a saturday and a lot of theatres will just stay open anyways, that Christmas Eve may not be as traditionally poor as usual.

PEACE, Mike.

If there are enough theaters open on the night of Christmas Eve, I think Memoirs will benefit the most since it attracts a higher percentage of Asian audience, who don't necessarily follow the Christmas tradition (not to make broad generalization, but in term of percentage). Lunar New Year is more important to us.

King Kong is the movie to be hurt the most by closed theatres because King Kong obviously plays the best at night and not at matinee showings.

Jewish movies will do best, such as, um....nevermind.

Well, not necessarily.

It played fine on Saturday when there was no school. It shouldn't be a problem next weekend when everyone is on Winter Break.

I think Lecter is right, everyone I know that has seen the film went to a later showing, heck even Im going to a later showing today the 10:30pm last show of the day, OH YEAH! ! ! ! !

(Breath in) Here goes:

4-day totals:

1 King Kong $44.1 m
2 Cheaper by the Dozen 2 3,000+ $32.4 m
3 The Chronicles of Narnia $32.14 m
4 Fun with Dick and Jane 3,000 $28.5 m
5 The Family Stone $13.6 m
6 Rumor Has It 2,800 $9.23 m (2-day)
7 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $7.87 m
8 Memoirs of a Geisha 1,400 $7.25 m (It wont have the greatest expansion)
9 The Ringer 1,600+ $6.16 m (Could really get lost in the bunch)
10 Munich 525 $5.5 m (Could get lost in the shuffle, it could do quite a bit less)
11 Walk The Line $4.89 m
12 Wolf Creek 1,700 $4.3 m (Will get lost in the shuffle, but being the only horror flick will still get some change) (2day tally)
13 Syriana $3.96 m
14 Brokeback Mountain 120+ $3.9 m
15 The Producers 1,000+ $3.6 m (Will get lost in the shuffle) (2day)

(Breath out)

BJs Prediction for Kong:

Fri: 13.24m +50%

Sat: 8.20m -40%

Sun: 16.56m +102%

Wknd: 38m

Mon: 20.20m +20%

4-day-Total for Kong: 58.20m

I went on a Saturday for my second viewing and caught a showing at 3 pm. It was about 10% full. The showing at 8 pm, on the same screen was about 70-75% full, though. I think it does make quite a difference.

I can find that possible for 3-day, but way too low for 4-day. This is not Kung-Fu Hustle here where people outside the main cities had no interests in the movie and were put off by the trailer. Memoirs is an international best seller that has core fanbase for both its source material and its cast.

3 day predictions:
King Kong:30.9
Fun with Dick and Jane:21.3
Cheaper by the Dozen 2:23.4
Narnia:20.6
Munich:7.8
Memoirs of a Geisha:9.4
The Ringer:4.1

Memoirs of a Geisha should make around $7.7 million next weekend (3-day) and around $8-8.5 million the weekend after that.

To be honest, there are WAY to many things that were predicted, that in that whole process of predicting for 15 movies, I wouldn't be surprised if I was off +-50% for some of those, its just THAT type of weekend. Frankly, I'm metaphorically exhausted just from making my weekend predictions! I don't know very much about Memoirs, but did have interest in Tiger, Hero, Flying, etc, but Memoirs just hasn't interested me as much at this point and its partly reflected in the prediction. Up until last weekend, Brokeback and Geisha were the big Oscar contenders starting up (others have been around for a while). But the expanding Munich, and Producers, I think will hurt Memoirs more, than it will Brokeback, because Brokeback is becoming the best picture frontrunner, but Geisha's steam seems to be cooling after the Golden Globe announcements. But I would not be surprised at all if I'm WAY off, there's just way to much to predict.

The first 3 weekends of Dec. have had 5 wide openers/wide expanders. This upcoming 4 day weekend has 8. So its going to be a huge free for all.

You're going pretty low.

Actually pretty high, I'd say.

Mark my words: This will be one of my top 3 worst Derby finishes this year.

This is the make-or-breaker for all of the folks at the top of the yearly best list. So many new/expanding films to tackle, so there is plenty of room for error. I'm not involved with that, but figured I'd point out the obvious. Hehe.

I'm going to predict just because it's going to be so much fun.

PEACE, Mike.

I missed a good 30 weeks, seeing I didn't even start the derby until at least May I believe; I think I had a shot at top 25 for the year, so next year I'll go for perfect attendance

Just to see how hard the Christmas weekend is, here is last year's derby result:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/games/derb ... m?game=148

Only two people above 80%, 12 over 75%, 52 over 70%. One could gain 200 points on someone from this weekend alone.

This weekend will only be harder.