superman returns predictons
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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I hate adjusted numbers. It totally does us no good to compare movies like that.
But people forget that Batman Forever was a massive, massive hit. It was #2 for the year!
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Tue Oct 04, 2005 11:36 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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El_Masked_esteROIDe_user wrote: It has none of the hype of the first Superman movie and the second Superman movie dropped quite drastically from the first one. The first Superman movie is still pretty fresh in the minds of people over the age of 30 so they wont really have that much interest in it. What you are almost saying is that the next Superman is just going to match pretty close to the first one. 300 vs 370 million isnt that much off. Even Batman Begins despite getting better acclaim than Batman Returns and Forever didnt match their number domestically so why should Superman get that close to Superman 1 or for that matter Superman 2 in inflated numbers
Didn't have the hype of the first film? I was 9 years old when that came out, and movies didn't have hype back then like they do now. Nobody had a clue that superman was even coming out in 1978 the year before. Superman has tremendous family appeal. Spider-Man type family appeal, that characters like Batman and the X-Men don't have.
I'm over 30 and I have much interest in Superman Returns. I think it has serious box office potential. Mega-blockbuster type numbers are possible.
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Tue Oct 04, 2005 11:41 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22199 Location: Places
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lets see....
people only saw supes 1 and 2(3 &4made no money cuase they sucked)
so the last superman film that people remember is 25 years old and was great. im sure they have fond memories of them, where as with say batman, it was only 8 years and people hated the last 2 films though they made money.
where as with star wars, people, like superman, remembered all the old movies and lvoed them and they were about 20 years old. so if we go by what historys proven, hype for superman will huge.
so your saying being fresh in 30 old minds makes it old? well it sure as hell didnt make the star wars prequels old now did it? nice argument...
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:05 am |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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excel wrote: lets see....
people only saw supes 1 and 2(3 &4made no money cuase they sucked)
so the last superman film that people remember is 25 years old and was great. im sure they have fond memories of them, where as with say batman, it was only 8 years and people hated the last 2 films though they made money.
where as with star wars, people, like superman, remembered all the old movies and lvoed them and they were about 20 years old. so if we go by what historys proven, hype for superman will huge.
so your saying being fresh in 30 old minds makes it old? well it sure as hell didnt make the star wars prequels old now did it? nice argument...
You really are comparing Superman to Star Wars. Thats a laugh because at least Star Wars has consistency in the box office with each movie as opposed to Superman that decreased with each movie. You cant really compare Superman to Star Wars at all and if people dont remember much about Superman then why was there such importance over Christopher Reeves death as opposed to being a flash in the pan news
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:12 am |
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The_Game_1
Star Trek XI
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:00 pm Posts: 343
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No one's mentioned it here, but it's got Pirates of the Caribbean on it's second week, and that one has a shot at $80m-$100m+ opening.
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:28 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40537
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Superman is much bigger and much more accesible to a movie than Batman. In the 70s when it came out it pretty much became one of the biggest box-office phenomenoms of its time(came before Star Wars right?). Superman 2 still made a fine total. Superman is an icon. On the other hand Batman is a grimy, griping angry man who isn't techincally a superhero, rather a vigilante man with alot of utilitys and fighting skills who hides under a armored costume. Hes much darker, and unfortunatly folks, Batman Begins while great to us, was simply no fun for the kids. Superman is more universal and more effects-wise good for a uber-blockbuster movie, similar to the Spiderman effect. It'll be all over McHappy Meals, it'll have posters everywhere, tons of bang bang advertising, SNL parodys, and more. Did anyone see Bruce Wayne beating the crap out of and hanging thugs from roofs while growling disturbing threats on any Happy Meals? Nah.
I think the dormant wait will help. This way it isn't a sequel to the past movies, its more of a new start to kick some ass again. Alot of the audience, 12-13 year old kids, will in no way have seen the original 78 version or sequel. They won't care about that movie. This is more like a readaptation, except with a bigger budget and bigger base. Think Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. If we go by that ratio, 60-some/200-some, then with Supes 150 first movie, this would make over 450. It won't be that much, but it'll be plenty big. I stick with 300 mil+.
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:28 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22199 Location: Places
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whats the 150 stand for?
but yeah superman should be very big. the 2 things(and big things) it has on pirates its been a while since its been out so im sure the media will be all over superman returns. superman will steal a LOT of pirates press,you can bet. also supermans merchandise(toys,ect)will be all over the plac where as pirates doesnt have toys or other attractions to offer. all it can offer is its movie where with superman you'll toys, tie ins, boards games, tee shirts, sound track singles, ect.
also-if superman opens to 100 million, pirates will not be able to earn anymore then 70 million opening. its virtually impossible to have 2 back-to-back 70 million+ openers.
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:38 am |
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The_Game_1
Star Trek XI
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:00 pm Posts: 343
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excel wrote: also-if superman opens to 100 million, pirates will not be able to earn anymore then 70 million opening. its virtually impossible to have 2 back-to-back 70 million+ openers.
Look at May 2003, and Planet of the Apes ($68.5m)/ Rush Hour 2 ($67.4m). It's possible.
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:56 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am Posts: 18501
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Maverikk wrote: This will be huge with kids, and that will push it over 300 million. unless Bryan Singer tries to make Supes "edgy", which would be a mistake and an insult to the character and his fanbase.
Count on Singer giving this character an Edge if you will because in the end, this was an 80's character that worked well back then, but today's audience do not care for a goody too shoes character like this.. Comparing this to SPIDERMAN when the character of Peter Parker showed he had REAL LIFE Problems that today's moviegoers can relate to, unlike Clark Kent who's as squeeky clean as it gets.. What do you do with a character like Clark Kent that we haven't already seen before?? I just don't think today's generation will embrace this the way it was back in the late 70's.. We were a much different audience back then Mav..
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 3:10 am |
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Amos
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 10:54 pm Posts: 1585 Location: New Zealand
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I'd peg this lower, but I think it should grab a $60m opening at the very lowest simply because Fantastic Four almost got there and this has more hype, a bigger fanbase and a "from the director of" marketing attachment that might actually make a difference for once considering he was behind one of the biggest hit series' of the genre. If the trailer looks cheesy and shit then maybe I'll lower it, though again that didn't hurt Fantastic Four.
$67m opening, maybe $185m total tops.
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 3:54 am |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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BKB_The_Man wrote: Comparing this to SPIDERMAN when the character of Peter Parker showed he had REAL LIFE Problems that today's moviegoers can relate to
As if Superman hasn't real life problems... What about his relationship with Lois Lane?
As for what i think it'll do at the box office, hard to tell, a bit too soon for making predictions, it should cross $200m though.
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:56 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23357 Location: Melbourne Australia
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I dont think this will be as big as some people expect - but it wont totally flop either.
Id say $75m/244m
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:56 am |
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dar
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 9:01 pm Posts: 1702
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BKB_The_Man wrote: Maverikk wrote: This will be huge with kids, and that will push it over 300 million. unless Bryan Singer tries to make Supes "edgy", which would be a mistake and an insult to the character and his fanbase. Count on Singer giving this character an Edge if you will because in the end, this was an 80's character that worked well back then, but today's audience do not care for a goody too shoes character like this.. Comparing this to SPIDERMAN when the character of Peter Parker showed he had REAL LIFE Problems that today's moviegoers can relate to, unlike Clark Kent who's as squeeky clean as it gets.. What do you do with a character like Clark Kent that we haven't already seen before?? I just don't think today's generation will embrace this the way it was back in the late 70's.. We were a much different audience back then Mav..
Never thought I´d say this... but I agree with you.
In any case, I think Superman (And most important, Clarck kent) can be given more depth than the usual "goody too shoes" things without actually betraying the origins. If anyone can, Bryan Singer and his screenwriters are talented enough to pull it off, methinks.
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:17 am |
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Captain Muha
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2005 3:42 am Posts: 995
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i cannot see how this movie cannot get a weekend opening higher than the hulk and i cannot see it grossing less than x-men 2.
supes will pull in 85/275
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:48 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32613 Location: the last free city
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it'll surprise the HELL outta some of you.
i just hope they don't change the release date. keep it on a friday PLEASE!! 
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:00 pm |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am Posts: 30505 Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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barring any cheesy trailers for this one ... you're looking at 200 mil easy.
if the trailers continue in the tradition of a fat thighed small shield bearing goofy 1 sheets, well ...
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:42 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40537
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And Superman has his problems. That was pretty much the complete basis of Superman II, one which Spiderman II whole-hearatedly ripped off. And Smallville anyone? That show thrives on his burden traits.
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:18 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22199 Location: Places
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i think the entire superman story(his clark kent/superman duel, the lois lane love story,ect), hell the whole "superman at cinema" expirience is too big, to...mainstream to not get atleast 250 million. id say-if the iflm is any good-250 million-340 tops. i think itll be good and open absolutly huge-possibly sith sized but pirates will chop its legs in 2, which will make i stop around 325 million in the u.s.
if its bad though, were looking at 245 million. i think this film will open-baring it opens as scheduled on a friday-to a minimum of 75 million, 85 probable, 100 million possible.
with bad reviews:
opening-70 3 day-110 5 day
end total-245
overseas-325
ww total=570 million
with mixed-most negative-
opening-80 3 day-125 5 day
end total-260 l
overseas-360
ww total-620 million
with mixed-mostly postive
opening-90 million 3 day-140 5 day
end total-300
overseas-425
ww total-725 million
with all positive-
105 million opening-150 5 day
end total-325
overseas-500
ww total-825 million
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Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:51 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am Posts: 11130 Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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I think people are bored with Superman, I said it tons of times already that Superman is an uninteresting character and the only way it really has a shot at over 200m is if it really gets the kids attention, but I dont think Singer will really take that route plus Pirates will take alot away from it, not to mention the fact a completely unknown actor is taking the role on ( sure Tobey wasnt that big during before Spider-Man, but he did have some movies under his belt that made quite a few $$$ and it did have a solid cast )
If it's truely an amazing film it could have great legs and get it alot more then I expect it to make, but I dont buy that right now so i'll just say...
Opening - 71m
Total - 175m
I doubt excel that with bad reviews all around it would have a shot at that much, hasnt happened yet with comic flicks that comic flick with bad reviews got over 200m.
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Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:03 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22199 Location: Places
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the intersting characers really mattered for episode 1 and 3 right? interestign characters goes only so far. in the summer time, its been proven, audience prefer biud get specieal effects driven films. it was spiderman in 04, star wars in 05, matrix reloaded in 03, spiderman/star wars in 02. and in 06, superman is the big special effects filled flick. its a lock for 250 million as it stands right.
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Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:45 am |
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COMICGUY
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2005 2:11 am Posts: 1649 Location: NOVA SCOTIA,CANADA
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The name SUPERMAN and with Bryan Singer directing will ensure this movie will make $250 million domestic.I will have to wait for a trailer and to see how much marketing this movie will have to make any other predictions.
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Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:53 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40537
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To be fair, Epi. I had its fair share of ultra-appealing characters. Alot of them made the movie shite for us, but for alot it added more need to see it. Young Anakin, Darth Maul, the pod-racers, the boss bug guy(forget name), Jar-Jar, Mace Windu by Samuel L. Jackson, Ben Kenobi by Ewan McGregor, Quikonjin by Liam Neeson, and some more. They pretty much excelled there, it was just the movie failed to be made well.
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Last edited by Shack on Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:58 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22199 Location: Places
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marketing will be key. but with its massiv 250 million dollar budget, id assum the marketing will be there-it would have to be, actually. also, its known that the film i supposably getting an absurd amount of tie ins, most recently revelon hair products deiced to make kate bosworth their revelon girl for summer 06, and at the yearly nyc markeitng convention superman was reportedly by far the most busy....the line into the superman room was out the door and pics from inside with companies cutting deals with w.b. show the room is absolutly packed, so id guess that companies who do tie ins defiently think this will be big....
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Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:59 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22199 Location: Places
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Shack wrote: To be fair, Epi. I had its fair share of ultra-appealing characters. Alot of them made the movie shite for us, but for alot it added more need to see it. Young Anakin, Darth Maul, the pod-racers, the boss bug guy(forget name), Jar-Jar, Mace Windu by Samuel L. Jackson, Ben Kenobi by Ewan McGregor, Quikonjin by Liam Neeson, and some more. They pretty much excelled there, it was just the movie failed to be made well.
depends really. im very anxious to find out who the physical villlain in superman returns is. by you could argue people really wanna see kevin spacey as lex luthor, or frank langella as perry white, or sam huntington as jimmy olsen, or kate bosworth as lois lane, ect. a lot will depend on the physical villain as darth maul was a huge selling point of episode 1. if its that alien named tyzor that was mentioned, then we wont know if hell be cool or not.
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Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:04 am |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am Posts: 11130 Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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excel wrote: the intersting characers really mattered for episode 1 and 3 right? interestign characters goes only so far. in the summer time, its been proven, audience prefer biud get specieal effects driven films. it was spiderman in 04, star wars in 05, matrix reloaded in 03, spiderman/star wars in 02. and in 06, superman is the big special effects filled flick. its a lock for 250 million as it stands right. Yeah it actually really matters when you guys are pushing this movie over 200m on character name alone, which is so wrong to begin with. Saying its a lock because of big special effect is such a completely absurd comment, thats such a dumb reason to belive a movie is a lock for 250m. How do you know that the special effects are so amazing that people will see it on that alone? Have you seen the movie? How was it?
Seriously stick with the argument that Superman is incredibly popular so it'll make 200m easy, it makes more sense then it's a lock for 250m because of it's special effects 
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Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:32 am |
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